Date: May 17, 2019

Tweet Watch Again

Although our models were flashing numerous green lights at the close on Monday, I wasn’t convinced that the final low was in. And nothing this week has made me feel any more comfortable. I am definitely not concerned about meaningful decline in the stock market, just that the 5% pullback doesn’t seem complete. Of course, you could push back and say that I am being too cute with such a relatively small decline and you would be right.

What bothers me is how the market bottomed, but that has been more the case of late during declines, mostly due to the machines doing so much of the trading today. The economic backdrop has been fairly strong with jobs, inflation and today’s 15 year high in consumer sentiment. Housing and auto remain weak, but they don’t seem to be spilling over into anything else yet. Don’t minimize the deal cut with Canada and Mexico today regarding the removal of tariffs.

Sector leadership has been good, but I certainly don’t like how weak semis have been over the past few weeks. The Dow Industrials and NASDAQ 100 are the unusual leadership couple in the major indices, but something will have to give there before month end.

I can’t believe I am going to finish with this, but I am sure many people will be on tweet alert this weekend. Just hard to believe…


Paul Schatz, President, Heritage Capital