I Was Wrong
My head has been spinning this week. I definitely did not see the Fed discussing rate cuts in 2024. Was that the “pivot” the world has been hoping for all year? I don’t know. And frankly, I don’t care. We came into the Fed meeting with the spirit of our portfolios intact since early November. A few changes at the margin here and there. I thought there could be a 1-2% pullback between Thanksgiving and today as it is a […]
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Date: December 15, 2023
Fed Rate Cut Next Move – Bears Remain Embarrassingly Wrong
Let’s start with the model for the day. The S&P 500 is most likely to be plus or minus 0.50% until 2pm and then rally. However, because the stock market has rallied sharply into Fed day and closed so strongly on Tuesday, the post-2pm strength has been muted away to a coin flip. Post-Fed Day, stocks are supposed to pause or pull back very mildly before another assault higher. So, as we have done all year, continue to buy weakness. […]
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Date: December 13, 2023
“Paul The Bear” – Doesn’t Really Ring
It was a good weekend. Skiing was nice, soft and springlike on Saturday. On Sunday, America’s Team kept rolling and beat the Eagles and the UCONN women looked a little bit better in beating UNC. I also ate like this was my last weekend in earth and my pants are a wee bit tighter this morning. The big employment report came out on Friday and market reaction was super muted. I guess the bulls won the day but volatility has […]
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Date: December 11, 2023
Muted Reaction From Employment Report – Value & Small Caps Quietly Leading
The monthly jobs report hit this morning and the economy created 199,000 new jobs, 9,000 more than expected. The unemployment rate dropped to 3.7% from 3.9% which is a surprise. I am struck by how muted market response has become to what was once considered the most important economic release of the month. Bond yields climbed and pre-market trading show some mild weakness for stocks, but neither was out of the ordinary for a normal day, let alone with this […]
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Date: December 8, 2023
A Look at Two Key Sectors as Markets Quiet Down
Markets have really quieted down as we get into the meat of December. That’s a plus for the bulls as the bears finally have some things on their side of the ledger to cling to. After such an amazingly powerful rally, the longer the bulls can hold off any meaningful pullback in stocks, the more likely the market will resolve itself higher sooner than later. As I have mentioned, we have a seasonal headwind for another week or two and […]
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Date: December 6, 2023
But Paul…
For most of the year, all we heard about was that 7 or 8 stocks were the only ones going up while 493 languished. That’s not exactly true, but you get the picture. Additionally, I consistently pushed back that if you know the market was being dominated by a handful of stocks, no one was preventing you from owning some. Bears didn’t like that argument. In the upper chart below you will see the S&P 500. The lower chart in […]
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Date: December 4, 2023
Bulls Surprising Even Me
The markets had a nice mark up into month-end on Thursday. It was one of those “funny” last 30 minutes when everything suddenly jumped higher as if someone was manipulating it. Surely, that would never happen. We have the final month of the year beginning today and it is a positive seasonal day. A week ago, I thought the S&P 500 would stop before it hit new highs for 2023, but today, I guess that’s where it’s headed which is […]
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Date: December 1, 2023
Stocks Look Full As Gold Breaks Out & Bears Scream About Small Caps
Post-Thankgiving, I slightly tempered my bullish exuberance over the very short-term, meaning the next few weeks. It wasn’t enough to take any meaningful action as the downside looked limited and I do not have high conviction. But the market looks a bit tired and full from its big November meal. And for those who pay attention to the trades I post at the end of each blog, we have done very little across our 18 strategies over the past few […]
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Date: November 29, 2023
Some Weakness Possible – Volatility At New Lows
I hope you had a terrific Thanksgiving holiday and long weekend if you were able to take Friday off. We hosted as usual, but my mom came over, commandeered the kitchen and did most of the cooking to give my wife a little break. Of course, I did my best to open the wine and watch football. After all, America’s Team was playing on America’s holiday. And winning in grand fashion I might add. Yes, the Dallas Cowboys are great […]
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Date: November 27, 2023
It MUST Be a Bear Market
For the past 14 months, I have pounded the table that the bear market ended in October 2022. To be 100% accurate I started this thesis in late September 2022 and it’s all in the blog archives, the good, the bad and the ugly. It’s also in the media section. I have watched so many people turn bearish from June through August 2022 after stocks had already seen the vast majority of their bear market damage. And those folks largely […]
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Date: November 22, 2023
