Although the media keeps saying how surprised they are about the strength this week, it was in the cards last week and I wrote about it in all posts. It’s really amazing how they try to spin a new narrative to back up the price again. Last week, it was about the teetering banking system and how easy it is to create a bank run. Who would be next? Or, would Yellen’s and the FDIC’s measures save the system from Armageddon. This week all we are hearing is about a possible change in sentiment and pivot to stocks.
I will say this, I know an awful lot of portfolio managers came into March with oodles of cash and I do not sense that many have deployed that cash. There are just so many people, like Magic Mike Wilson of Morgan Stanley, who pitched their bearish tent and refuse to cede the way. In Mike’s case he turned bear in April 2023, made a few wrong forays into the bull camp and painted himself into a corner. In February he began to recognize that he may be wrong so he gave his bear case until today for prices to break or else he would concede. Then he doubled down on the negative side and completely dismissed the bull run. It is dizzying to follow.
Let me continue to be clear. I came into 2023 with the most bullish forecast around. I also front loaded it, meaning that I saw more upside in the earlier in the year than later. So far, so good but that’s not the point. While I remain positive on the “risk on” markets and that’s certainly been expressed in our portfolios, I am not married to a scenario nor will I die on the hill of a scenario. If the data change, I will change. I don’t know when I started saying this, but I would be thrilled to always be wrong and have clients make money. Although some or many think I have an ego, that’s never been the case when it comes to investing. Everyday is an opportunity to learn and get better. If I ever write that I have the keys to the kingdom, please stop reading, fire me and go elsewhere.
I don’t know how I got this far and I didn’t get to the theme of the blog, but I guess I will save that for Monday. The strong seasonals for stocks are working out well this week with one day left. I do not expect any downside surprises from the bears. The indices are approaching or have already exceeded the short-term lines in the sand and the bulls are winning all battles. 2023 highs are up next and I doubt they will be as easy to conquer.
March and Q1 end today. Our quarterly client webinar is scheduled for Tuesday at 6pm where I review Q1, the events and market moving news, performance of our strategies and a sneak peak at what lies ahead in Q2.
It’s Final Four weekend for the men and women in the NCAA tournament. For the first time in 12 years, the UCONN women will be home. However, the UCONN Men are back and they play the U of Miami on Saturday. LET’S GO HUSKIES!
On Wednesday we bought TGNA, URA, QQEW, USHY and mic cap value funds. We sold QQQ, levered S&P 500 and mid cap growth funds. On Thursday we bought EEM, SSO, PCY, more high yield funds and more USHY. We sold JAAA and PTSNX.
