Bulls’ Stampede Continues – “BUT BUT BUT”
Stocks continue to creep higher as I have been discussing and as the various studies have suggested. I went back to see when I started mentioning strong seasonal tailwinds. It was at the end of October, coincidentally as the stock market was hammering in a major bottom. Since then with the exception of two weeks in December with seasonal headwinds, there has been study after study all suggesting higher and higher prices into year-end. This has been yet more evidence […]
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Date: December 27, 2023
Panic Selling At All-Time Highs – What It Means
On Wednesday I wrote about runaway momentum and how it crushes everything in its way until it doesn’t. That very day and without notice, stocks saw a nasty downside reversal in matter of minutes that turned to hours. Some in the media made a federal case about it. I even heard one interviewer ask a guest to comment on the importance of the last 20 MINUTES. Come on. 20 minutes? Are we next going to discuss minute to minute trading? […]
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Date: December 22, 2023
Runaway Momentum Crushing Everything In Its Way
It is pretty amazing what momentum can do in the markets. Once that ball gets rolling strongly in one direction it can powerfully build and build and then crush everything in its way, kind of like an avalanche which I know a little about. Let’s take a quick look. Below is the S&P 500. From the October bottom you can count only a few red days where the index closed below where it opened. Now, go see how many times […]
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Date: December 20, 2023
Watching Small Stocks For Another Huge Opportunity As Dow Hits An ALL-TIME HIGH
We have an incredibly wet and windy start to the week in the northeast. Lots of power outages, school delays and trees down. It’s 60 with inches of rain and rumors of hurricane force wind gusts. I guess a white Christmas is a pipe dream. The bulls don’t seem to mind. We have the Dow Industrials at an all-time high. The S&P 500 is just a good one day rally away. The NASDAQ 100 could get there today. And while […]
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Date: December 18, 2023
I Was Wrong
My head has been spinning this week. I definitely did not see the Fed discussing rate cuts in 2024. Was that the “pivot” the world has been hoping for all year? I don’t know. And frankly, I don’t care. We came into the Fed meeting with the spirit of our portfolios intact since early November. A few changes at the margin here and there. I thought there could be a 1-2% pullback between Thanksgiving and today as it is a […]
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Date: December 15, 2023
Fed Rate Cut Next Move – Bears Remain Embarrassingly Wrong
Let’s start with the model for the day. The S&P 500 is most likely to be plus or minus 0.50% until 2pm and then rally. However, because the stock market has rallied sharply into Fed day and closed so strongly on Tuesday, the post-2pm strength has been muted away to a coin flip. Post-Fed Day, stocks are supposed to pause or pull back very mildly before another assault higher. So, as we have done all year, continue to buy weakness. […]
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Date: December 13, 2023
“Paul The Bear” – Doesn’t Really Ring
It was a good weekend. Skiing was nice, soft and springlike on Saturday. On Sunday, America’s Team kept rolling and beat the Eagles and the UCONN women looked a little bit better in beating UNC. I also ate like this was my last weekend in earth and my pants are a wee bit tighter this morning. The big employment report came out on Friday and market reaction was super muted. I guess the bulls won the day but volatility has […]
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Date: December 11, 2023
Muted Reaction From Employment Report – Value & Small Caps Quietly Leading
The monthly jobs report hit this morning and the economy created 199,000 new jobs, 9,000 more than expected. The unemployment rate dropped to 3.7% from 3.9% which is a surprise. I am struck by how muted market response has become to what was once considered the most important economic release of the month. Bond yields climbed and pre-market trading show some mild weakness for stocks, but neither was out of the ordinary for a normal day, let alone with this […]
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Date: December 8, 2023
A Look at Two Key Sectors as Markets Quiet Down
Markets have really quieted down as we get into the meat of December. That’s a plus for the bulls as the bears finally have some things on their side of the ledger to cling to. After such an amazingly powerful rally, the longer the bulls can hold off any meaningful pullback in stocks, the more likely the market will resolve itself higher sooner than later. As I have mentioned, we have a seasonal headwind for another week or two and […]
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Date: December 6, 2023
But Paul…
For most of the year, all we heard about was that 7 or 8 stocks were the only ones going up while 493 languished. That’s not exactly true, but you get the picture. Additionally, I consistently pushed back that if you know the market was being dominated by a handful of stocks, no one was preventing you from owning some. Bears didn’t like that argument. In the upper chart below you will see the S&P 500. The lower chart in […]
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Date: December 4, 2023
