First Republic Goes Bye Bye
It was only a matter of time. I cannot believe everyone did not see it coming, but some held out hope. And remember, hope is not an investment strategy. FRC was taken over by the FDIC and sold to JP Morgan is a pre-packaged deal. And what a deal it was for JPM. Congrats to Jamie Dimon for yet another fire sale steal. And yet another stock that Jim Cramer liked as recently as March. The third bank failure in […]
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Date: May 1, 2023
Schizophrenic
The markets have been up and they have been down this week, looking a bit schizophrenic. I did not like what I saw on the way down on Tuesday and Wednesday and I wasn’t overjoyed about the huge rally on Thursday. And that is also represented in the amount of movement in our portfolios. Regardless of how this resolves, higher or lower, I do not want to get caught sleeping at the wheel. Between Google, Microsoft and Meta (the old […]
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Date: April 28, 2023
Quick & Ugly
On Monday I wrote that this “period of no volatility should end right about now.” Well, I didn’t think it would literally be that very moment nor to the degree that stocks fell on Tuesday. The decline on Tuesday was quick, ugly and relentless. Gold offered a little haven but bonds were really the only place to hide. If you are looking to assign blame I would look at the banks and more specifically to First Republic which has been […]
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Date: April 26, 2023
Huge 10 Days Coming for Earnings
This is a huge week for Q1 earnings with many high profile technology names like Google and Microsoft reporting. Apple is not until May 4th. When the big names report there are usually outsized moves in those stocks like we saw in Tesla last week. It matters because the mega cap stocks have very large weightings in the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100. So while the vast majority of stocks could do one thing, a big move by Google and/or […]
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Date: April 24, 2023
Like Watching Paint Dry
The markets haven’t been all that exciting this week. Choose your analogy. Watching paint dry. Watching grass grow. I chose the former since I am in full grass planting mode and it better grow quickly next week after the sun, rain and warmth coming. Below is an index I don’t often show, but one that the masses follow religiously. It’s the VIX index which is one measure of volatility based on the options market. Typically, when stocks fall the VIX […]
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Date: April 21, 2023
Tax Day Trend & Two Sectors
Adios tax day 2023! It was good to se you go. Congrats to all of my CPA readers who braved another season and survived. I feel like there was more work done this year than in the recent past with more preliminary 1099s than ever before. Twitter was abuzz about paying taxes. 10% of taxpayers pay 80% of taxes which makes sense in a progressive tax system. Liz Warren claimed that Americans are paying so much in taxes simply because […]
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Date: April 19, 2023
All That Good News to Begin Earnings Season
Now that JP Morgan has reported earnings, Q1 earnings season is officially here. Banks usually kick us off and we saw a slew of solid reports to end last week. So far, rumors of more banks’ demise are not panning out. And let’s not forget about the benign CPI and PPI reports last week, further confirming inflation’s demise. However, with oil rallying, that tailwind has dissipated. With all that good news, the stock market should have soared, right? Below is […]
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Date: April 17, 2023
Inflation Data Benign – Strong & Weak Indices
After a benign CPI report, the PPI report was even more tame, continuing to support my longstanding theme of inflation moderation. This has been an amazing story as we now have 9 straight months of lower month over month inflation. I can’t find a similar streak over the past 50 years and I saw on Twitter you have to go back to the 1930s to see, not exactly a valid comp. Of course and obviously, it is difficult to see […]
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Date: April 14, 2023
Bears Are Wrong – Yet Again
As I finish this post, the government just released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and it came in a touch cooler than expected across the board. Inflation continues to moderate as has been my thesis for a year. While it is not getting back to the Fed’s arbitrary long-term target of 2%, it should still slowly meander to some new normal level below 4%. And yes, this takes more pressure off the Fed to raise rates higher for longer. I […]
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Date: April 12, 2023
A Powerful Indicator Just Lit Up – Not to Be Ignored
The major stock market indices continue to digest recent gains. We know that the Dow Industrials, S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 have been leading while the S&P 400 and Russell 2000 have been lagging. I expected Friday’s employment report to lead to some Monday morning fireworks, but that doesn’t seem to be the case. Stocks look down a bit and bonds a little worse, but nothing too bad. The bulls should make some noise during the day. Those of you […]
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Date: April 10, 2023
