Pullback Not Over But Multi-Day Bounce Setting Up
Good Monday morning everyone. Mine began by being 5 minutes early. So, I decided to move a bag of fertilizer from the front of the garage to the back. I had to squeeze by my car which didn’t look to difficult. But it is a Monday morning. On the way to the back I smashed my left hand into my side view mirror of my car. Seeing stars quickly ensued. Then the swelling, throbbing and transition to black and blue. […]
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Date: August 14, 2023
Hard to Find Places to Hide
Stocks are through with most of earnings season and you know what? The major stock market indices haven’t gone anywhere and I don’t not believe they are set up to explode higher just yet. My tempered enthusiasm remains. Besides the big picture, short-term challenges, I am really having trouble finding things I want to own, regardless of my market take. I thought low volatility ETFs like SPLV would get some love along with utilities and staples, but the plunge in […]
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Date: August 11, 2023
Bull Market Intact. Q3 Pullback Intact. Bounce Setting Up.
Sorry for the late post. I just returned from Scotland yesterday and I am playing catch up, and one of my bags decided it wanted some time in London before returning to the States. It was a small, but motley crew and an epic trip to the Highlands. Only 1507 pictures taken. As you know, I have greatly tempered my enthusiasm for stocks over the past week or so. The bull market remains intact. Even this big leg […]
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Date: August 9, 2023
Apple, Amazon and Employment Report Lead to a Big Friday
As I wrote about the other day, markets were not happy that second rate rating firm, Fitch, using an odd combination of stale and subjective data downgraded the debt of the U.S. Stocks and bonds were hit hard, each losing more than 1%. As I tweeted on Thursday morning, more selling should be expected before the first short-term low is in. My tune remains the same. The bull market is alive and reasonably well. This pullback was one I started […]
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Date: August 4, 2023
U.S. Downgraded Again as Seasonal Trends for August Are Not Bullish
August is here and the month doesn’t have an upward seasonal bias. Overall, it is one of the more challenging months of the year, coming in at 0% on average, but weaker lately. The first day of August is also the single worst first day of the month in the calendar. However (isn’t there always?), because of how well July closed, the first week of August is a seasonally strong period. In other words, buy weakness to begin the month […]
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Date: August 2, 2023
Thunderstorms Brewing
It cannot be July 31st. No way. Can we get summer to slow down a bit? I am sure those in the sweltering and parched areas of the country don’t want to see that, but I do, especially after we finally got a glorious Sunday with golden sunshine, low humidity and temps in the low 80s. It was so nice that after we grilled and ate outside last night, I built a fairly substantial bonfire that began slowly with some […]
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Date: July 31, 2023
Bears See Nasty Reversal & Soaring Rates
The Fed did exactly what everyone knew they would and for the first time in many meetings, Jay Powell’s press conference was boring and plain vanilla. Stocks did very little which is what the model suggested after the rally muted much of the usual edge. Thursday brought lots of fireworks with stocks ripping higher at the open, only to completely fade by the close. If you asked me at 10am what the odds were of losing that entire gain in […]
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Date: July 28, 2023
Fed to Hike 1/4% – Equilibrium Remains – Bears Still Embarrassingly Wrong
Jay Powell and his friends on the FOMC are going to hike interest rates by 1/4% today at 2pm. That is all but certain. Between now and then, the model of the day calls for plus or minus 0.50% in the S&P 500 and then a bigger move after 2pm. Given the strength into the meeting and the fact that the stock market sits at a fresh 52-week high, the odds and edge are somewhat muted and not worth the […]
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Date: July 26, 2023
Can Stocks Rally With the Fed Selling Billions?
Over the weekend I was chatting with an industry colleague who is usually bearish. He’s a glass quarter full kinda guy, but super, super bright and always has high conviction. At the beginning of the year we had this fierce debate about how 2023 would treat the stock market. You already know how bullish I was. His position was that there was no way stocks could rally simply because the Fed was selling assets from its balance sheet to the […]
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Date: July 24, 2023
Tesla & Netflix Offering Clues as I Start to Temper Exuberant Enthusiasm
The markets gave us an interesting clue to where the rally stands on Thursday. Both Tesla and Netflix reported earnings that were generally fine. There were a few tiny pieces of negativity, but nothing really big. Both stocks were hit hard as was the NASDAQ 100. You can see Tesla and Netflix below, which we own in our Unloved Gems strategy. Look all the way to the far right of the chart to see the decline. Both stocks have had […]
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Date: July 21, 2023
