Dotcom Bubble Again?
On Wednesday I wrote about the meme stocks being back in Vogue with epic volume. I know. I know. Why should we care about a few stocks that trade like Dotcom stocks from yesteryear? In a vacuum it doesn’t really matter. However, we don’t live nor invest in a vacuum. Meme stocks like Gamestop, AMC and Blackberry are indicators of overall market sentiment. All three companies have poor fundamentals which is why many professional investors have positioned against those stocks, […]
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Date: May 17, 2024
All-Time Highs Are Here Again – Meme Shorts Get Punched
It seems like a lot has happened this week and it’s only Wednesday morning. On Tuesday and Wednesday we got inflation reports from the producers as well as the consumers. One was warmer than expected while the other was a touch cooler. Still, although April looked a tiny bit better, year over year inflation remained well above 3% and nowhere near the Fed’s 2% target. Recall that I have been saying that 3% is the new 2% and until we […]
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Date: May 15, 2024
Stocks Overbought
I hope everyone had a nice Mother’s Day. With the kids home, my mom back from the Sunshine State and my in-laws just down the street, it was great to have everyone over and also celebrate my brother’s double nickel (55) birthday a few days early. I had my first hands on experience with AI as I listed a brand new Taylor Made driver for sale on eBay. After I entered all the specs, it asked me if I wanted […]
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Date: May 13, 2024
Tactical Social Security Planning for High Net-Worth Individuals
As you approach retirement, understanding the impact of Social Security becomes a significant piece of an already complex puzzle known as retirement planning. For affluent individuals, the challenge isn’t just about choosing when to start benefits but also knowing how those choices impact your taxes and retirement income. You might be wondering: When is the best time to claim benefits? How will this affect my taxable income? Should my spouse and I coordinate our claims? Are there tactical planning tips […]
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Date: May 13, 2024
The Youts! What’s a Yout? – AI & The Utes
The bulls have had quite a run, haven’t they? My thesis for a Q1 peak came to fruition. My thesis for a Q2 low came to fruition. I think my thesis for all-time highs in Q3 will come to fruition, but that may be happily earlier than I expected as the Dow Industrials, S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 are just one big day away. Longtime readers know I hate to follow the masses as they are usually but not always […]
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Date: May 10, 2024
Do The Homework – Selling In May Is For The Lazy
Before May gets away from us I wanted to comment on the media’s obsession with the “Sell in May and Go Away” calendar investing advice that makes its round annually. First, like many of these, they were data mined and really only worked until they were discovered and published. Second, selling in May works sometimes, in some years. Other times, June is a better month. In election years with the incumbent running, it doesn’t work at all. Overall since 1950, […]
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Date: May 8, 2024
Goldilocks Is In The House – And The Banks Are Loving It
Boy is it great to be home! Three trips piled into one long 8 days on the road. Nothing better than walking off the plane at midnight and being greeted by this sign in Hartford. A new week begins after last week ended with a bang. If Apple’s earnings and epic share buyback weren’t enough, the jobs report on Friday gave a Goldilocks gift of not too hot and not too cold. 175,000 new jobs were created versus the 240,000 […]
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Date: May 6, 2024
Individual Investors Just Don’t Like Feeding The Ducks
What a crazy volatile Fed afternoon on Wednesday. Massive rally and then huge decline as you can see below. My comment about buying weakness and selling strength was valid. On Thursday, markets were strongly higher and I heard pundits crying about today’s employment report being leaked. Those conspiracy theorists never cease to amaze me. When the president and Fed chair get caught off guard by an economic report two days hence, you know that any talk about leaks is nonsense. […]
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Date: May 3, 2024
***Special Fed Update – “Our Progress Has Stalled” – “Oops I Did It Again”***
This will be a quick Fed update as I am traveling and lost two hours this morning when my Uber ended up at a mobile home park rather than at the airport. The stock market model for the day is plus or minus 0.50% and then a volatile rally after 2pm. Given the weakness this week, the model is reinforced and has a stronger likelihood of success. It is also the first day of the month coming on the heels […]
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Date: May 1, 2024
Did Friday’s Big Rally Change Anything?
