Date: July 11, 2012

Markets Pricing in Weak Earnings

Earlier this week, I did an interview with Fox Business about the possible increase in taxes when the Bush/Obama tax cuts expire in December.  Later in the segment, we discussed earnings season, which began this week with Alcoa, and how just one quarter off record earnings, investors are becoming so pessimistic.

While it certainly feels like a negative year in the markets, the major indices remain in the black for 2012.  In fact, the year is very closely following the typical presidential election year with a Q1 rally, springtime low and summer rally.  If this continues to hold, we should see a fall swoon to a bottom before the election and then robust year-end rally.

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Paul Schatz, President, Heritage Capital