Tariffs, DOGE and The REAL Reason Why The Markets Are Cranky
Tariffs, DOGE and The REAL Reason Why The Markets Are Cranky On Wednesday we bought EWS, ITB and more FDN. We sold EIS, XLB and some FXI. On Thursday we sold PCY, EMB, some GDX and some XMMO.
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Date: March 7, 2025
***Q4 Client Report***
While many events took place in Q4, none were more important nor high profile than the election. And certainly, we haven’t seen an election more anticipated than this past one. And I hope we don’t ever again although I know that is unlikely. Recall that coming into the election I offered that the single best outcome for your money and the markets was shared power, meaning neither party swept. That would force a number of grand bargains without a single […]
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Date: March 6, 2025
Eggs or Energy?
The S&P 500 is now down 6% on a closing basis and the NASDAQ 100 is down 8%. The opportunity I just wrote about on Monday evaporated quickly that day and we took action in both directions as I wasn’t willing to let small losses turn into large ones on new positions. The magnitude of this pullback is stretching what I expected if this decline was to be the appetizer for the 7-9 week, 10%+ correction I saw coming in […]
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Date: March 5, 2025
Bulls Step Up – An Opportunity Worth Playing
As you know my working thesis has been that the recent mid-single digit pullback is not the 10%+ correction I forecast for 2025. Rather, I thought the Q1 pullback would lead to another rally, new highs or not, that would be followed by the bigger decline. The bulls stepped up in a big way on Friday as they pushed the markets much higher into the week’s and quarter’s end. Sentiment continues to become less bullish which is good for stocks. […]
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Date: March 3, 2025
Pullback Picks Up Steam
It only took two days to know if what we saw on Tuesday was a low or the bottom. Frankly, it really can’t count as either. Since the S&P 500’s all-time high last Wednesday, every single day has seen stocks close lower than where they opened. You can see this in red on the right side of the chart. And most days, they have closed near the low of the day. No one can argue that someone or something has […]
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Date: February 28, 2025
THE Bottom Or Just A Trading Low?
I am surprised at how many questions I received regarding whether the current stock market pullback was the 10%+ correction I called for this year. I need to do a better job articulating my thoughts here. The short answer is I don’t think so, but as we know, the markets don’t care what I think or want. My thesis has always been for an initial decline in Q1 and then a rally which could be to new highs again before […]
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Date: February 26, 2025
OUCH! That Hurt
Friday was an ugly day for the bulls and one that caught me a little off guard, just two days removed from a fresh high in the S&P 500. However, in the grand scheme of things, Friday was very much in line with how I have been thinking this year. Wednesday’s new high wasn’t confirmed by much else. It was more of an island of strength that got washed over sooner than later. It was a typical “risk off” day […]
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Date: February 24, 2025
No Mo’ Momo
My title for 2025 has been, The Year Momentum Died. I argued that buying and selling strength was going to be the most rewarding strategy. Well friends, that epitomizes what we are and have been seeing. Wednesday saw the S&P 500 finally breakout to the upside and get people a little more excited. I was hoping for a 1-2% spurt to perhaps do some selling and risk reduction. But the bulls couldn’t muster any momentum. They just kinda died. And […]
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Date: February 21, 2025
Bulls Fail At New Highs (For Now) – NASDAQ 100 Leading, Russell Still Lagging
As you know I have been waiting, patiently and not so patiently, for the stock market to print fresh, all-time highs. I thought we could see a quick 1-2% spurt higher that would be more of a selling opportunity than a momentum train higher. So what happened when the S&P 500 as shown below got to the old highs? It drifted quietly back to where it began the day. I would like to see the index close above 6130 this […]
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Date: February 18, 2025
Are All-Time Highs Really Here?!?!
