Bad News Is Now, Well, Bad News – Markets Manic
On Friday, the employment report showed a gain of 114,000 new jobs in July. The unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, its highest level since October 2021. Both were weaker than expected. However, market reaction was a whole lot worse than those numbers would have indicated and that suggests more selling on Monday, perhaps even high magnitude selling. For all those crying for a rate cut, thinking it would just propel risk assets higher, bad economic news is now bad news […]
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Date: August 5, 2024
Bulls Wounded – New Lows Coming Soon
I am sure I am wrong, but I don’t recall two such opposite days like Wednesday and Thursday since 2020 and 2008 before that. Wednesday was insanely strong from a price perspective, especially in the beaten down tech area. Thursday was super weak across the board for the most part. In hindsight I think the bulls used cover from earnings to window dress portfolios for month-end and that’s it. The NASDAQ 100 is below. In real time, Wednesday looked like […]
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Date: August 2, 2024
***SPECIAL Fed Day Update – High Probability Opportunity***
Wednesday concludes the FOMC’s meeting with the Fed standing pat but likely offering dovish language in preparation of a September interest rate cut. The stock market model for the day is plus or minus 0.50% and then a rally post 2pm. Given the recent pullback as well as Tuesday’s action, the odds of a Fed day rally have greatly increased to 90% which means going long or adding to positions at Tuesday’s close. The challenge is that there are a […]
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Date: July 31, 2024
The Down & Outs Are Up & In – Huge Week Ahead
Friday saw the bulls come back to work after the pullback had reached deep enough for them to see value. I am not sure it has run its course, but I always try to be nimble enough to take action and not get stuck in a mindset. Since March I have written about a number of big picture portfolio moves as we have reduced exposure where it had been over 100% as well as reduced or sold off AI and […]
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Date: July 29, 2024
Lots Going On Beneath The Surface Of The Pullback
Happy Friday. Let’s talk pullback and what to glean from it. So far here is what has occurred. Dow Industrials -3% S&P 500 -4% S&P 400 -4% Russell 2000 -3.5% NASDAQ 100 -9% On the surface you may conclude that the pullback is basically even except for the NASDAQ 100. But you would be wrong. There is something important beneath the surface that the raw numbers do not show. First, all indices did not peak on the same day. The […]
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Date: July 26, 2024
Not Ready To Upgrade 1-3 Month View Just Yet
Two weeks ago I downgraded my 1-3 month view of the stock market as you know, looking for a 4-7% pullback. However, we also saw an epic surge in participation which was one of the concerns I had. I wasn’t sure how that would all play out. I shared that for the first time since 2018 I think, we had sold out of all of our sector semiconductor position. We also reduced position sizes in Nvidia and Tesla. Yesterday, we […]
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Date: July 24, 2024
Biden Out, Harris In – Does It Matter For The Markets?
Two weekends ago we had an assassination attempt on a former president. This past weekend the current president walks away from his incumbent race. And the U.S. is supposed to be the standard bearer for the world. Yeesh! I did learn something new about politics this weekend. All those who were reporting that President Biden would step down on Sunday afternoon actually knew what they were talking about and those folks have credibility. All those folks who vehemently and defiantly […]
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Date: July 22, 2024
Bears Making Some Noise – Or At Least Trying
Roughly a week ago, I downgraded my 1-3 month outlook on the stock market, citing a number of participation and sentiment concerns. The same day, we saw a once in a million to billion year event regarding the Russell 2000 and S&P 500. Since then, the small and mid cap stocks have strongly led at the expense of the mega caps, especially technology and AI. Over the past few days, that has morphed into the modest pullback I have written […]
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Date: July 19, 2024
BYE BYE Semiconductors, HELLO Small Caps! Generational Move!
Last Thursday, I wrote a blog downgrading my 1-3 month view of the stock market. That very day we saw a 6 sigma event or one in a million to billion year event that last occurred on October 10, 2008. My top concern had been eliminated which was the narrowness and diminishing participation in the rally. However, all concerns were not eliminated. While we did not make any major portfolio changes we did take some actions to harvest some acorns […]
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Date: July 17, 2024
Market Reaction To The Horrific Acts
With the unspeakable and heinous acts over the weekend, the presidential race has widened according to the polls taken. Additionally, the RNC convention begins tonight. This is important because it is likely that Donald Trump will take a commanding lead by the end of the week. It may be temporary, or not, but I fully expect the markets to pivot towards Trump 2.0 with stocks continuing the new theme of the “everything up market” that began last Thursday. Below is […]
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Date: July 15, 2024
