Changing My View On The Stock Market Over The Next 1-3 Months
As you know, I have been almost universally bullish since September 2022, having gone so far out on a limb to declare that a new bull market would begin in Q4 2022. 2023 was an epic year. While the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 have continued that trend in 2024, the other major indices have not. This is not a new story, but one that has worsened. If you own Apple, Amazon, Google, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, Broadcom, Costco, Meta, Lilly […]
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Date: July 10, 2024
Elder Care
Below is an article from Horsesmouth, an online publication for advisors that I subscribe to and read daily. I thought it was unique and important to share. Margaret Newcomb, 69, is a retired teacher, and she is trying to protect her retirement savings by caring for her 82-year-old husband, who has severe dementia. At times, he has wandered away from his home. She attaches a tag to his shoelace with her phone number in case he gets lost. Limitations in […]
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Date: July 5, 2024
Nvidia. Again?
I hope you had a good 4th of July. It was super quiet for us as our kids all had plans and my shoulder remains too painful to really do anything besides sit in a pool and let buoyancy make it feel better. For once, I am listening to the docs and my body and actually resting. Back to back days that the markets close at 1pm. I don’t ever recall seeing that. People always ask me why they just […]
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Date: July 5, 2024
Another Bear Bites The Dust
Coming into 2024 there were at least four big bears among Wall Street strategists, Mike Wilson, Julian Emmanuel, Tony Dwyer and Marko Kolanovic. All four had been very negative since at least August 2022 with Wilson being bearish since April 2021. All four strategists had forecast a down year for the stock market in 2023 which turned in one of the best years this century. Coming into 2024, they didn’t pivot to the bullish side. Wall Street is in the […]
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Date: July 3, 2024
Taking Stock Of The Major Indices As Q3 Begins
Happy July 1st! Today is the start of the new week, month, quarter and half. Seasonally, today is a strongly positive day and that tailwind carries through until next Monday. I thought we would take stock of the major stock market indices today. The Dow Industrials is first and it is really just mired in a range. The S&P 500 is next and it looks different from the Dow. This index is dominated by the AI stocks like Nvidia, Microsoft, […]
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Date: July 1, 2024
“You’re the Worst Ever.” “No. You’re the Worst Ever.”
Sorry for the delay. I returned from a quick trip to Pittsburgh with a possible rotator cuff tear so typing is a bit more challenged than usual. I am fine, but going about my business a little slower. As you know I have said and I continue to strongly opine that the election is basically a non-factor for the markets and economy this year. Let all the media and pundits parse words and create hysteria that we can take advantage […]
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Date: June 28, 2024
And Another Round Of Bearish Indicators – Or Are They?
The past blogs I have discussed some negatives or warnings signs that have crept in the markets. Again, nothing big, nothing hugely vital. In the spirit of piling on, I will share two others today that have made the rounds for what seems like forever. Pundits and analysts always talk about how important it is for rallies to have broad participation with the troops outpacing the generals. One way to analyze this is the chart (s) below. The first one […]
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Date: June 24, 2024
Heritage Capital Uses Active Management to Help Reduce Investing Anxieties
Are you worried about the potential for market turbulence as we approach the end of the year? If so, you’re not alone. Millions of Americans share that concern due to inflation, a national debt that exceeds $34 trillion, unsettled global conditions, and an election year. You want to lower your concern level and be positioned to take advantage of buying opportunities in case the market overreacts. This is the role of active investment management during turbulent market conditions. You may […]
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Date: June 24, 2024
And More Warning Signs For Stocks
Today is one of the enormous quarterly derivative expiration days where markets tend to see huge volume with a few oddities during the afternoon. I don’t see much else and I will touch on Thursday’s dramatic downside reversal on Monday. Following up from yesterday’s somewhat negative bent on the stock market, I want to share three other charts which adds fuel to the fire. Below shows the S&P 500 on top with a chart of the 52-week highs below. You […]
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Date: June 21, 2024
Warning Signs Creeping Into The Stock Market
This week I saw that Goldman Sachs, Evercore ISI and Citi all raised their year-end targets for the S&P 500 which now sits just under 5500. For the record, their previous targets were 5100, 4750 and 5100. As with 2023, these firms have been woefully wrong. But they are really good at chasing the market higher and then claiming they got it right when the bell rings. All this got me thinking that when the masses start chasing, should we […]
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Date: June 20, 2024
Is Your 2024 Investment Strategy Still Aligned With Your Goals?
