And More Warning Signs For Stocks
Today is one of the enormous quarterly derivative expiration days where markets tend to see huge volume with a few oddities during the afternoon. I don’t see much else and I will touch on Thursday’s dramatic downside reversal on Monday. Following up from yesterday’s somewhat negative bent on the stock market, I want to share three other charts which adds fuel to the fire. Below shows the S&P 500 on top with a chart of the 52-week highs below. You […]
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Date: June 21, 2024
Warning Signs Creeping Into The Stock Market
This week I saw that Goldman Sachs, Evercore ISI and Citi all raised their year-end targets for the S&P 500 which now sits just under 5500. For the record, their previous targets were 5100, 4750 and 5100. As with 2023, these firms have been woefully wrong. But they are really good at chasing the market higher and then claiming they got it right when the bell rings. All this got me thinking that when the masses start chasing, should we […]
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Date: June 20, 2024
Looking at Yields Again
Between the cooler inflation numbers and the FOMC meeting this week, yields on bonds have come down in a rather large way. As you know, the 10-Year yield in the long-term benchmark and most heavily traded. Let’s look at the 10-Year using two different time frames. Below are treasury yields over the past year. 5% was the high profile peak last October with 3.75% being the low in December. I had thought yields would have visited 4.8% before they saw […]
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Date: June 16, 2024
***SPECIAL Fed Update – Cost of Living Index at All-Time High – Dow to 50,000***
Today is FOMC statement day. The model for the S&P 500 is plus or minus 0.50% until 2pm and then volatility with a rally. There are two problems with the model today. First, stocks have rallied smartly into the meeting which pulled forward the anticipated strength. Second, this morning’s CPI release came a tad cooler than expected although the cost of living index scored yet another all-time high. Pre-market futures looks higher by more than 1%. The model says to […]
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Date: June 12, 2024
Comparing Nvidia to Dotcom Bubble, Election Impact & Reading The Fed
Comparing Nvidia to Dotcom Bubble, Election Impact & Reading The Fed On Friday we bought levered S&P 500. We sold EMB.
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Date: June 10, 2024
Analogs To The Dotcom Bubble
This is going to be a quick blog as I am traveling. I have seen some social media posts and heard some chatter from folks comparing today’s Nvidia-led market to that of the Dotcom Bubble. The most recent Chicken Little chart is below which shows the vast majority of stocks underperforming the S&P 500 index, similar to 1998-1999. Keep in mind during the Dotcom Bubble, this condition last more than two years. Additionally, market participation is worlds better today than […]
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Date: June 6, 2024
Now It’s a Slowdown
Inflation, inflation, inflation. Jobs, jobs, jobs. That’s all we’ve heard all year. Yet, this week the narrative seems to have changed to a slowdown. Is it the elusive “soft landing” so many positioned for in 2024? Is it recession? For now, it seems like just chatter and drivel without hard data backing it up. Let’s take a look at the 10-Year below to see what the market is fussing about on the far right of the chart. Yields have come […]
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Date: June 5, 2024
May Certainly Ended With a Bang
I had my 40th high school reunion on Saturday. Since reunions started at the 5 year mark, the only one I have missed was my 35th when I had that tiny little mishap with that 50 foot silver maple and those 35 broken bones. It was so much fun to see old classmates and friends whom I hasn’t seen in years. Thankfully, Facebook lets many of us stay in touch. Very uncharacteristically for me, in my excitement to catch and […]
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Date: June 3, 2024
How Quickly Things Change
On May 22nd after the close, Nvidia reported blow out earnings and announced a 10:1 stock split. I said the stock should exceed $1000 in after hours trading and it did, but that’s not relevant. What was super important about the next day was that while Nvidia surged higher, the rest of the market gapped and crapped, meaning the stock market shot up at the open and then sold off the rest of the day to close at or near […]
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Date: May 30, 2024
Transports Lagging Badly Since 2021 – But Does It Matter?
Friday saw a new closing high in the NASDAQ 100 which was unaccompanied by any of the other major indices. That index is below. It really doesn’t see clear skies until it closes above last Thursday’s nasty reversal day. The S&P 500 and Russell 2000, both below, obviously look weaker, but the former can be repaired rather easily. The latter not so much. What I have really wanted to discuss was the Dow Transportation Index which has been super weak […]
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Date: May 28, 2024
