Stock Market in a Vulnerable Position
The stock market is now in a vulnerable position. Vulnerable doesn’t mean crash or bear market or even a decline. It just means that the path of least resistance is lower, not today or any day, just in general. The S&P 500 as seen below is now caught between last week’s high and the August lows. For the vulnerable regime to pass, we want to see either price level exceeded on a daily closing basis. I will speculate and say […]
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Date: September 8, 2023
Challenges of Residential Real Estate
Greetings from 36,000 feet as I make a quick trip to Florida to visit clients and a few new prospective clients. As I sit here my thinking on the markets is not any different from what I have been writing about so I decided to pivot to a totally different topic, interest rates. I am always interested in your feedback, positive or negative, so feel free to share. The worst kept secret of all-time is that interest rates have soared […]
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Date: September 6, 2023
The Spookiness of September Arrives
I keep chatting with folks who bemoan the end of summer because kids are back to school or they work in education. I had news for them. Summer ain’t over. Just like Punxsutawney Phil the groundhog, I see another 6 weeks of summer or pretty close. While ski season is less than 100 days away, I have no plans on mentally preparing just yet. August ended with a little whimper. Stocks sold off into the close while still in a […]
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Date: September 1, 2023
Nice Bounce But Not Convincing
Long-term bond yields have come down over the past two weeks. Ya know what that leads to in this climate? Stocks have bounced nicely over the past week although I sense that yesterday was the day of recognition, the day when people realized there has been a little rally. Usually, we see some weakness a day or two later. At this point the S&P 500 has regained a little more than half of what it lost. If my thesis regarding […]
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Date: August 30, 2023
BUT BUT BUT Nvidia Had a Blowout Quarter
When I got back from the Midwest on Wednesday night my middle son immediately wanted to discuss Nvdia’s absolute blowout earnings report. Before you start thinking that he’s another example of insanely bullish sentiment on the stock and AI in general, he has been all over AI and the semis for a number of years. He just doesn’t understand the ebb of flow of stock price movement. I told him that given the strong run up in the stock and […]
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Date: August 28, 2023
It’s P Day
A year ago at this time, Fed Chair Jay Powell gave a very short and direct speech at Jackson Hole. Most people were surprised at how short his comments were, but no one misunderstood his powerful message which he followed through on ever since. I do not expect Powell’s speech to be as short as 2022 nor as direct and sharp. I expect him to continue to be mildly hawkish and report that the Fed’s job is almost but not […]
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Date: August 25, 2023
Reversals Abound – All Eyes on Nvidia
Friday’s reversal from early losses looks interesting on a chart for sure as you can see below in the S&P 500, but Tuesday also showed a less impressive reversal. This time it was to the downside. While I expected more from the bulls after Friday, perhaps I am being a bit too impatient. We will have to see. In what has become the most anticipated earnings report in a long time, Nvidia reports after the close today. The chart is […]
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Date: August 23, 2023
State of the Pullback – Where It Ends, When and What to Buy
A new video has been posted! State of the Pullback – Where It Ends, When and What to Buy On Friday we sold RSYYX and levered S&P 500.
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Date: August 20, 2023
5% Pullback Hit – Low at Hand
I remember when COVID hit and NYC was the epicenter. The hysteria around metro living was pervasive and most predicted mass exoduses from the major cities for years and years to come. After all, who in their right mind would ever get into an elevator with other people? Who would ride subways and busses packed with others? Well, as I walked across town, the city was more crowded than ever, both in vehicles and walking. I didn’t see a single […]
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Date: August 18, 2023
OUCH Day on Tuesday
Tuesday was an “OUCH” day. The stock market was set up for a bounce and perhaps a multi-day bounce as I wrote on Monday. The bears pulled the rug out and it was a day that hurt the bulls. As you can see at the end of this post we ended up selling a good number of positions as the set ups failed and I was wrong. I mentioned before, but it’s important enough to reiterate. A few weeks ago […]
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Date: August 16, 2023
