April & Q2 Setting Up Nicely For The Bulls But Concerns Remain
Let’s focus on April and what it seasonally brings to the stock market. We know that it an historically strong month for stocks, especially in a pre-election year. We also know that when it begins the month in an uptrend, it averages more than 1% return. We also know that the super strong trends that began at last November’s election continue this month and through Q2. Regarding Q1 ending, when the stock market does not breach the lowest levels from […]
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Date: April 6, 2023
New Month & Quarter – Could Banks Be a Winner?
The new month and new quarter begin today and the typical tailwind may be somewhat muted because of how strong stocks were last week. Nonetheless, we still have positive seasonals this week. With the masses looking to avoid showing banks on their Q1 ending reports I wonder if we see some reversion to the mean for the super hated sector that was in the spotlight for much of Q1. I can’t say the chart above of the banks really creates […]
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Date: April 3, 2023
Never Die on the Hill of a Market Scenario
Although the media keeps saying how surprised they are about the strength this week, it was in the cards last week and I wrote about it in all posts. It’s really amazing how they try to spin a new narrative to back up the price again. Last week, it was about the teetering banking system and how easy it is to create a bank run. Who would be next? Or, would Yellen’s and the FDIC’s measures save the system from […]
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Date: March 31, 2023
Seasonals Remain Strong – Banks Still Key
As I mentioned on Monday this week continues to be strong on a seasonal basis. Last week’s high in the various major stock market indices is the next point for the bulls and bears to embrace. Until then on the upside it is just noise, however I do believe the market will exceed those highs shortly. Beyond this week, we also have strong seasonal trends in April and the entire Q2. Remember, seasonals act as nice tailwinds or headwinds, but […]
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Date: March 29, 2023
It’s ALL About the Banks
I know it was a big ask for both Huskies teams to make it to Texas, but the men came through and earned their first Final Four appearance since 2014. Friday was another interesting day in the saga of Silicon Valley Bank, Signature and Credit Suisse. It was only a matter of time before the bears turned their focus to Deutsche Bank as I mentioned last week. The difference is that the German government is not going to allow DB […]
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Date: March 27, 2023
Stress Ahead of the Weekend – Yellen & Her Flip Flops
The Fed did what was expected and hiked 1/4%. Jay Powell’s press conference was viewed positively by the markets. It looks like maybe one more 1/4% rate hike and then to neutral. But Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen overshadowed Powell by doing a flip flop of her flip flop. And I am not referring to the rubber things I wear on my feet when it’s warm. On Wednesday she commented that the government has no intention of guaranteeing an unlimited amount […]
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Date: March 24, 2023
Fed to Hike by 1/4% – Balance Sheet Balloons Again!
Today, the FOMC (Fed) concludes their regularly scheduled two-day meeting. And for the first time in years, there are two outcomes being discussed by market participants which makes today all the more interesting. The stock market model for the day is plus or minus 0.50% and then a rally into the close post-2pm. However, we should realize that the stock market has rallied smartly into the announcement, taking some firepower away. In my view what usually is an 80% certainty […]
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Date: March 22, 2023
UBS, Fed and More of the Same
While the major stock market indices struggled on Friday and it looked on the ugly side, the range from high to low was still in between the range from Thursday. The NASDAQ 100 remains the strongest and the S&P 400 and Russell 2000 remain the weakest. I would like to see the weak bounce without the leaders ceding. That may be a tall task right here, but the bulls need to get prices to close above Thursday’s high. Over the […]
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Date: March 20, 2023
Markets Still on Edge
The end to a volatile week is here and the “risk on” markets fared well over the past two days. The bears tried to break keenly watched levels, but they were thwarted at each attempt. The NASDAQ 100 has behaved very well along with other growth indices while mid and small cap have been lagging. This combination makes an assessment more challenging. While I love seeing tech and the subsectors rally and lead, the market absolutely needs the financials to […]
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Date: March 17, 2023
Volatility Rising But Nowhere Close to 2008 or Even 2022
I am still surprised that Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) created so much panic and anxiety over the weekend since the news broke on Friday. I guess losing two banks in the blink of an eye with the second and third largest failures in history reminded too many people of 2008. As I have said too many times to count, this is not 2008. It’s not even close except that it’s in the same millennium. Don’t get me wrong. I am […]
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Date: March 15, 2023
