Know When to Hold ‘Em, Know When to Fold ‘Em – Media’s Parade of Pundits
So the Fed stood pat. Powell was hawkish and left the door wide open for another rate hike in July. I think they are done. I have said they should have been done before 5% as the 2-Year Note told us. Stocks sold off on the news. And then went straight up to the close and followed through on Thursday. I can’t imagine what the bears thought and did after they finally saw some market weakness on the announcement, only […]
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Date: June 16, 2023
The Fed is Woefully Wrong & Jay Powell Has Become a Cocktail Party Punchline
As the popular 80s band, Whitesnake, once wrote, “Here I go again on my own. Going down the only road I’ve ever known.” You can substitute the “I” for “we” and you have the FOMC of the Federal Reserve. You know that group. The ones that raise and lower interest rates without fully assessing the markets and economy. The ones who are supposed to be smartest financial minds on earth and the greatest bankers. Before I continue, let me offer […]
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Date: June 14, 2023
Big Week Ahead – Bears May Get Something to Chew On
The markets return from the weekend with two highly anticipated “events” this week. First, we have the CPI (inflation) report on Tuesday and then that pesky ole group at the Fed concludes their meeting on Wednesday. Right now, markets expect another benign inflation report resulting in the Fed standing pat on interest rates. While that’s all well and good and you know how bullish I have been all year, I feel like the bull camp has become a bit too […]
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Date: June 12, 2023
Harvesting Some Acorns & Reducing Risk
It has been a quiet few days, but certainly not an opportunity-less few days. The major stock market indices have been bullishly digesting some very sizable recent gains. Gold and bonds have not. During the week, I used some of the continued abnormally strong action in the NASDAQ 100 to lower risk by rotating into the Dow Industrials. This comes at a time when I sense lots of investors recognizing what my readers have known since October; this is a […]
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Date: June 9, 2023
Bears in Tougher Spot w/ Small Caps & Junk Jumping
Tuesday’s market action in the downtrodden mid and small caps certainly answered the question as to whether Friday was a one-day wonder. It also kicked the bears right in the teeth. You remember those bears? The ones who claimed the mid and small caps couldn’t rally and were the “real” market indicating impending doom. Well, on the far right of the chart below, you can see a monster two-day rally in the Russell 2000. And it looks like it has […]
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Date: June 7, 2023
WHAT Will The Bears Say NOW?
I lost track of all the pundits and people who came into 2023 so negative, so defensive and so beared up. Those constant calls of a bear market, recession, inflation and the Fed gave me great chuckles for five months. And yes, some, many or much of the data pointed to recession coming, I kept hammering on the fact that the economy cannot be in recession or close to recession when hundreds of thousands of new jobs are being created […]
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Date: June 5, 2023
The Masses Remain Very Wrong
Two days ago, I argued that selling the rally post-debt ceiling agreement was the right strategy. After all, stocks had rallied sharply into the announcement and the underpinnings have not been super solid. Rather, as the masses have reported, the rally has been well short of powerful and impressive with essentially 7 stocks accounting for almost all of the gains in the S&P 500 this year. However, most of these pundits are the same ones who have been holed up […]
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Date: June 1, 2023
Behavior Befitting The Dotcom Bubble – Sell The Debt Ceiling News
The stock market continues to exhibit behavior that is really enjoyable if you are in the right indices, sectors and stocks, but not so much fun for the masses who are not. Specifically, the NASDAQ 100, semis, software and other technology at the expense of almost everything else. On the smallest level, it reminds me of the Dotcom Bubble. Yes, that Dotcom Bubble where it didn’t exactly end so well. Astute observers may also recall the inverted yield curve from […]
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Date: May 30, 2023
Stocks Pull Back on Schedule
The media is all over the stock market decline that has been going on for all of two days. Two days after a super nice rally off of the March lows. And the decline began almost perfectly on schedule as the leading NASDAQ 100 exceeded the key high from last August and the S&P 500 breached its 2023 high. See the charts below. Many or most times when prices revisit a previous peak or trough, they back off before going […]
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Date: May 24, 2023
Will the Economy Always Be Like This?