It didn’t feel easy, but the S&P 500 got back to the old highs on Thursday and within a whisker of closing at fresh, all-time highs. It looks like there should be more upside coming with a possible 1-2% spurt higher. Interestingly, the market has ignored the constant barrage of tariffs and DeepSeek and DOGE. Remember what I write. It’s not what the news is, but how markets react. Markets will do what they want, especially when the news doesn’t […]
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Date: February 14, 2025
Inflation Hotter As Expected
We learned this morning that January inflation data was hotter than expected. I know my readers are not surprised because that is my theme for early 2025. Inflation should moderate during the second half of the year. And it was hot enough that I am sure pundits will talk about a Fed rate hike instead of cut. I think that’s unfounded and unwise. Let’s look, yet again, at the S&P 500 below. Not much going on this week. It remains […]
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Date: February 12, 2025
Bears Have The Ball
Friday’s action in the stock market saw the bears make a stand at precisely the moment they had to before the S&P 500 headed to new highs. Funny how that sometimes works. You can see on the far right side of the chart below how the bears have rejected the bulls with red at 6130, 6120 and now at 6100. That is three times with a lower level each time, meaning the bears are getting more aggressive. The behavior by […]
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Date: February 10, 2025
Indices Pressing Towards New Highs – Still Not A Buying Opportunity
Two straight weeks of blue Mondays followed by market bounces. The S&P 500 is just a good day away from new highs although my thinking has not changed that it would be more of selling opportunity that a buying of momentum one. That will change, but not before we see more meaningful downside to cleanse the greed and euphoria. I guess the S&P 500 could run a few percent in new highs, but I still think it needs damage to […]
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Date: February 7, 2025
Tariffs Creating Investor Anxiety
Tariffs on. Tariffs off. I sense this to be a theme going forward. The longer this lasts and the more times it happens, the more the markets will price in the outcome, whatever that may be. You already know my feelings about tariffs and protectionism. I won’t rehash that everyday. In my 2025 Fearless Forecast I wrote that one of my themes was that 2025 will fell worse than it actually is. Look at the S&P 500 below. It’s really […]
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Date: February 5, 2025
DeepSeek Last Monday – Tariffs Today
Tariffs will dominate the news this week as President Trump followed through on his threats against China, Canada and Mexico. I have long been against tariffs as an economic tool and I remain that way. No country can tariff its way to prosperity. No one wins a trade war. There are only losers. Yes. I fully understand that other countries do not play by the rules. But I am a free trader. I seek trade deals not protectionism. For the […]
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Date: February 3, 2025
Secure Your Golden Years: How to Effectively Plan Your Retirement in Connecticut with an AIF®
Retiring in Connecticut can be rewarding, but retirees face financial challenges. At Heritage Capital, located in Woodbridge, Connecticut, we specialize in personalized, tax-savvy strategies that help retirees protect their golden years. The AIF® designation held by Founder and President Paul Schatz further exemplifies our commitment to the highest standards of fiduciary responsibility, ensuring that we always put your interests first. Local expertise guarantees that we address the challenges and opportunities unique to retiring in Connecticut. The Retirement Landscape in Connecticut […]
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Date: February 3, 2025
Not A Market To Chase
Since Monday’s plunge the stock market has recovered “nicely”. However, the S&P 500 hasn’t gone anywhere in two months. The NASDAQ 100 either. Lots of chop in a trading range which is pretty much what I laid out in my 2025 Fearless Forecast, the year momentum died. Up, down, sideways, lots of frustration. I see it in our models. Some are full bore exposed at 200% and 300%. Others have very low exposure. And they’re moving all the time. It’s […]
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Date: January 31, 2025
Hawkish Pause From The Fed? Market Not In Great Shape
The model for today’s Fed day is plus or minus 0.50% until 2pm and then a rally. A high probability long trade was setting up nicely until yesterday’s rally. Now it’s just a coin flip. Jay Powell and the FOMC will take no action today although he may offer a hawkish pause where rates stay the same but his rhetoric is hawkish. The 2-Year Note currently sits at 4.21% with the Fed Funds Rate at 4.33%. That is as neutral […]
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Date: January 29, 2025
All-Time High S&P 500 – Is It The Selling Opp I Forecast?
Welcome back to a new week. I rooted for the Commanders. They lost. I rooted harder for the Bills. They lost. I hate the Eagles and the Chiefs. I rooted for the UCONN men. They lost. And I was so looking forward to visiting clients in Florida today where it will be 80 degrees. I think I have the flu and I canceled my trip. It’s okay. I can handle all the adversity! On Friday the S&P 500 hit fresh, […]
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Date: January 27, 2025
Fearless Forecast 2025 – Part II Calm Before The Storm
Finishing up the equities portion of the 2025 Fearless Forecast, let’s turn to sectors. Last year, I said that technology would not lead again, but also would not lag. And it finished in the middle. I liked financials, healthcare, biotechnology, energy and REITs. While financials led the market, the other sector picks lagged. For 2025, I see the same impact by tech. And I am going back to the well with biotech, energy and healthcare plus regional banks and retail […]
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Date: January 24, 2025
