***SPECIAL Fed Day Update – High Probability Opportunity***
Wednesday concludes the FOMC’s meeting with the Fed standing pat but likely offering dovish language in preparation of a September interest rate cut. The stock market model for the day is plus or minus 0.50% and then a rally post 2pm. Given the recent pullback as well as Tuesday’s action, the odds of a Fed day rally have greatly increased to 90% which means going long or adding to positions at Tuesday’s close. The challenge is that there are a […]
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Date: July 31, 2024
The Down & Outs Are Up & In – Huge Week Ahead
Friday saw the bulls come back to work after the pullback had reached deep enough for them to see value. I am not sure it has run its course, but I always try to be nimble enough to take action and not get stuck in a mindset. Since March I have written about a number of big picture portfolio moves as we have reduced exposure where it had been over 100% as well as reduced or sold off AI and […]
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Date: July 29, 2024
Enhancing Social Security With Active Management in Market Volatility
With inflation, healthcare costs, and rising home expenses, including high property taxes, Connecticut retirees struggle to cover their monthly needs with Social Security and pensions. Many are turning to their savings and investments to make ends meet. With so much economic uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, and concerns about Social Security’s future stability, how would a major stock market downturn affect your investments and retirement income? Many so-called financial gurus recommend a static, passive investment strategy that tracks a market index. But […]
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Date: July 29, 2024
Lots Going On Beneath The Surface Of The Pullback
Happy Friday. Let’s talk pullback and what to glean from it. So far here is what has occurred. Dow Industrials -3% S&P 500 -4% S&P 400 -4% Russell 2000 -3.5% NASDAQ 100 -9% On the surface you may conclude that the pullback is basically even except for the NASDAQ 100. But you would be wrong. There is something important beneath the surface that the raw numbers do not show. First, all indices did not peak on the same day. The […]
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Date: July 26, 2024
Not Ready To Upgrade 1-3 Month View Just Yet
Two weeks ago I downgraded my 1-3 month view of the stock market as you know, looking for a 4-7% pullback. However, we also saw an epic surge in participation which was one of the concerns I had. I wasn’t sure how that would all play out. I shared that for the first time since 2018 I think, we had sold out of all of our sector semiconductor position. We also reduced position sizes in Nvidia and Tesla. Yesterday, we […]
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Date: July 24, 2024
Connecticut Retirement Planning: Active Management vs. Traditional Strategies
Like many Connecticut retirees, are you worried about how rising inflation, market volatility, and higher taxes will affect your financial security? With geopolitical issues, uncertainty over the U.S. presidential elections, and potential changes in economic and tax policies, anxiety about retirement savings is higher than ever. Many are rethinking their traditional “set it and forget it” investment strategy due to all the unpredictability. Traditional investment approaches may work when the stock market is going up, but they often lack the […]
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Date: July 22, 2024
Biden Out, Harris In – Does It Matter For The Markets?
Two weekends ago we had an assassination attempt on a former president. This past weekend the current president walks away from his incumbent race. And the U.S. is supposed to be the standard bearer for the world. Yeesh! I did learn something new about politics this weekend. All those who were reporting that President Biden would step down on Sunday afternoon actually knew what they were talking about and those folks have credibility. All those folks who vehemently and defiantly […]
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Date: July 22, 2024
Bears Making Some Noise – Or At Least Trying
Roughly a week ago, I downgraded my 1-3 month outlook on the stock market, citing a number of participation and sentiment concerns. The same day, we saw a once in a million to billion year event regarding the Russell 2000 and S&P 500. Since then, the small and mid cap stocks have strongly led at the expense of the mega caps, especially technology and AI. Over the past few days, that has morphed into the modest pullback I have written […]
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Date: July 19, 2024
BYE BYE Semiconductors, HELLO Small Caps! Generational Move!
Last Thursday, I wrote a blog downgrading my 1-3 month view of the stock market. That very day we saw a 6 sigma event or one in a million to billion year event that last occurred on October 10, 2008. My top concern had been eliminated which was the narrowness and diminishing participation in the rally. However, all concerns were not eliminated. While we did not make any major portfolio changes we did take some actions to harvest some acorns […]
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Date: July 17, 2024
Market Reaction To The Horrific Acts
With the unspeakable and heinous acts over the weekend, the presidential race has widened according to the polls taken. Additionally, the RNC convention begins tonight. This is important because it is likely that Donald Trump will take a commanding lead by the end of the week. It may be temporary, or not, but I fully expect the markets to pivot towards Trump 2.0 with stocks continuing the new theme of the “everything up market” that began last Thursday. Below is […]
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Date: July 15, 2024
HOLY GEEZ!
