Date: November 30, 2018

Whining & Crying Over Interest Rates

After Wednesday’s huge surge, stocks were quietly digesting on Thursday, somewhat as you would expect. With the initial blastoff from the bottom over which typically lifts all ships, especially those that were hit the hardest, it’s now time to start stalking emerging leadership. I am going to reserve judgement at this point since, frankly, I do not have strong conviction other than the transports are one sector acting very well. I want to see what the defensive groups do over the next week or so.

What I find really shocking right now is how the masses and media refuse to talk about long-term interest rates. All we heard all year was about how high rates were going and how bad it was for the economy and markets. Every stock market decline brought out whining and cries about rates.

Meanwhile. if you look below, the yield on the 10-Year Treasury Note now stands at a 10 week low. Long-term rates have been coming down, down and down. But you don’t hear that anywhere because it doesn’t fit the narrative. Wait. Just wait for it. Next week, the media and pundits will be back to worries about the flattening yield curve (short-term rates versus long-term rates) since long-term rates have fallen so much. Commence whining and crying!


Paul Schatz, President, Heritage Capital