HOLY GEEZ!
Thursday was a day for the ages. It was one of those days that you only see a few times in your lifetime. Yes, your entire lifetime! In mathematical terms it was supposedly a 6 sigma event, meaning that it should only happen once in a million to billion years. I added the word “supposedly” because in my 35-year career I have seen enough 6 sigma events to know that what is supposed to happen mathematically and what does happen […]
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Date: July 12, 2024
Changing My View On The Stock Market Over The Next 1-3 Months
As you know, I have been almost universally bullish since September 2022, having gone so far out on a limb to declare that a new bull market would begin in Q4 2022. 2023 was an epic year. While the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 have continued that trend in 2024, the other major indices have not. This is not a new story, but one that has worsened. If you own Apple, Amazon, Google, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, Broadcom, Costco, Meta, Lilly […]
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Date: July 10, 2024
Nvidia. Again?
I hope you had a good 4th of July. It was super quiet for us as our kids all had plans and my shoulder remains too painful to really do anything besides sit in a pool and let buoyancy make it feel better. For once, I am listening to the docs and my body and actually resting. Back to back days that the markets close at 1pm. I don’t ever recall seeing that. People always ask me why they just […]
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Date: July 5, 2024
Another Bear Bites The Dust
Coming into 2024 there were at least four big bears among Wall Street strategists, Mike Wilson, Julian Emmanuel, Tony Dwyer and Marko Kolanovic. All four had been very negative since at least August 2022 with Wilson being bearish since April 2021. All four strategists had forecast a down year for the stock market in 2023 which turned in one of the best years this century. Coming into 2024, they didn’t pivot to the bullish side. Wall Street is in the […]
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Date: July 3, 2024
Taking Stock Of The Major Indices As Q3 Begins
Happy July 1st! Today is the start of the new week, month, quarter and half. Seasonally, today is a strongly positive day and that tailwind carries through until next Monday. I thought we would take stock of the major stock market indices today. The Dow Industrials is first and it is really just mired in a range. The S&P 500 is next and it looks different from the Dow. This index is dominated by the AI stocks like Nvidia, Microsoft, […]
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Date: July 1, 2024
“You’re the Worst Ever.” “No. You’re the Worst Ever.”
Sorry for the delay. I returned from a quick trip to Pittsburgh with a possible rotator cuff tear so typing is a bit more challenged than usual. I am fine, but going about my business a little slower. As you know I have said and I continue to strongly opine that the election is basically a non-factor for the markets and economy this year. Let all the media and pundits parse words and create hysteria that we can take advantage […]
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Date: June 28, 2024
And Another Round Of Bearish Indicators – Or Are They?
The past blogs I have discussed some negatives or warnings signs that have crept in the markets. Again, nothing big, nothing hugely vital. In the spirit of piling on, I will share two others today that have made the rounds for what seems like forever. Pundits and analysts always talk about how important it is for rallies to have broad participation with the troops outpacing the generals. One way to analyze this is the chart (s) below. The first one […]
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Date: June 24, 2024
And More Warning Signs For Stocks
Today is one of the enormous quarterly derivative expiration days where markets tend to see huge volume with a few oddities during the afternoon. I don’t see much else and I will touch on Thursday’s dramatic downside reversal on Monday. Following up from yesterday’s somewhat negative bent on the stock market, I want to share three other charts which adds fuel to the fire. Below shows the S&P 500 on top with a chart of the 52-week highs below. You […]
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Date: June 21, 2024
Warning Signs Creeping Into The Stock Market
This week I saw that Goldman Sachs, Evercore ISI and Citi all raised their year-end targets for the S&P 500 which now sits just under 5500. For the record, their previous targets were 5100, 4750 and 5100. As with 2023, these firms have been woefully wrong. But they are really good at chasing the market higher and then claiming they got it right when the bell rings. All this got me thinking that when the masses start chasing, should we […]
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Date: June 20, 2024
Looking at Yields Again
Between the cooler inflation numbers and the FOMC meeting this week, yields on bonds have come down in a rather large way. As you know, the 10-Year yield in the long-term benchmark and most heavily traded. Let’s look at the 10-Year using two different time frames. Below are treasury yields over the past year. 5% was the high profile peak last October with 3.75% being the low in December. I had thought yields would have visited 4.8% before they saw […]
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Date: June 16, 2024
