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Date: March 4, 2024

Small Caps Beat The Bears – NYCB Did Not

The markets sure have been resilient. In the strongest of uptrends which this clearly is, all the bears get are 1-3 day pullbacks where they all wonder, “is this it, the top?” Last week, the S&P 500 had a very mild early week pullback along with the NASDAQ 100. By weeks end, they were at fresh all-time highs.

At the same time the two aforementioned indices were slightly declining, the Russell 2000 index of small companies was going up. You know the Russell. It was the same index that the masses left for dead as foreshadowing an ongoing or new bear market. How’s that going for the bears?

The masses were so certain the index seen below was going to break below its 2022 and then 2023 which would cause a cascade or crash. All I heard was what percent the Russell was down from its 2021 peak. What the bears forgot was how much it was up from its low. That’s a losing bearish mentality.

I remember after stocks bottomed in 2009 how many people would only quote how much the market was still down from its 2007 high, not how much it was from the lows.It took those people five years to knock off the nonsense as they missed a 100% rally. Serious professionals do not think this way.

Lastly, I will leave you with New York Community Bank (NYCB) which I have been commenting about for a few weeks, especially on Twitter. It did survive another weekend. When it collapsed to $6, I said it was highly unlikely to survive. A few of those paid actor pundits on TV were pumping the stock right before it plummeted. Then they doubled down and said their research indicated all was OK. But the best was when these anonymous trolls started coming after me with these nonsense comments about “tangible book value” and “strong management”. They said that I had no clue how to value the bank and it was going to $10. That may be the case, but I will end with this. No stock in an uptrend ever went to $0, bankruptcy or insolvency. And most stocks that fall under $5 do not recover.

 

On Friday we bought PMPIX and more TGNA.

Author:

Paul Schatz, President, Heritage Capital