Powerful 5 Day Run For The Bulls
Sorry for the delay in getting this out. I had an early morning flight from South Carolina back to CT after visiting clients and the WIFI on the plane did not work. I flew Spirit because it was the only nonstop flight. 12 years ago, I swore I would never do that again after they tested charging to use the bathroom. I thought that was beyond absurd. I broke my promise to myself and I will not be doing that […]
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Date: November 3, 2023
***Fed Rate Hike Cycle Over – Early Signs of Recession Growing***
Let’s start this Fed update with the trends. The model for the day should be familiar by now. Look for the stock market to be plus or minus 0.50% until 2pm and then a big move. Had stocks not rallied smartly over the past two days, it would have been one of those rare, all in days where the trend’s accuracy is over 90%. Still, the post-2pm move favors the bulls into the close. The FOMC is not going to […]
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Date: November 1, 2023
Some Things That Bother Me About The Stock Market
Friday was an odd day. The Dow Industrials, S&P 400 and Russell 2000 were all down more than 1% while the S&P 500 was down about half that and the NASDAQ 100 was up 0.50%. The net number of stocks advancing was -1400 which was bearish. Markets rarely bottom on Friday so we look for the next attempt at a low early this week. To change it up, let me offer several things I do not like. First, I continue […]
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Date: October 30, 2023
Green Shoots or Sucker Shoots?
When I get the same few questions often in a short period of time, I assume that lots and lots of folks are thinking the same thing. One of those questions had to do with the impact and the war in the Middle East on the U.S. markets. I have said that I do not believe the current decline in stocks and bonds has much to do with the war. But what about the potential for nuclear war? What if […]
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Date: October 27, 2023
Groping For a Low… Again
The streak was broken! Whether you look at the S&P 500 or the NASDAQ 100, we no longer have to hear about either index being up X straight Mondays. It was certainly an odd phenomena. And my cursory view of Fridays didn’t reveal any “sign of relief” type rally where Thursday and/or Fridays were sold ahead of the weekend. I am sure someone a lot smarter than me can probably find some rationale. The S&P 500 fell below 4200 on […]
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Date: October 25, 2023
Smart Social Security Facts: Your Guide to Tax Planning for 2024
Most people we are talking to about their plans for a comfortable, secure retirement have serious concerns about inflation and a potential recession in 2024. When they added the complexities of Social Security’s eligibility requirements, planning for the future became even more complicated. They want to make the right decisions to maximize their after-tax lifetime benefits. Social Security may or may not produce a meaningful monthly income for you. But, at a minimum, it extends the life of your other […]
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Date: October 23, 2023
Ugly Friday For The Bulls But It IS Monday – Scenario Building For Q4
Friday was an ugly day for the bulls, certainly price-wise. The NASDAQ played downside catch up from what has been an outperforming position. Interestingly, the number of stocks advancing versus declining was the strongest of the past three days. I added a scenario which I thought was almost dead. It’s in light blue below and quickly drawn in. The S&P 500 has some more downside this week to breach the October lows and bottom somewhere around 4200. 4200 is not […]
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Date: October 22, 2023
Short-Term Turns Down – Q4 Studies Still Point Higher
In today’s blog I am going to share some very short-term comments first and then expand those to October and Q4 after the two charts I post. The stock market did not make it back up to the 4400 level I discussed earlier in the week and last week. Rather, it turned south and now appears to be heading towards the 4200 area which coincides with where the decline stopped earlier this month as well as where the popular average […]
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Date: October 20, 2023
Medicare, Social Security and a Drop in Stock Market Risk
Let’s start with some general financial planning tidbits. First, Medicare open enrollment started on October 16th and goes through December 7th. If you are 65 or soon to be 65 or want to change plans, this is for you. Do not delay! This is your annual opportunity. Second, the Social Security Administration just announced that the cost of living adjustment (COLA) for 2024 will be 3.2%. That means your gross social security benefit will rise by 3.2% in 2024. As […]
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Date: October 18, 2023
More Evidence of The Bottom
As you know the time and price targets for a bottom were met. The window for a bottom opened a few weeks ago and it’s hard to argue that a low has not been seen. The only push back the bears can offer is whether or not it was the bottom for Q4. The bears will say it wasn’t while the bulls will say it was. I added a third blue line to the very familiar chart below. It’s highest […]
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Date: October 16, 2023
Better Be Watching The Dollar
With Wednesday’s hotter than expected PPI, the market made it three straight negative news pieces that resulted in a higher stock market. On Thursday, we had a hotter Consumer Price Index (CPI) that ended the streak. While the CPI put a damper on prices it was really the results of the day’s Treasury auction that roiled markets, at least for a few hours. It was yet another auction with less enthusiasm than expected resulting in higher yields. The chart below […]
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Date: October 13, 2023
The Most Bullish Thing a Market Can Do
If you’re keeping score at home, I think we now have three straight pieces of negative news where the stock market reacted positively. First, last Friday’s employment report was very strong which means a more vigilant Fed. Stocks staged a massive reversal to the upside. Then we had the unspeakable Hamas invasion of Israel. Stocks opened sharply lower and closed higher. This morning, the Producer Price Index came in hotter than expected (higher inflation) and markets look to open higher. […]
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Date: October 11, 2023
Big Gains on Friday – Bell Ringing?
