Slow Grind Higher, Bonds Trying, Crude Not So Much
Happy Friday! No matter how many times people argue with me, I am not changing my position. The election has almost no bearing on the markets nor economy until at least Halloween, if at all until the big day. Sorry not sorry. Data bear that out. Many of you know that we run a purely quantitative election model based on market performance over three time periods as well as recent economic data. The model has correctly predicted every election since […]
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Date: October 18, 2024
Canary In The Coal Mine – What’s Up With Semis?
The stock market encountered its first real shot across the bow on Tuesday when international semiconductor stock, ASML, surprised with a revenue warning during trading hours. No one needs any training in finance to figure out where the announcement occurred on the chart below. The action was swift and punishing. The question is whether this is idiosyncratic or industry wide. As many of you know except for a brief period starting with the mini-crash on August 5th, we have shied […]
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Date: October 16, 2024
Small & Mid Cap Stocks Leading
On Friday the “other” stocks rallied and in a big way. Last week I wrote about the strong opportunity in mid and small caps. Both indices were large and in charge on Friday. That continues the quiet trend I have written about since the end of Q2. Let’s take a look at the NASDAQ 100 relative to the Russell 2000 and then the S&P 400. The chart below is one divided by the other. When the line is going up, […]
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Date: October 14, 2024
Market Still Poised To Move Higher
Another earnings season starts today as JP Morgan and Wells Fargo are out of the gate first. We have owned the former in our Unloved Gems strategy since inception in 2018 and I don’t think we’ve ever owned the latter. As I wrote the other day, stocks still seem poised to move higher. Both inflation gauges released this week were cool and that should help a breakout to the upside. I think small and mid caps stock look the most […]
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Date: October 11, 2024
Price Poised For Upside – Not All Is Strong
My good friend, Helene Meisler, who is a great read on Twitter noticed last week that the stock market has had a pattern of up, down, up, down for many days. Each day she wrote about it, I thought she was jinxing it and it would end. I think it’s now 11 straight days of this pattern and I am sure it will end today. Why? Because I decided to mention it. Week two of October has historically been down […]
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Date: October 9, 2024
Does The Government Manipulate Economic Data?
The conspiracy theorists are out in full force. On Friday the government announced that the economy created 254,000 new jobs, far outpacing the 150,000 that was expected. Since it was the last employment report until the election, plenty of folks are crying foul and manipulation. However, just a few short months ago, we learned that the government revised the prior year lower by almost 1,000,000 jobs which had been overstated. Here’s my take. I do not believe the government screws […]
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Date: October 7, 2024
Q4 Setting Up For The Bulls – Buy Weakness
On Monday I published some short-term seasonal stats about October week by week. So far, this seasonally strong week isn’t panning out. I want to pivot to Q4 and why I believe weakness should be bought. Here is an interesting study. When the S&P 500 is up 10-20% through September 30th, October and the fourth quarter median returns look like this. October +1.6% which runs counter to what I published on Monday about Octobers in general. If this week is […]
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Date: October 2, 2024
Here Comes Big Bad October
Today is the last day of the month and quarter. I know my readers are astute enough to know that we may see some “curious” action, especially late in the day. Portfolio games may be abound and they tend to get unwound over the next day or two. I know I say this all the time, but I can’t believe how fast the first three quarters flew by. My grandmother was among the smartest people I ever knew. When I […]
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Date: September 30, 2024
Weakest Week Of The Year? Phooey!
For what has been the weakest week of the year, there has been a certain lack of teeth and downside over the first four days without much looking lower today. As I always say, seasonal trends, no matter how powerful, are just headwinds and tailwinds. You can’t react to them in a vacuum. On the flip side, the markets haven’t really accelerated higher either. The S&P 500 looks like it’s just drifting higher into month and quarter-end. It seems like […]
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Date: September 27, 2024
Volatility Low As More All-Time Highs Click In Weakest Week
For what has traditionally been the weakest week of the year, so far so good for the bulls. I need to do some work on what happens after the weakest week goes by without weakness. As the Dow Industrials and S&P 500 have hit fresh, all-time highs, the markets have really quieted down. Take a look at the Volatility Index (VIX) below. It is a solid teenager and looks to be headed lower. However, I would be surprised if it […]
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Date: September 25, 2024
