The Ducks Are Quacking – Most Selling I’ve Done Since 2022
There is an old expression in the markets. When the ducks quack, feed them. It means that when investors crave something, give it to them. Those rare times usually fall at market peaks as the masses are not known for good timing. As bad as Merrill Lynch may be at a whole host of business things, I will give them credit for creating all sorts of Dotcom products in 1999 and 2000 to feed the insatiable appetite of investors in […]
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Date: January 26, 2024
BUT BUT BUT For The Bears – Not All Rainbows & Unicorns For The Bulls
I hope everyone survived the cold. I got to visit my favorite bagel place on earth, Ess-a-bagel, twice over the weekend as well as meet and chat with one of my favorite Yankees, Al Leiter. The markets start the week at all-time highs. Let that sink in for a while. While the bears have doubled and tripled down this year with the nonsensical, BUT BUT BUTs, the bulls have gone about their business after the brief pullback. The Dow Industrials, […]
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Date: January 22, 2024
Bulls Refuse To Cede Control
The first three days of this holiday shortened week have been interesting in that the headlines and media have been on the negative side, but stocks are trying to push higher to new highs. The S&P 500 is below and you can see that after Thursday it is once again just one good day from that horizontal blue line which is intra-day new highs. Closing new highs is lower at 4794 which may be seen today. The Dow Industrials and […]
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Date: January 19, 2024
Fearless Forecast 2024 Part II – Bonds, Gold, Oil, Bitcoin, Economy, Fed & Election
I am going to continue with my 2024 Fearless Forecast in piecemeal fashion and then post one very long blog for posterity. Fixed Income I don’t think 2024 will be a big year for bonds in either direction. Let’s start right there. Overall, I think they are in a trading range bound by 2023 high and low. If I was forced to offer a scenario for the year, I would say that bonds are weaker earlier in the year and […]
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Date: January 18, 2024
For All The Negative Fanfare, Stocks Remain a Whisker From ATHs
Let’s take a step back and get away from the media’s hyperbole and hysteria regarding the two inflation reports last week. Essentially consumer prices were a little hotter and producer prices were a little cooler. That’s really it in a nutshell. The market was pricing in up to 7 rates cuts in 2024 which I have viewed as insanely absurd. As I mentioned on FOX61 the other day, if the Fed has to cut anywhere near 7 times, we will […]
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Date: January 14, 2024
Fearless Forecast 2024 – Stock Market To Tack On Another 11-15%
I had hoped to communicate my full 2024 Fearless Forecast with a grading of 2023 in one email. That’s not happening. Too much info. So I am sharing the largest portion first, my forecast for the stock market. 12 months ago, I had a lot to say. However, most people could say that about me on any given day. As 2023 began, the masses were universally aligned in the bear camp, the doomsday camp and even the Armageddon camp. Almost […]
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Date: January 10, 2024
Strong Q4 > Weakness in January, But How Much?
Thank you to those who attended our quarterly webinar last night. We covered a lot and I appreciate your time. The archive will be available today and emailed to all those who signed up. My 2024 Fearless Forecast turned out to be a whole lot longer than I anticipated. I know. I know. You’re really shocked. So, I decided to release the equity market portion first and then the rest. If all goes according to plan, you can expect that […]
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Date: January 8, 2024
Santa Did Not Call But Be Careful With Bears Coming to Broad & Wall – Bumpy is The Theme
Greetings from Beantown, one of my favorite cities. I have been traveling for work since 1989 with thousands of trips I guess and I have never forgotten my clothes. That is, until last yesterday. My plan was to head to Vermont from Boston and I have everything I need in Vermont. So as I am scrambling to get on the road with my UCONN napsack, I left the articles of clothing I needed behind. I did manage to bring a […]
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Date: January 5, 2024
2024 Begins on Defense – Buy Weakness – Enough Said
Welcome to 2024! I hope you had a great long weekend. Mine was full of football, family, friends along with some yard work, the UCONN game and some office time. For the bourbon aficionados out there, I won an auction of various labels from the Buffalo Trace family that included three bottles of Wellers. Still no Pappy Van Winkle, but I won’t give up hope. For me this is traditionally the busiest week of the year inside the busiest month […]
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Date: January 2, 2024
Final Day of 2023 Shaping Up To Be Down – Small Caps Have Been a Blockbuster
I have said this all year, but what a fun year it has been. Not only did the markets follow my script fairly well, but it was a blockbuster year for the bulls and investors. I don’t think 2024 will be a mirror image. I am sad to see the calendar turn, but random dates do not impact markets. I continue to formulate my 2024 Fearless Forecast and I look forward to sharing that with you next week. With markets […]
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Date: December 29, 2023
