Tariffs Creating Investor Anxiety
Tariffs on. Tariffs off. I sense this to be a theme going forward. The longer this lasts and the more times it happens, the more the markets will price in the outcome, whatever that may be. You already know my feelings about tariffs and protectionism. I won’t rehash that everyday.
In my 2025 Fearless Forecast I wrote that one of my themes was that 2025 will fell worse than it actually is. Look at the S&P 500 below. It’s really only a day or two from all-time highs. Markets can’t be that concerned about the economy. And I am not either, at least not for the first half of 2025.
I have been surprised at how many questions and comments I have been receiving regarding geopolitics. For most of 2024, folks were very worried about the election, regardless of political persuasion. Now, I am getting lots of concern over tariffs, foreign policy and the new administration. To be crystal clear, my belief is that there is more noise than substance, more bark than bite. The news is in our faces 24/7 and they don’t get eyeballs and attention without shocking people out of their comfort zones.
Q1 is about market digestion. As I have said, there should be a 10%+ correction coming this year and that’s the golden buying opportunity for 2025.
On Monday we bought more MQQQ. We sold some V. On Tuesday we bought BFEB and XLB. We sold FJUL and SSO.