Thursday was a day for the ages. It was one of those days that you only see a few times in your lifetime. Yes, your entire lifetime! In mathematical terms it was supposedly a 6 sigma event, meaning that it should only happen once in a million to billion years. I added the word “supposedly” because in my 35-year career I have seen enough 6 sigma events to know that what is supposed to happen mathematically and what does happen […]
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Date: July 12, 2024
Changing My View On The Stock Market Over The Next 1-3 Months
As you know, I have been almost universally bullish since September 2022, having gone so far out on a limb to declare that a new bull market would begin in Q4 2022. 2023 was an epic year. While the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 have continued that trend in 2024, the other major indices have not. This is not a new story, but one that has worsened. If you own Apple, Amazon, Google, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, Broadcom, Costco, Meta, Lilly […]
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Date: July 10, 2024
Elder Care
Below is an article from Horsesmouth, an online publication for advisors that I subscribe to and read daily. I thought it was unique and important to share. Margaret Newcomb, 69, is a retired teacher, and she is trying to protect her retirement savings by caring for her 82-year-old husband, who has severe dementia. At times, he has wandered away from his home. She attaches a tag to his shoelace with her phone number in case he gets lost. Limitations in […]
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Date: July 5, 2024
Nvidia. Again?
I hope you had a good 4th of July. It was super quiet for us as our kids all had plans and my shoulder remains too painful to really do anything besides sit in a pool and let buoyancy make it feel better. For once, I am listening to the docs and my body and actually resting. Back to back days that the markets close at 1pm. I don’t ever recall seeing that. People always ask me why they just […]
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Date: July 5, 2024
Another Bear Bites The Dust
Coming into 2024 there were at least four big bears among Wall Street strategists, Mike Wilson, Julian Emmanuel, Tony Dwyer and Marko Kolanovic. All four had been very negative since at least August 2022 with Wilson being bearish since April 2021. All four strategists had forecast a down year for the stock market in 2023 which turned in one of the best years this century. Coming into 2024, they didn’t pivot to the bullish side. Wall Street is in the […]
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Date: July 3, 2024
Taking Stock Of The Major Indices As Q3 Begins
Happy July 1st! Today is the start of the new week, month, quarter and half. Seasonally, today is a strongly positive day and that tailwind carries through until next Monday. I thought we would take stock of the major stock market indices today. The Dow Industrials is first and it is really just mired in a range. The S&P 500 is next and it looks different from the Dow. This index is dominated by the AI stocks like Nvidia, Microsoft, […]
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Date: July 1, 2024
“You’re the Worst Ever.” “No. You’re the Worst Ever.”
Sorry for the delay. I returned from a quick trip to Pittsburgh with a possible rotator cuff tear so typing is a bit more challenged than usual. I am fine, but going about my business a little slower. As you know I have said and I continue to strongly opine that the election is basically a non-factor for the markets and economy this year. Let all the media and pundits parse words and create hysteria that we can take advantage […]
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Date: June 28, 2024
And Another Round Of Bearish Indicators – Or Are They?
The past blogs I have discussed some negatives or warnings signs that have crept in the markets. Again, nothing big, nothing hugely vital. In the spirit of piling on, I will share two others today that have made the rounds for what seems like forever. Pundits and analysts always talk about how important it is for rallies to have broad participation with the troops outpacing the generals. One way to analyze this is the chart (s) below. The first one […]
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Date: June 24, 2024
Heritage Capital Uses Active Management to Help Reduce Investing Anxieties
Are you worried about the potential for market turbulence as we approach the end of the year? If so, you’re not alone. Millions of Americans share that concern due to inflation, a national debt that exceeds $34 trillion, unsettled global conditions, and an election year. You want to lower your concern level and be positioned to take advantage of buying opportunities in case the market overreacts. This is the role of active investment management during turbulent market conditions. You may […]
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Date: June 24, 2024
And More Warning Signs For Stocks
Today is one of the enormous quarterly derivative expiration days where markets tend to see huge volume with a few oddities during the afternoon. I don’t see much else and I will touch on Thursday’s dramatic downside reversal on Monday. Following up from yesterday’s somewhat negative bent on the stock market, I want to share three other charts which adds fuel to the fire. Below shows the S&P 500 on top with a chart of the 52-week highs below. You […]
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Date: June 21, 2024