What a nice day for the bulls on Friday. In the morning blog, I discussed the possibility of the Q2 bottom being in versus just a better bounce and then final low in May. Regardless of the scenario, the plan was to position for higher prices and then manage risk. It didn’t take the S&P 500 nor NASDAQ 100 long to exceed last week’s peak. It happened faster than I thought. While it’s not clear sailing from here, there should […]
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Date: April 29, 2024
Retirement Strategy: Winning with a Defensive Investment Plan
Market fluctuations can often make you feel like you’re at the mercy of Wall Street, but it doesn’t have to be that way. Unless you have a crystal ball (mine broke 50 years ago), you can’t accurately predict every little market swing (for sure, Wall Street cannot) during periods of market volatility. You should be reminding yourself to focus on “controlling the controllables.” In other words, concentrate on aspects of your wealth you can manage, like making smart, data-driven decisions […]
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Date: April 29, 2024
Was That It?
Stocks staged another wicked reversal on Thursday after opening sharply lower on Facebook’s poor earnings report as well as Q1 GDP coming in much lighter than expected with still sticky inflation. More than whispers of 1970s style stagflation are making the rounds. Recall that stagflation is stubbornly high inflation with essentially no economic growth. It puts the Fed in a box as they can’t cut rates to spur on the economy and it’s tough to hike too much for fear […]
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Date: April 26, 2024
The Bounce Arrived On Schedule – Now What?
The stock market bounced pretty much on schedule and looks higher this morning. I suspect the initial rally may pause in here and some pruning could be in the cards. While it’s not my preferred scenario, I guess it’s possible that stocks bottomed already, but I still think the absolute low lies ahead next month, even if it’s just at marginally lower levels. Some very high profile earnings are coming out this week with Tesla reporting some pretty awful news […]
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Date: April 24, 2024
Weak Indices Masking Some Underlying Strength
Friday was another down day on the ugly side with the S&P 500 down 1% and the NASDAQ 100 was down 2%. However, the Russell 2000 was up and there were 1000 more stocks going up than down on the NYSE. For a change, the generals were weak, but the troops were strong. Keep that tidbit under your hat and don’t toss it aside. The new week starts with all of the major stock market indices oversold on a short-term […]
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Date: April 22, 2024
Two Enemies Of The Stock Market
It has been a heavy week in the stock market, especially in the NASDAQ 100. Every early rally has been met with selling and I have found very few things that are appealing enough to buy. On the flip side, because there hasn’t been any intervening rallies, not many things have looked appealing enough to sell. Below is a culprit, long-term interest rates. I will say this and be crystal clear. The bulls absolutely do not want to see the […]
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Date: April 19, 2024
Pullback Proceeding On Schedule – Time Is Needed
Monday saw the largest down day since the stock market peaked last month. There was widespread selling with 90% of the volume in stocks going down versus up. Below is a chart of the S&P 500 with the 90% volume below. Over the past 6 months, we have seen two instances like this with stocks bouncing and then pulling back before heading to new highs again. Further supporting my thesis is the chart below. At the recent peak there were […]
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Date: April 17, 2024
Seasonally Positive Tailwind Against Middle East Escalation
Happy tax day (said with sarcasm)! The stock market has been seasonally strong on tax day as well as the day after. First, the middle of the month typically sees inflows from 401K and other retirement plans. Add on top of that the billions in last minute IRA contributions and you have a nice tailwind for two days. I think the best way to play that is to buy weakness. If stocks up higher and continue to run, I would […]
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Date: April 15, 2024
The Price of Loyalty: When to Rethink Your Financial Advisor
Loyalty is a valued trait in many aspects of life, but an unquestioned allegiance to particular financial advisors may be a costly mistake. Why? This advisor will influence or control your financial decisions that can impact when and how you live during retirement. It is important to make the right decisions. It can also be very costly if you select the wrong financial advisor. Consider this: The most expensive commodity on earth is bad financial advice. We meet with people […]
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Date: April 15, 2024
Stock Market Pullback Proceeding on Schedule – Gold, Apple & Nvidia
Since the March 27th peak, we have seen a few mild pullbacks in the major stock market indices. That March high although late in the quarter is precisely what our work had been suggesting since the year began. As usual, they didn’t make it easy. I remain of the opinion that it was not a peak of significance. Rather, the market would embark on a one to two month decline that would be less than 10% and bottom by Memorial […]
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Date: April 12, 2024
All Eyes on CPI But Does It Matter?
With the Consumer Price Index due out at 8:30am, that is almost guaranteed to be the talk of the day. As I have been mentioning all year, my thesis is that inflation remains stubbornly elevated with 3% being the new 2%. I have been writing about inflation bottoming and the last few months have certainly proven that. I don’t have strong conviction about this one single number. When I look at the yield on the 10-Year Treasury, it broke out […]
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Date: April 10, 2024
