Risk Increasing – Important Time to Pay Attention
The stock market had a nice rally on Thursday. And price is getting closer to the upper line in the sand, 4555 or so where my thesis for another pullback would be more difficult. So far, the markets have done nothing wrong to negate further upside, but risk should begin to increase today. The next few weeks have a very negative seasonal headwind and there is major labor strike in the country. Interestingly, mega cap tech is not the sexy […]
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Date: September 15, 2023
CPI & Dollar Warm
Just a quick note today. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in a bit hotter than forecast, but that’s what the data were pointing at. I have written that inflation was likely finding a floor in the mid 3% area and that some increase was coming. But remember, the economy and markets are in very different places than they were two plus years ago when the Fed was well behind the curve. Now, Powell & company seem to have gone […]
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Date: September 13, 2023
Bulls Not Convincing, Yet
9-11 is always a difficult day. Everyone seems to know someone who perished in that unspeakable, cowardly terrorist attack. I lost a childhood friend and a fraternity brother. Many or most years, I repeat my story that day. I just don’t have the mental energy today. I simply hope that no one ever forgets what happened. Stocks are in the midst of what I think will end up being a feeble bounce. Sure, I could be grossly wrong and the […]
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Date: September 11, 2023
Stock Market in a Vulnerable Position
The stock market is now in a vulnerable position. Vulnerable doesn’t mean crash or bear market or even a decline. It just means that the path of least resistance is lower, not today or any day, just in general. The S&P 500 as seen below is now caught between last week’s high and the August lows. For the vulnerable regime to pass, we want to see either price level exceeded on a daily closing basis. I will speculate and say […]
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Date: September 8, 2023
Challenges of Residential Real Estate
Greetings from 36,000 feet as I make a quick trip to Florida to visit clients and a few new prospective clients. As I sit here my thinking on the markets is not any different from what I have been writing about so I decided to pivot to a totally different topic, interest rates. I am always interested in your feedback, positive or negative, so feel free to share. The worst kept secret of all-time is that interest rates have soared […]
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Date: September 6, 2023
The Spookiness of September Arrives
I keep chatting with folks who bemoan the end of summer because kids are back to school or they work in education. I had news for them. Summer ain’t over. Just like Punxsutawney Phil the groundhog, I see another 6 weeks of summer or pretty close. While ski season is less than 100 days away, I have no plans on mentally preparing just yet. August ended with a little whimper. Stocks sold off into the close while still in a […]
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Date: September 1, 2023
Nice Bounce But Not Convincing
Long-term bond yields have come down over the past two weeks. Ya know what that leads to in this climate? Stocks have bounced nicely over the past week although I sense that yesterday was the day of recognition, the day when people realized there has been a little rally. Usually, we see some weakness a day or two later. At this point the S&P 500 has regained a little more than half of what it lost. If my thesis regarding […]
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Date: August 30, 2023
BUT BUT BUT Nvidia Had a Blowout Quarter
When I got back from the Midwest on Wednesday night my middle son immediately wanted to discuss Nvdia’s absolute blowout earnings report. Before you start thinking that he’s another example of insanely bullish sentiment on the stock and AI in general, he has been all over AI and the semis for a number of years. He just doesn’t understand the ebb of flow of stock price movement. I told him that given the strong run up in the stock and […]
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Date: August 28, 2023
Long Lives & Tech Leaps: The Role of Generational Wealth Today
We continue to see the promising potential for extended life spans in an age of rapidly advancing technology and medicine. If you are 20, you have a 50% chance of living to be 100 or more. If you are already 60, you have a 50% chance of living to be 90 or more. Plus, there are emerging technologies that could extend lifespans even longer. While this is a somewhat futuristic perspective, we should ask ourselves: Are we prepared for our […]
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Date: August 28, 2023
It’s P Day
A year ago at this time, Fed Chair Jay Powell gave a very short and direct speech at Jackson Hole. Most people were surprised at how short his comments were, but no one misunderstood his powerful message which he followed through on ever since. I do not expect Powell’s speech to be as short as 2022 nor as direct and sharp. I expect him to continue to be mildly hawkish and report that the Fed’s job is almost but not […]
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Date: August 25, 2023
The Ultimate Guide to Understanding Your Social Security Benefits
Understanding how to manage your Social Security benefits is crucial to your overall retirement planning success as you approach retirement. As the owner of a Registered Investment Advisory firm in Woodbridge, CT, and a fiduciary financial advisor, I get to help individuals prepare for a successful retirement by answering questions such as: When should I start taking Social Security benefits? Can I still work while collecting Social Security? Will my Social Security benefits be taxed? How do withdrawals from retirement […]
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Date: August 23, 2023
Reversals Abound – All Eyes on Nvidia
Friday’s reversal from early losses looks interesting on a chart for sure as you can see below in the S&P 500, but Tuesday also showed a less impressive reversal. This time it was to the downside. While I expected more from the bulls after Friday, perhaps I am being a bit too impatient. We will have to see. In what has become the most anticipated earnings report in a long time, Nvidia reports after the close today. The chart is […]
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Date: August 23, 2023
State of the Pullback – Where It Ends, When and What to Buy
A new video has been posted! State of the Pullback – Where It Ends, When and What to Buy On Friday we sold RSYYX and levered S&P 500.
