Markets Firm As Election Draws Closer – Some Model Inputs
Greetings from Dallas where I am attending my semi-annual industry conference, moderating a few panels and catching up with old friends and colleagues. A group of us had dinner last night and I got to spend lots of time with my friend and former partner, Dave Moenning who among the great guys I know in the industry. While the formal presentations are fantastic, there is nothing better than networking to learn how people run their business, their successes and failures.
T minus 8 days and counting until the election. The heat and rhetoric have been turned up by both campaigns, but no one seems to really care. Markets continue to behave extremely well which is a little surprising. Perhaps the election will be a “sell the news” opportunity. Or, maybe it will cause a surge higher.
On the flight yesterday, I started updating my election model. Kamala Harris scored the point linked to the economy with the data through Friday. That’s not up for debate. The model doesn’t care about “feelings” on inflation. It’s just the way I created the model decades ago. She also scored the point linked to longer-term stock market performance. That’s as far as I got so far.
Today is a seasonally very weak day although the pre-market indications show strength. That is followed by super strong seasonal strength the rest of the week. While the other four major stock market indices have stronger, look at the Dow Industrials below. That index has been down five straight days. If the market rallies from here, I would think the Dow should get some oversold bounce love.
On Wednesday I am going to talk about pundits’ views that the Donald Trump asset classes and sectors are forecasting a victory.
On Friday we sold some XLRE.