Without an adequate understanding of where their financial security stands in times like these, even high-net-worth investors sometimes feel as though stability is out of reach. However, with a firm grasp of economic trends and practices—and the insight for making informed investment decisions when times are tough—there is hope for a prosperous future. The important thing now is to remember that we aren’t in a recession, not yet. It looks increasingly likely for the fourth quarter of the year or […]
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Date: May 22, 2023
Still Talking Debt Ceiling But PGA Was The Story
With an upward bias, markets continue to be quiet as the debt ceiling gets closer and closer to being hit. The NASDAQ 100 remains the leading index followed by the S&P 500. The Dow Industrials are in no man’s land with the S&P 400 and Russell 2000 being the caboose. Nothing has changed. The market is being led by a handful of stocks that are being powered by the AI craze. Sooner or later there will be a swift pullback […]
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Date: May 22, 2023
Will Pundits Finally Turn Bullish?
I am looking forward to seeing many of you tonight at the next Heritage Capital virtual event as we learn a delicious new dessert and bake it on our kitchens. Of course with Friday being here, adult libations are welcome and encouraged. We are working on the in person client event for late summer. Stand by. Markets are getting much more interesting. I have been pretty much pounding the table positive since September. It hasn’t always been easy, but that […]
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Date: May 19, 2023
Lots of Creeping Going On
Markets sniffed a little weakness into the close on Tuesday. That’s about all I can say. It was another dull, have/have not, kind of day. The NASDAQ 100 has crept higher. The S&P 500 has crept sideways. The S&P 400 and Russell 2000 have crept lower. Tech sectors are doing well. Banks are groping for a bottom. Discretionary is percolating for a move higher. Most other sectors and a tad weak. Everything is incremental. It seems like most people are […]
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Date: May 17, 2023
Standoff at The O.K. Corral
Markets remain quiet. Early weakness seems to be find buyers. Early strength is not building on itself. We have a standoff at O.K. Corral. Last week I shared the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100. The latter being the market leader with the former getting to the top end of its range. To be fair and balanced, below is the laggard which is the Russell 2000 Index of small caps. It looks nothing like the leading indices. The 1700 area has […]
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Date: May 15, 2023
The Masses Freaking Out Over the “Narrow” Market
It’s always good to be back home. While I really like the Valley of the Sun and the constant sunshine without humidity, there’s nothing quite like spring in New England. The annual Uncommon Knowledge conference of my trade association was once again an amazing and rewarding experience. The agenda was chock full of incredible speakers and I learned so much that I can’t wait to implement. The networking with fellow advisors was its usual enormous benefit along with meeting many […]
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Date: May 12, 2023
Pause to Refresh But Hanging In as Media Discovers Russell Problem
Having survived the Fed, Apple and the jobs report, the markets scored a big win for the bulls on Friday. All of the concerns I had were almost all gone based on Friday’s action, but they do remain in place. Friday was one of those “rising tides lifts all ships” kind of day. The despair from the Fed was gone because Apple had good earnings and the February and March strong jobs reports were revised lower, something I started to […]
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Date: May 9, 2023
Getting Defensive Against a Recession
Affluence can make it easy to believe that you are immune to economic downturns. After all, it typically involves having substantial assets, investments, and resources at your disposal. History has shown us time and again, however, that even the wealthiest individuals can be impacted by financial crises. That is why it’s essential to prepare for a 2023 recession: You need a solid plan in place to protect your savings and assets. In the sections below, I discuss the unique challenges […]
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Date: May 8, 2023
***Q1 Client Update***
What a difference the turning of the calendar makes. Stocks and bonds both fell moderately in December to end the single worst year in diversified investing of the modern era. Coming into 2023, my thesis was that the bear market in stocks and bonds had ended in October 2022 and that 2023 was going to be the front-loaded year of the bull. It only took the bulls a few days to get their legs underneath before they exerted their pressure […]
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Date: May 8, 2023
Apple & Jobs to The Rescue
The stock market has now survived the Fed meeting, Apple’s earnings and the April jobs report. I think there is one other item, but I can’t recall. The stock market was lower into and after the Fed as Jay Powell remained hawkish, but to a lesser degree. After Thursday’s close, Apple beats expectations and the bump carried over to the pre-market this morning. While the economy created more jobs than expected in April which feeds fuel to the Fed’s fire, […]
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Date: May 5, 2023
The Fed is Clueless If They Raise Rates Again Today
Here we go. Another one of those “most important Fed meetings ever” nonsense from the media. “SPECIAL Coverage”. Oh boy. I couldn’t sleep with all that anticipation. Those of you who know me know my usual sarcasm. Before I continue, let me spell out the market model for today. Stocks trade between plus and minus 0.50% until 2pm and then a bigger move happens. That’s usually to the upside, but Chair Jay Powell’s tenure has changed that a bit. With […]
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Date: May 3, 2023
