Stocks Pull Back on Schedule
The media is all over the stock market decline that has been going on for all of two days. Two days after a super nice rally off of the March lows. And the decline began almost perfectly on schedule as the leading NASDAQ 100 exceeded the key high from last August and the S&P 500 breached its 2023 high. See the charts below. Many or most times when prices revisit a previous peak or trough, they back off before going […]
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Date: May 24, 2023
Still Talking Debt Ceiling But PGA Was The Story
With an upward bias, markets continue to be quiet as the debt ceiling gets closer and closer to being hit. The NASDAQ 100 remains the leading index followed by the S&P 500. The Dow Industrials are in no man’s land with the S&P 400 and Russell 2000 being the caboose. Nothing has changed. The market is being led by a handful of stocks that are being powered by the AI craze. Sooner or later there will be a swift pullback […]
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Date: May 22, 2023
Will Pundits Finally Turn Bullish?
I am looking forward to seeing many of you tonight at the next Heritage Capital virtual event as we learn a delicious new dessert and bake it on our kitchens. Of course with Friday being here, adult libations are welcome and encouraged. We are working on the in person client event for late summer. Stand by. Markets are getting much more interesting. I have been pretty much pounding the table positive since September. It hasn’t always been easy, but that […]
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Date: May 19, 2023
Lots of Creeping Going On
Markets sniffed a little weakness into the close on Tuesday. That’s about all I can say. It was another dull, have/have not, kind of day. The NASDAQ 100 has crept higher. The S&P 500 has crept sideways. The S&P 400 and Russell 2000 have crept lower. Tech sectors are doing well. Banks are groping for a bottom. Discretionary is percolating for a move higher. Most other sectors and a tad weak. Everything is incremental. It seems like most people are […]
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Date: May 17, 2023
Standoff at The O.K. Corral
Markets remain quiet. Early weakness seems to be find buyers. Early strength is not building on itself. We have a standoff at O.K. Corral. Last week I shared the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100. The latter being the market leader with the former getting to the top end of its range. To be fair and balanced, below is the laggard which is the Russell 2000 Index of small caps. It looks nothing like the leading indices. The 1700 area has […]
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Date: May 15, 2023
The Masses Freaking Out Over the “Narrow” Market
It’s always good to be back home. While I really like the Valley of the Sun and the constant sunshine without humidity, there’s nothing quite like spring in New England. The annual Uncommon Knowledge conference of my trade association was once again an amazing and rewarding experience. The agenda was chock full of incredible speakers and I learned so much that I can’t wait to implement. The networking with fellow advisors was its usual enormous benefit along with meeting many […]
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Date: May 12, 2023
Pause to Refresh But Hanging In as Media Discovers Russell Problem
Having survived the Fed, Apple and the jobs report, the markets scored a big win for the bulls on Friday. All of the concerns I had were almost all gone based on Friday’s action, but they do remain in place. Friday was one of those “rising tides lifts all ships” kind of day. The despair from the Fed was gone because Apple had good earnings and the February and March strong jobs reports were revised lower, something I started to […]
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Date: May 9, 2023
***Q1 Client Update***
What a difference the turning of the calendar makes. Stocks and bonds both fell moderately in December to end the single worst year in diversified investing of the modern era. Coming into 2023, my thesis was that the bear market in stocks and bonds had ended in October 2022 and that 2023 was going to be the front-loaded year of the bull. It only took the bulls a few days to get their legs underneath before they exerted their pressure […]
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Date: May 8, 2023
Apple & Jobs to The Rescue
The stock market has now survived the Fed meeting, Apple’s earnings and the April jobs report. I think there is one other item, but I can’t recall. The stock market was lower into and after the Fed as Jay Powell remained hawkish, but to a lesser degree. After Thursday’s close, Apple beats expectations and the bump carried over to the pre-market this morning. While the economy created more jobs than expected in April which feeds fuel to the Fed’s fire, […]
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Date: May 5, 2023
The Fed is Clueless If They Raise Rates Again Today
Here we go. Another one of those “most important Fed meetings ever” nonsense from the media. “SPECIAL Coverage”. Oh boy. I couldn’t sleep with all that anticipation. Those of you who know me know my usual sarcasm. Before I continue, let me spell out the market model for today. Stocks trade between plus and minus 0.50% until 2pm and then a bigger move happens. That’s usually to the upside, but Chair Jay Powell’s tenure has changed that a bit. With […]
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Date: May 3, 2023
