Date: September 1, 2023

The Spookiness of September Arrives

I keep chatting with folks who bemoan the end of summer because kids are back to school or they work in education. I had news for them. Summer ain’t over. Just like Punxsutawney Phil the groundhog, I see another 6 weeks of summer or pretty close. While ski season is less than 100 days away, I have no plans on mentally preparing just yet.

August ended with a little whimper. Stocks sold off into the close while still in a bull market. That usually leads to a bounce on the first day of the month. We also have the August employment report and look for the media to turn it into some major market event. It’s not. I do not see an unexpected number.

Twitter, or X as it is now called, has been awash with the typical comments about how September is the weakest month of the year. Look out below. Crash coming. You know the nonsense. Recession. No, inflation. China. The Fed. Spin, spin, spin. September is historically a weak month, especially when it begins in a downtrend. That isn’t the case today. In an uptrend, September actually average +0.20% with basically a 50-50 chance to make money.

I remain in my pullback camp, but it’s not a hill I am dying on nor a position with high conviction. Our models continue to reduce exposure. If the bulls accelerate and we’re wrong, guess what? I will pivot and get on board. And if I am correct, we may see a bifurcated market with some sectors and indices still in good shape. Time is what we need more than anything else.

And because it’s the first day of the month, I am out of time. Weather looks great for the long weekend. I see lots of fun ahead with social gatherings every night, new tires in the morning and a trip or two to the baseball field with my son. I just love hanging with family and friends, especially in the good weather. Of course, I will stop by the office a few mornings so I am here if you need anything. Enjoy the long weekend. Be safe.

On Thursday we bought IWF, TQQQ and more DXHYX. We sold NUGT, GDX, IWO, RYDHX and some DOMO.


Paul Schatz, President, Heritage Capital