The horrific and barbaric events of the weekend in Israel by Hamas will certainly overshadow the markets’ short-term trends. I was surprised that Israel’s stock market did not close down more than the 7% it did on Sunday. Our market isn’t even indicating a give back of the big gains on Friday. And FYI, the bond market is closed for the federal holiday today. On Friday the government released employment data for September. Job growth was well beyond expectations, but […]
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Date: October 9, 2023
Confident Retirement Planning in 2024: Overcoming Market Uncertainties
In a climate of rising volatility and speculation about a looming recession in 2024, charting your path to retirement might feel like steering a ship through stormy waters. You’ve worked hard to accumulate a substantial retirement nest egg as a professional, business owner, or executive. Now, you need a comprehensive retirement plan to protect your wealth during your 30+ years of retirement and document how you want your assets distributed to family members. In the short run, you need a […]
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Date: October 9, 2023
Still Waiting For The Bottom to Line Up
Thank you to those who attended last night webinar where we discussed the events of Q3, reviewed performance of our strategies and took a sneak peak at Q4. The stock market surely is taking its time getting to wherever it is going. Both time and price windows are open, but the indices have calmed over the past few days. That’s not typically the behavior seen if the ultimate bottom was just hammered in. So, in all likelihood, there should be […]
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Date: October 6, 2023
Something Breaking in The Markets – Still in The Zone & Getting Closer
Tuesday was not a pretty day in the markets, but it was really just more of the same. Bonds collapsed which means yields rose. Stocks fell. The dollar rallied. Rinse and repeat since mid-July. I can’t say it has been fun without many intervening rallies, but it also has not been disastrous, at least not yet. Stocks and risk assets remain under pressure to state the obvious. Both time and price are and have been in my zone for a […]
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Date: October 4, 2023
New Week, Month & Quarter – Bulls Have The Edge to Start
Friday ended the week, month and quarter. And it was definitely a tale of two halves, much like Q1 with early strength and later weakness. And you already know that both time and have price have opened the window for a stock market bottom. If all goes according to plan, the low we see should create an opportunity for a rally into January and it could be significant. And by the way, for all those who were skeptical about my […]
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Date: October 2, 2023
Is “A” Bottom or “THE” Bottom? The Window is Open
Monday was the first time in a month where some signs popped up of at least a short-term rally beginning. The bears waited all of one day to squash that notion as Tuesday was another win for the bears. Wednesday looked even better than Monday in terms of the market groping for a little low. We shall see what happens today. The most beaten down, ugliest indices, small and mid caps, have been hanging in this week. Here is the […]
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Date: September 28, 2023
Window For a Bottom Opens – VIX Needs to Spike
After being off for Yom Kippur yesterday, it feels like a Monday today. Markets behaved poorly to end last week, but hung in okay on Monday against another spike in long-term interest rates. Stocks are under pressure in the pre-market today. They need to close in the upper half of their range today to indicate at least a very short-term rally has begun. As I discussed last week, the window for a stock market low is now open as the […]
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Date: September 26, 2023
Retirement Amid 2024 Uncertainties: Planning Ahead with Confidence
2024 could be very challenging, with the potential for a recession during an election year. In other words, several uncertainties could increase market volatility. This uncertainty is compounded if you plan to retire in 2024 or recently retire. You may have a lot of questions or concerns about the future and what you can do to minimize certain risks: Should I retire in 2024? Have I saved enough for 30 years of retirement? How will market volatility affect my plans? […]
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Date: September 25, 2023
