Date: May 17, 2023

Lots of Creeping Going On

Markets sniffed a little weakness into the close on Tuesday. That’s about all I can say. It was another dull, have/have not, kind of day. The NASDAQ 100 has crept higher. The S&P 500 has crept sideways. The S&P 400 and Russell 2000 have crept lower. Tech sectors are doing well. Banks are groping for a bottom. Discretionary is percolating for a move higher. Most other sectors and a tad weak. Everything is incremental.

It seems like most people are standing pat until the debt ceiling issue is settled. I think more and more people are becoming worried about it but that sentiment is not showing up in the data. My pure guess is that markets will look more like the BREXIT scare than the 2011 meltdown. If that’s the case then we should see a quick and sharp decline over a few days that becomes another solid buying opportunity. I think almost everyone believes the debt ceiling will resolve, whether that’s before or after the cliff is hit. The U.S. will not truly default on its debt and not pay.

I keep seeing Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen, play Chicken Little in the media with politicians following suit. They claim 2 million job losses and soaring interest rates amidst a deep recession. I wish they would give it a rest. The political theater is embarrassing. That is technically true IF a deal is NEVER made. Does anyone on earth really believe that is even remotely possible? Of course not. Neither side will get what it wants. That’s called compromise, something that has been sorely missing in politics for more than 20 years.

On Tuesday we sold RYU, FUTY, EMR and some ECL.


Paul Schatz, President, Heritage Capital