Something Breaking in The Markets – Still in The Zone & Getting Closer
Tuesday was not a pretty day in the markets, but it was really just more of the same. Bonds collapsed which means yields rose. Stocks fell. The dollar rallied. Rinse and repeat since mid-July. I can’t say it has been fun without many intervening rallies, but it also has not been disastrous, at least not yet. Stocks and risk assets remain under pressure to state the obvious. Both time and price are and have been in my zone for a […]
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Date: October 4, 2023
New Week, Month & Quarter – Bulls Have The Edge to Start
Friday ended the week, month and quarter. And it was definitely a tale of two halves, much like Q1 with early strength and later weakness. And you already know that both time and have price have opened the window for a stock market bottom. If all goes according to plan, the low we see should create an opportunity for a rally into January and it could be significant. And by the way, for all those who were skeptical about my […]
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Date: October 2, 2023
Is “A” Bottom or “THE” Bottom? The Window is Open
Monday was the first time in a month where some signs popped up of at least a short-term rally beginning. The bears waited all of one day to squash that notion as Tuesday was another win for the bears. Wednesday looked even better than Monday in terms of the market groping for a little low. We shall see what happens today. The most beaten down, ugliest indices, small and mid caps, have been hanging in this week. Here is the […]
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Date: September 28, 2023
Window For a Bottom Opens – VIX Needs to Spike
After being off for Yom Kippur yesterday, it feels like a Monday today. Markets behaved poorly to end last week, but hung in okay on Monday against another spike in long-term interest rates. Stocks are under pressure in the pre-market today. They need to close in the upper half of their range today to indicate at least a very short-term rally has begun. As I discussed last week, the window for a stock market low is now open as the […]
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Date: September 26, 2023
Pullback Accelerates
First, lets’ start off with the Fed model which was woefully wrong on Wednesday, calling for a post-2pm rally. When markets don’t do what they’re supposed to do, they often accelerate in the opposite direction which is what we saw on Thursday. The two-day decline was real, lopping 2-4% off of the major stock market indices. Below is the S&P 500. At the close it met my minimum downside target of breaching the August low. You can see the two […]
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Date: September 22, 2023
Fed Stands Pat – Stocks Should Rally
It’s Fed day and an uneventful one at that. Interest rates will not be going up today. That’s what everyone expects and what we will hear at 2pm. Before that the model says plus or minus 0.50% in the stock market and then the usual bigger moves after the Fed news breaks. With the recent weakness, the model says the bulls have the upper hand today. I also do not think the Fed will say anything about a pause for […]
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Date: September 20, 2023
The Weakest Week of the Weakest Month Already in Pullback Mode
And so begins the weakest week of the weakest month of the year. In fact, for all of September’s ominous tones, you can attribute more than 100% of the negativity to this week. (hat tip to my friend Rob Hanna of Quantifiable Edges) Now, before you start thinking about crashes and collapses, let’s remember that we are talking about an average, not a certainty. And last Friday was down decently against the backdrop of the auto strike and one of […]
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Date: September 18, 2023
Risk Increasing – Important Time to Pay Attention
The stock market had a nice rally on Thursday. And price is getting closer to the upper line in the sand, 4555 or so where my thesis for another pullback would be more difficult. So far, the markets have done nothing wrong to negate further upside, but risk should begin to increase today. The next few weeks have a very negative seasonal headwind and there is major labor strike in the country. Interestingly, mega cap tech is not the sexy […]
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Date: September 15, 2023
CPI & Dollar Warm
Just a quick note today. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in a bit hotter than forecast, but that’s what the data were pointing at. I have written that inflation was likely finding a floor in the mid 3% area and that some increase was coming. But remember, the economy and markets are in very different places than they were two plus years ago when the Fed was well behind the curve. Now, Powell & company seem to have gone […]
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Date: September 13, 2023
Bulls Not Convincing, Yet
9-11 is always a difficult day. Everyone seems to know someone who perished in that unspeakable, cowardly terrorist attack. I lost a childhood friend and a fraternity brother. Many or most years, I repeat my story that day. I just don’t have the mental energy today. I simply hope that no one ever forgets what happened. Stocks are in the midst of what I think will end up being a feeble bounce. Sure, I could be grossly wrong and the […]
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Date: September 11, 2023