Today’s virtual world moves quickly, so staying ahead of market trends is crucial. So far, in 2024, we’ve experienced persistent inflation and continued interest rate fluctuations. And, the biggest uncertainty is a presidential election that will reshape the entire tax landscape in 2025. Based on recent market volatility, you may ask yourself if your investment strategy is still aligned with your goals, especially if you will retire in the next few years. As retirement planning specialists in New Haven, we […]
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Date: June 17, 2024
Looking at Yields Again
Between the cooler inflation numbers and the FOMC meeting this week, yields on bonds have come down in a rather large way. As you know, the 10-Year yield in the long-term benchmark and most heavily traded. Let’s look at the 10-Year using two different time frames. Below are treasury yields over the past year. 5% was the high profile peak last October with 3.75% being the low in December. I had thought yields would have visited 4.8% before they saw […]
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Date: June 16, 2024
***SPECIAL Fed Update – Cost of Living Index at All-Time High – Dow to 50,000***
Today is FOMC statement day. The model for the S&P 500 is plus or minus 0.50% until 2pm and then volatility with a rally. There are two problems with the model today. First, stocks have rallied smartly into the meeting which pulled forward the anticipated strength. Second, this morning’s CPI release came a tad cooler than expected although the cost of living index scored yet another all-time high. Pre-market futures looks higher by more than 1%. The model says to […]
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Date: June 12, 2024
Comparing Nvidia to Dotcom Bubble, Election Impact & Reading The Fed
Comparing Nvidia to Dotcom Bubble, Election Impact & Reading The Fed On Friday we bought levered S&P 500. We sold EMB.
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Date: June 10, 2024
Analogs To The Dotcom Bubble
This is going to be a quick blog as I am traveling. I have seen some social media posts and heard some chatter from folks comparing today’s Nvidia-led market to that of the Dotcom Bubble. The most recent Chicken Little chart is below which shows the vast majority of stocks underperforming the S&P 500 index, similar to 1998-1999. Keep in mind during the Dotcom Bubble, this condition last more than two years. Additionally, market participation is worlds better today than […]
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Date: June 6, 2024
Now It’s a Slowdown
Inflation, inflation, inflation. Jobs, jobs, jobs. That’s all we’ve heard all year. Yet, this week the narrative seems to have changed to a slowdown. Is it the elusive “soft landing” so many positioned for in 2024? Is it recession? For now, it seems like just chatter and drivel without hard data backing it up. Let’s take a look at the 10-Year below to see what the market is fussing about on the far right of the chart. Yields have come […]
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Date: June 5, 2024
May Certainly Ended With a Bang
I had my 40th high school reunion on Saturday. Since reunions started at the 5 year mark, the only one I have missed was my 35th when I had that tiny little mishap with that 50 foot silver maple and those 35 broken bones. It was so much fun to see old classmates and friends whom I hasn’t seen in years. Thankfully, Facebook lets many of us stay in touch. Very uncharacteristically for me, in my excitement to catch and […]
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Date: June 3, 2024
How Quickly Things Change
On May 22nd after the close, Nvidia reported blow out earnings and announced a 10:1 stock split. I said the stock should exceed $1000 in after hours trading and it did, but that’s not relevant. What was super important about the next day was that while Nvidia surged higher, the rest of the market gapped and crapped, meaning the stock market shot up at the open and then sold off the rest of the day to close at or near […]
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Date: May 30, 2024
Transports Lagging Badly Since 2021 – But Does It Matter?
Friday saw a new closing high in the NASDAQ 100 which was unaccompanied by any of the other major indices. That index is below. It really doesn’t see clear skies until it closes above last Thursday’s nasty reversal day. The S&P 500 and Russell 2000, both below, obviously look weaker, but the former can be repaired rather easily. The latter not so much. What I have really wanted to discuss was the Dow Transportation Index which has been super weak […]
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Date: May 28, 2024
Not Even Nvidia Could Prevent The Plunge – Time To Prune
As highly anticipated as Nvidia’s earnings were and the huge reaction, Thursday was an even more consequential day in the stock market. First, as I wrote about on Wednesday, I fully expected Nvidia to blow out earnings and the stock to soar above $1000 in the after hours trading on Wednesday. I don’t think there was any great stretch there or new revelation. The biggest test would be after the open to see what the stock did. For a while […]
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Date: May 24, 2024
