Was It Just a Bounce From the August Mini-Crash?
Two things we know. September is the worst month of the year from a seasonal perspective. And September to mid-October is seasonally weak in election years. Two weeks ago I mentioned that if the NASDAQ 100 and semiconductors were about to fail, it was going to get ugly in the short-term. I think it’s safe to say that they have failed as you can see both charts below. With the two negative seasonal patterns and the failure, both the semis […]
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Date: September 6, 2024
Friday Was All About Window Dressing & Month-End Mark Up
Welcome back from the kinda, sorta end of summer. I hope you had lots of fun with family and friends. We saw friends Friday night, went to a really fun 50th party on Saturday and had a huge BBQ on Sunday. I tested out my 69 day rested shoulder on Monday without any issues. What a relief. I was so happy. Friday was month-end and ahead of a long weekend. My sense is that liquidity was poor and there was […]
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Date: September 3, 2024
No Stock Market Crash From Nvidia
The stock market keeps surviving each event the media makes into potential Armageddon. On Wednesday, I wrote about Nvidia and the likelihood for a move outside of $131 and $123. That came in the form of a less than perfectly stellar report and sharp move on heavy volume to the downside. Smart money knew the odds. For now, I think rallies above $121 are selling opportunities. Super Micro crashed even more. Almost 100% of the AI gains have been wiped […]
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Date: August 30, 2024
It’s All About Nvidia Today – BE CAREFUL
Nvidia reports reports earnings late this afternoon. I will be happy to get this done since all anyone is focused on is this report. I mean, it’s important, but it is certainly not the end all, be all. While we have plenty of positions in the NASDAQ 100, which will be directly impacted, we also own large cap value, small caps, financials, biotech, staples, REITs and plenty of other things that have absolutely no correlation to Nvidia or AI or […]
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Date: August 28, 2024
Powell Delivers – Indices Diverge – Mega Cap Tech Lagging
Fed Chair Powell did not disappoint. He was brief and clearly confirmed that rate cuts were coming without offering the cadence. I was a bit surprised that markets hadn’t already priced that in since 95% of participants expected it. With the 2-Year under 4% and short-term rates above 5% there is plenty of room into 2025 for the Fed to juice the economy. The billion dollar question will be if it’s too late or more ammunition for the soft landing. […]
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Date: August 26, 2024
Powell On Tap With Dovish Songs
With the stock market’s winning streak ending a few days ago and Thursday being down moderately, will the media run crawls on screen today that stocks have been down two of the last three days? Will it be “BREAKING NEWS”? Today is Fed Chair Jay Powell’s annual speech from Jackson Hole, Wyoming. It has been on the calendar on all year. I expect it to be brief and dovish, but not offer cadence on how rate cuts will unfold. The […]
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Date: August 23, 2024
Finally A Down Day – Sentiment Back To Greedy
The stock market finally had a down day, albeit a small one where the damage was seen in the mid and small caps. The media can stop with the nonsense about how many up days in a row the S&P 500 has seen. The bottom line is that momentum has been strong and some thrusts off of the mini-crash low on August 5th have been triggered. While that’s relatively unimportant for the short-term, it does typically insulate the stock market […]
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Date: August 21, 2024
Earthquake Or Rogue Wave – A Look At 1997 & 1998 For Clues
Continuing on the theme I mentioned on Friday about an earthquake or rogue wave, I went back to the two international events that caused these in the 1990s. The first chart below is from 1997 when the Asian currency crisis hit in October. On that day in October the Dow Industrials saw their single largest point decline in history. Of course, on a percentage basis, it didn’t rank all that high. After an all-time high in early October and a […]
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Date: August 19, 2024
Early or Wrong?
The stock market has had a strong rally, at least price-wise since the earthquake 11 days ago. My thesis has been for several more aftershocks over the ensuing weeks and possibly longer. One thing I cannot argue with is the acceleration in what I have labeled as a bounce. I also have said that I would be surprised if the stock market went straight back to new highs. Aside from one aftershock last week, the bulls have powered ahead unabated. […]
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Date: August 16, 2024
Big Run Up – Sell a Higher Open
The rally off the earthquake low 9 days has been impressive price-wise, but anemic volume-wise. It looks like an absence of sellers versus an abundance of buyers. I have used the rally to reposition some portfolios and reduce exposure in others. I continue to believe there are more aftershocks coming later this month and in September. The securities that worry me the most are the ones that fell into last Monday’s mini-crash, but haven’t rallied with the market. We have […]
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Date: August 14, 2024
