Sentiment Percolating
Starting in the middle of November 2019, stock market sentiment went from bullish to giddy and then greedy before all was said and done. It had done that before in early 2017, 2018, mid-2011 and clearly during the Dotcom Bubble in 1999 and 2000. Sentiment alone is not a reason for markets to turn although we usually see that ingredient at extremes. Sentiment is also not a perfect timing tool. Remember the old adage that markets can stay irrational longer […]
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Date: June 1, 2020
Refuting the Bears
Bears will point to overly bullish sentiment readings and anemic volume as reasons to be wary of “The Big One” or bull market ending. They are absolutely correct regarding the sentiment surveys, but this story has been seen before. And sentiment is almost always much frothier than the high positive readings of today. Sometimes, a correction unfolds while other times the market enters a trading range. And in outlier cases, every once in a long while, stocks begin to melt […]
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Date: June 13, 2014
Early Equals Wrong
The bull market of 2009-2014 has to be one of the most disavowed, unloved bull markets of all time. Each and every time it sees even routine weakness, bears come out of the woodwork with calls of 1929, 1987 and 2007 all over again. And then stocks stop declining and continue on their merry way higher. This is exactly how long-term bull markets survive, thrive and work higher. I can’t tell you how many very smart (and some not so […]
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Date: June 11, 2014
