THE Bottom Or Just A Trading Low?
I am surprised at how many questions I received regarding whether the current stock market pullback was the 10%+ correction I called for this year. I need to do a better job articulating my thoughts here. The short answer is I don’t think so, but as we know, the markets don’t care what I think or want. My thesis has always been for an initial decline in Q1 and then a rally which could be to new highs again before […]
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Date: February 26, 2025
OUCH! That Hurt
Friday was an ugly day for the bulls and one that caught me a little off guard, just two days removed from a fresh high in the S&P 500. However, in the grand scheme of things, Friday was very much in line with how I have been thinking this year. Wednesday’s new high wasn’t confirmed by much else. It was more of an island of strength that got washed over sooner than later. It was a typical “risk off” day […]
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Date: February 24, 2025
No Mo’ Momo
My title for 2025 has been, The Year Momentum Died. I argued that buying and selling strength was going to be the most rewarding strategy. Well friends, that epitomizes what we are and have been seeing. Wednesday saw the S&P 500 finally breakout to the upside and get people a little more excited. I was hoping for a 1-2% spurt to perhaps do some selling and risk reduction. But the bulls couldn’t muster any momentum. They just kinda died. And […]
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Date: February 21, 2025
Bulls Fail At New Highs (For Now) – NASDAQ 100 Leading, Russell Still Lagging
As you know I have been waiting, patiently and not so patiently, for the stock market to print fresh, all-time highs. I thought we could see a quick 1-2% spurt higher that would be more of a selling opportunity than a momentum train higher. So what happened when the S&P 500 as shown below got to the old highs? It drifted quietly back to where it began the day. I would like to see the index close above 6130 this […]
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Date: February 18, 2025
Are All-Time Highs Really Here?!?!
It didn’t feel easy, but the S&P 500 got back to the old highs on Thursday and within a whisker of closing at fresh, all-time highs. It looks like there should be more upside coming with a possible 1-2% spurt higher. Interestingly, the market has ignored the constant barrage of tariffs and DeepSeek and DOGE. Remember what I write. It’s not what the news is, but how markets react. Markets will do what they want, especially when the news doesn’t […]
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Date: February 14, 2025
Inflation Hotter As Expected
We learned this morning that January inflation data was hotter than expected. I know my readers are not surprised because that is my theme for early 2025. Inflation should moderate during the second half of the year. And it was hot enough that I am sure pundits will talk about a Fed rate hike instead of cut. I think that’s unfounded and unwise. Let’s look, yet again, at the S&P 500 below. Not much going on this week. It remains […]
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Date: February 12, 2025
Bears Have The Ball
Friday’s action in the stock market saw the bears make a stand at precisely the moment they had to before the S&P 500 headed to new highs. Funny how that sometimes works. You can see on the far right side of the chart below how the bears have rejected the bulls with red at 6130, 6120 and now at 6100. That is three times with a lower level each time, meaning the bears are getting more aggressive. The behavior by […]
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Date: February 10, 2025
Indices Pressing Towards New Highs – Still Not A Buying Opportunity
Two straight weeks of blue Mondays followed by market bounces. The S&P 500 is just a good day away from new highs although my thinking has not changed that it would be more of selling opportunity that a buying of momentum one. That will change, but not before we see more meaningful downside to cleanse the greed and euphoria. I guess the S&P 500 could run a few percent in new highs, but I still think it needs damage to […]
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Date: February 7, 2025
Tariffs Creating Investor Anxiety
Tariffs on. Tariffs off. I sense this to be a theme going forward. The longer this lasts and the more times it happens, the more the markets will price in the outcome, whatever that may be. You already know my feelings about tariffs and protectionism. I won’t rehash that everyday. In my 2025 Fearless Forecast I wrote that one of my themes was that 2025 will fell worse than it actually is. Look at the S&P 500 below. It’s really […]
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Date: February 5, 2025
DeepSeek Last Monday – Tariffs Today
Tariffs will dominate the news this week as President Trump followed through on his threats against China, Canada and Mexico. I have long been against tariffs as an economic tool and I remain that way. No country can tariff its way to prosperity. No one wins a trade war. There are only losers. Yes. I fully understand that other countries do not play by the rules. But I am a free trader. I seek trade deals not protectionism. For the […]
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Date: February 3, 2025
