Date: April 30, 2022

Negative GDP Growth Already?

Coming in to 2022 one of my main economic themes was slowing growth without recession. That would be accompanied by decelerating earnings growth and finally a blink by the Fed late in the year.

On Thursday we got a first glimpse at Q1 GDP which came in at -1.4%, well below estimates of +1%. Yes; I know that people will rationalize it away because it was “inventory”, but facts are facts. I did not see the economy shrinking this early in the year after the massive amount of stimulus passed in 2021.

Oddly, the markets were nonplussed. No one seemed to care. However, stocks were already down double digits so it wasn’t as if markets were whistling past the graveyard. April has not been kind to the markets and there is still one more day that looks ugly at the start with more mega cap tech stocks having earnings woes.

I will have more on the markets with a new video this weekend.

On Wednesday we bought levered Russell 2000, levered inverse S&P 500 and more levered NDX. On Thursday we bought IJT and GDX. We sold SPY.


Paul Schatz, President, Heritage Capital