Dotcom Bubble It Ain’t – Anatomy Of a Sale
Lately, I have heard some of the higher profile pundits compare this market to 1999. That is total nonsense and garbage. I am embarrassed for them. Either they are lazy and ignorant. I was there during the lead up to the Dotcom collapse. I vividly remember losing clients in Q4 1999 for not embracing the new paradigm. Client thought I was stupid for owning a bunch of pharma stocks. Next week, I will pull out some charts to compare the […]
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Date: February 9, 2024
But It’s Only 6 Stocks & It Looks Like The Dotcom Bubble
With the plethora of news the markets haven’t really gone anywhere lately. It seems like the world is now obsessed with the supposed narrowness of the rally and everyone has become a top down expert in the area. These kinds of divergences can matter tomorrow or in a year. However, the longer they go on, the worse the punishment will ultimately be. Of course, lack of participation can be fixed by, you guessed it, big participation. Below is a familiar […]
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Date: February 7, 2024
Horrible Market Action BUT BUT BUT Bears Carried Out On a Stretcher
On Friday we saw what I would consider to be a powerful jobs report showing that the economy created more than 350,000 new jobs in January. That was well above the forecast of 185,000. While I am sure someone in pundit got somewhat close, the masses were largely looking for a disappointing report. The “BUT BUT BUT” crowd was out in loud fashion qualifying why this was bunk. And then the political conspiracy crowd was parading around claiming government manipulation. […]
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Date: February 5, 2024
Sell The News, Buy The News, Scratch Your Head On The News
What a week it has been! And I am always happy to be home from the road even though the weather was sunny and pleasant down south. Between the Fed, employment report and earnings from high profile names like Apple, Amazon, Google, Facebook and Microsoft, the markets have had a ton to digest. And with all that news you would think that there would have to have been a big move in the stock market. However, conventional wisdom would be […]
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Date: February 2, 2024
SPECIAL Fed Day Update – Powell Has Cover to Cut
BREAKING NEWS: Fed Leaves Interest Rates Alone – No Change in Balance Sheet Reduction Now you don’t have to wait until 2pm to learn the news that everyone knows already. Powell’s press conference may be a different story. Let’s start with the model for the day which is plus or minus 0.50% for the S&P 500 and then a big move after 2pm. Pre-Powell, that move was higher. Jay hasn’t been as kind to the market as his predecessors. With […]
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Date: January 31, 2024
Huge Week Ahead
Last Friday’s blog, The Ducks Are Quacking – Most Selling I Have Done Since 2022, certainly generated a response. I do enjoy hearing from readers, whether you agree with my thoughts or not. I had to remind people that I am not turning outright negative and we still have a significant amount of “risk on” exposure, especially in our aggressive strategies. However, where we had more than 100% exposure in other strategies or where I saw odd underperformance, I reduced […]
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Date: January 29, 2024
The Ducks Are Quacking – Most Selling I’ve Done Since 2022
There is an old expression in the markets. When the ducks quack, feed them. It means that when investors crave something, give it to them. Those rare times usually fall at market peaks as the masses are not known for good timing. As bad as Merrill Lynch may be at a whole host of business things, I will give them credit for creating all sorts of Dotcom products in 1999 and 2000 to feed the insatiable appetite of investors in […]
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Date: January 26, 2024
BUT BUT BUT For The Bears – Not All Rainbows & Unicorns For The Bulls
I hope everyone survived the cold. I got to visit my favorite bagel place on earth, Ess-a-bagel, twice over the weekend as well as meet and chat with one of my favorite Yankees, Al Leiter. The markets start the week at all-time highs. Let that sink in for a while. While the bears have doubled and tripled down this year with the nonsensical, BUT BUT BUTs, the bulls have gone about their business after the brief pullback. The Dow Industrials, […]
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Date: January 22, 2024
Bulls Refuse To Cede Control
The first three days of this holiday shortened week have been interesting in that the headlines and media have been on the negative side, but stocks are trying to push higher to new highs. The S&P 500 is below and you can see that after Thursday it is once again just one good day from that horizontal blue line which is intra-day new highs. Closing new highs is lower at 4794 which may be seen today. The Dow Industrials and […]
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Date: January 19, 2024
Fearless Forecast 2024 Part II – Bonds, Gold, Oil, Bitcoin, Economy, Fed & Election
I am going to continue with my 2024 Fearless Forecast in piecemeal fashion and then post one very long blog for posterity. Fixed Income I don’t think 2024 will be a big year for bonds in either direction. Let’s start right there. Overall, I think they are in a trading range bound by 2023 high and low. If I was forced to offer a scenario for the year, I would say that bonds are weaker earlier in the year and […]
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Date: January 18, 2024
