Date: November 25, 2020

Seasonal Trends Cranking Up

There has been so much written about the strong seasonal trends this week, specifically Wednesday and Friday. They are historically strong days, followed by next Monday being seasonally weak. The details do not matter. However, let’s remember that stocks have been in rally mode since October 30 with barely a whiff of weakness. Don’t be surprised if some or much of the seasonal tailwind dissipates.

And while on the topic of positive tailwinds, we know the period from November through April is seasonally strong,  but nothing to base investing decisions on. Getting a little more granular, when stocks are up on the year heading into Thanksgiving, the rest of the year is up more than 90% of the time. That’s powerful and something that supports my theme of buying any and all weakness. However, within this super strong period, there is also a tendency to see one bout of weakness next month which I will go into next week.

If you haven’t been following the stock market this week, the Dow hit 30,000. I know none of my readers are surprised as I have been writing about it since Dow 18,000.


Paul Schatz, President, Heritage Capital