Menu

Tag: expert forecasts

Can You Trust the Experts?

One story related by Peter L. Bernstein in “Against the Gods: the remarkable story of risk” was the experience of Kenneth Joseph Arrow, an American economist and joint winner of the 1972 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics. Some officers had been assigned the task of forecasting weather a month ahead, but Arrow and his statisticians found that their long-range forecasts were no better than numbers pulled out of a hat. The forecasters agreed and asked their superiors to be relieved […]   Read More