Date: October 1, 2018

Q4 is Here But Market Still Biding Time

I cannot believe Q4 begins today. That’s just crazy. My grandmother continues to be right when she told me years ago that the older you get, the quicker time flies by. That woman who has always been my favorite family member never gave me bad advice and always listened to me. Even the night before she passed in her sleep at the young age of 98, she told me to only buy investments that go up. I should leave the ones that go down to other people.

Stocks closed Q3 on a quiet note, but it looks like Monday is going to see some upside fireworks to begin the day as news of a new NAFTA deal with Canada has been finalized over the weekend. While that’s a long-term positive economically, it doesn’t change my outlook for weakness ahead in the stock market. The window is open for at least a few weeks.

What if I am wrong?

That’s the question I get a lot. Well folks, it won’t be the first time and it won’t be the last. I play the odds. And the odds favor a cessation of the rally before heading to Dow 27K and higher. If I am wrong, we should see market internals or the market’s foundation strengthen over the coming weeks instead of continuing to deteriorate. Sector leadership should improve and the number of stocks making new lows should decline significantly.

We’ll see.

For now, let’s look to Wednesday night and American League Wild Card game between my Yankees and the As. The game is a toss up, but even if my team wins, I think the Red Sox will make short of them in the next series.


Paul Schatz, President, Heritage Capital