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Date: August 20, 2023
5% Pullback Hit – Low at Hand
I remember when COVID hit and NYC was the epicenter. The hysteria around metro living was pervasive and most predicted mass exoduses from the major cities for years and years to come. After all, who in their right mind would ever get into an elevator with other people? Who would ride subways and busses packed with others? Well, as I walked across town, the city was more crowded than ever, both in vehicles and walking. I didn’t see a single […]
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Date: August 18, 2023
OUCH Day on Tuesday
Tuesday was an “OUCH” day. The stock market was set up for a bounce and perhaps a multi-day bounce as I wrote on Monday. The bears pulled the rug out and it was a day that hurt the bulls. As you can see at the end of this post we ended up selling a good number of positions as the set ups failed and I was wrong. I mentioned before, but it’s important enough to reiterate. A few weeks ago […]
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Date: August 16, 2023
Pullback Not Over But Multi-Day Bounce Setting Up
Good Monday morning everyone. Mine began by being 5 minutes early. So, I decided to move a bag of fertilizer from the front of the garage to the back. I had to squeeze by my car which didn’t look to difficult. But it is a Monday morning. On the way to the back I smashed my left hand into my side view mirror of my car. Seeing stars quickly ensued. Then the swelling, throbbing and transition to black and blue. […]
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Date: August 14, 2023
Hard to Find Places to Hide
Stocks are through with most of earnings season and you know what? The major stock market indices haven’t gone anywhere and I don’t not believe they are set up to explode higher just yet. My tempered enthusiasm remains. Besides the big picture, short-term challenges, I am really having trouble finding things I want to own, regardless of my market take. I thought low volatility ETFs like SPLV would get some love along with utilities and staples, but the plunge in […]
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Date: August 11, 2023
Bull Market Intact. Q3 Pullback Intact. Bounce Setting Up.
Sorry for the late post. I just returned from Scotland yesterday and I am playing catch up, and one of my bags decided it wanted some time in London before returning to the States. It was a small, but motley crew and an epic trip to the Highlands. Only 1507 pictures taken. As you know, I have greatly tempered my enthusiasm for stocks over the past week or so. The bull market remains intact. Even this big leg […]
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Date: August 9, 2023
Apple, Amazon and Employment Report Lead to a Big Friday
As I wrote about the other day, markets were not happy that second rate rating firm, Fitch, using an odd combination of stale and subjective data downgraded the debt of the U.S. Stocks and bonds were hit hard, each losing more than 1%. As I tweeted on Thursday morning, more selling should be expected before the first short-term low is in. My tune remains the same. The bull market is alive and reasonably well. This pullback was one I started […]
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Date: August 4, 2023
U.S. Downgraded Again as Seasonal Trends for August Are Not Bullish
August is here and the month doesn’t have an upward seasonal bias. Overall, it is one of the more challenging months of the year, coming in at 0% on average, but weaker lately. The first day of August is also the single worst first day of the month in the calendar. However (isn’t there always?), because of how well July closed, the first week of August is a seasonally strong period. In other words, buy weakness to begin the month […]
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Date: August 2, 2023
