It MUST Be a Bear Market
For the past 14 months, I have pounded the table that the bear market ended in October 2022. To be 100% accurate I started this thesis in late September 2022 and it’s all in the blog archives, the good, the bad and the ugly. It’s also in the media section. I have watched so many people turn bearish from June through August 2022 after stocks had already seen the vast majority of their bear market damage. And those folks largely […]
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Date: November 22, 2023
The Three Musketeers Have Fallen – What Will The Bears Say Now?
This is going to be a quick update as I am catching a flight home. Throughout the Q3 pullback I often discussed the three keys for a durable bottom. They were crude oil, rates and the dollar. I continually received push back that there was no way rates and crude could go lower although people always seem to hate the dollar. Well my friends, price never lies. Let’s start with crude oil. I would say $96 t0 $72 is a […]
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Date: November 20, 2023
***Q3 Client Update***
The third quarter of 2023 was another tale of two halves. The markets came off a strong first half of 2023 and kept on going in July. That’s where the fun ended. So many investors who sat on the sidelines for the first 6 months of 2023 couldn’t stand the gain regret and finally plowed into the stock market and other “risk on” assets in July. We know this factually by looking at money flows, sentiment surveys and the options […]
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Date: November 17, 2023
WOWZA
That was some rally on Tuesday! And that was on the heels of a powerful rally off of the lowest levels we saw in October. I have to admit that Tuesday even surprised me a bit. You know my forecast. You know I have been positive on the “risk on” markets, but Tuesday was one of those days where they rip the faces off of the bears. It was an OUCH day. The bulls had plenty of those in 2022, […]
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Date: November 15, 2023
Bears Couldn’t Even Muster 1 Day of Follow Through
So much for Thursday downside reversal mattering. My thinking for a consolidation of mild pullback fell apart an hour into trading on Friday. If you want an example of how strong the bulls are and how powerful the rally is, that epitomizes it. There was a set up for one thing and the exact opposite occurred. The rally was broad-based and the “risk on” sectors led. On Friday after the markets closed rating agency, Moody’s, downgraded the U.S. to negative […]
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Date: November 13, 2023
Another Bullish Thrust But Some Mild Weakness First
After a fierce 8-day rally, stocks reversed hard on Thursday and look to start consolidating some gains or mildly pull back 1-2%. The oft-mentioned 4400 area on the S&P 500 is where I show the blue, horizontal line. Thursday was the second time the market has approached that area and turned back. I sense that three times a charm and stocks will be going through later this month on their way to 4500 and higher into 2024. On Wednesday I […]
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Date: November 10, 2023
Facts About The Bottom and the Breadth Thrust
The stock market bottomed on October 27th. Fact. We didn’t have a spike in the Volatility Index. Fact. Markets rarely bottom on Fridays and rarely when they close near their lows for the day. Facts. It ain’t easy. Since the bottom we saw a very powerful rally with the right indices and sectors leading. The upside was so strong that a number of thrusts hit the market, rendering it with escape velocity, like a rocket that clears the earth’s gravity. […]
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Date: November 8, 2023
It Wasn’t Easy But The Bottom Came In As Expected
Good morning from Chicago, one of my favorite cities to visit where the weather is very mild and pleasant in contrast to my visit to South Carolina last week where I woke up to 34 and cold. Go figure. I am in town for the annual National Association of Active Investment Managers Outlook conference where I have proudly been in leadership for more years than I can remember. It’s a trade association very near and dear to my heart as […]
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Date: November 6, 2023
Powerful 5 Day Run For The Bulls
Sorry for the delay in getting this out. I had an early morning flight from South Carolina back to CT after visiting clients and the WIFI on the plane did not work. I flew Spirit because it was the only nonstop flight. 12 years ago, I swore I would never do that again after they tested charging to use the bathroom. I thought that was beyond absurd. I broke my promise to myself and I will not be doing that […]
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Date: November 3, 2023
***Fed Rate Hike Cycle Over – Early Signs of Recession Growing***
Let’s start this Fed update with the trends. The model for the day should be familiar by now. Look for the stock market to be plus or minus 0.50% until 2pm and then a big move. Had stocks not rallied smartly over the past two days, it would have been one of those rare, all in days where the trend’s accuracy is over 90%. Still, the post-2pm move favors the bulls into the close. The FOMC is not going to […]
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Date: November 1, 2023
