Fed Meeting Ending – No Fireworks Expected

The Federal Reserve concludes its two-day meeting today. The stock market model is for plus or minus 0.50% until 2pm and then a rally. There are several historical trends which point to higher prices today based on stocks not being at new highs as well as market action so far this week that was not strong. If stocks rally today, especially after the 2pm announcement and Powell’s tea and crumpets with the press, there may a trend calling for mildly […]   Read More
Date: June 16, 2021

Froth & Greed Are Back

Greetings from 38,000 feet as my JetBlue flight to Florida bumps along down the east coast. The markets begin the new week on continued solid footing over the intermediate-term. All market foundations appear to be solid which indicate that there should not be any major changes in trend. However, that doesn’t preclude any market, especially stocks, from seeing modest to moderate weakness over the short-term. Right now, the vast majority of stocks on the NYSE are above their long-term and […]   Read More
Date: June 14, 2021

Inflation Soaring – Bonds Yields Falling – HMMMMM…

As you know, inflation soared in May coming in at the highest level, 5%,  since August 2008. The core rate which removes food and energy because they are so volatile was 3.8% which is the highest since 1992. On the surface that is really hot and very worrisome. But my readers already knew this was coming as I began discussing it 10 months ago. Some of our portfolios introduced commodities in the middle of last year while others added my […]   Read More
Date: June 11, 2021

I Was Wrong – We Have a Problem

I was wrong. Last week, I left you with my opinion that April’s well below expected employment report was just an anomaly or aberration. And that a big upward revision was coming along with a strong May report. Well folks, May was weaker by more than 100,000 new jobs. Thankfully, the unemployment rate came in as expected. Two months is now a nascent trend and there is something structurally wrong with the economy. You know my trifecta. Vaccines + Massive […]   Read More
Date: June 8, 2021

5 Common Concerns Investors Have Today

As COVID-19 continues to recede, investors must re-adapt to an investment environment less distorted by the economic effects of the pandemic. Add to this new environment some of the same concerns that existed pre-pandemic, and there’s a lot of fear and confusion about investing today and in the future. To help investors navigate this interesting time, I publish regular articles to the Heritage Capital blog and speak to national and local media outlets. At Heritage Capital, we also created a […]   Read More
Date: June 8, 2021

***Q1 Client Update***

Many people like to read my very brief quarterly client update which I select excerpts. If you’re one of them, please read on. If not, feel free to delete now. Always happy to hear comments and questions. Although the light at the end of the proverbial tunnel has been shining since late last year, it certainly got brighter in Q1 of 2021 as more and more Americans got vaccinated and the economy continued to reopen. That’s where I am going […]   Read More
Date: June 8, 2021

May Employment Report Is Unusually Important

I usually poke fun at the media who say things like,”this is the most important Fed meeting of all-time”. That’s just a ridiculous comment. However, I will say that the May employment due out at 8:30am on Friday is an unusually important one. Recall that last month, Wall Street was expecting more than a million new jobs and the unemployment rate well below 6%. The economy only created 266,000 new jobs with a 6.1% unemployment rate. Something looked terribly wrong. […]   Read More
Date: June 3, 2021

June is Here – Not the Greatest Month

Over the weekend I published a video that everyone should have received discussing what keeps me up at night. In other words, the single biggest threat to U.S. economic dominance. Agree or disagree, it’s worth beginning the discussion after an unfathomable $6 trillion dollar budget was proposed by the Biden Administration. For frame of reference, the U.S. government doesn’t even receive $4 trillion in total revenue, yet the administration wants to spend $6 trillion on the budget alone. And that […]   Read More
Date: June 2, 2021

Stocks A Bit Tired But Don’t Get Fooled Too Early

The stock market has certainly transitioned to what was a powerful rally into a narrow trading range. That’s nothing new. Since mid-April the major stock market indices have basically gone nowhere. That’s not bad thing as they digest massive gains since early March. Tuesday was interesting day in the very short-term as stocks began to look a little tired. I don’t think it’s that big of a deal. I would look to become more positive on a 1-3 day mild […]   Read More
Date: May 26, 2021

Tech Back, Market Rangebound

Greetings from 38,000 feet where my wife and I are returning from a long weekend in CA for a wedding and some work. While the weather was cooler than normal, we still had golden sunshine every day and the sun got the best of me even though I wore sunblock 50. It was good to get away, but I always look forward to going home to my kids, my pets and my bed. The markets look to be picking up […]   Read More
Date: May 24, 2021

They Don’t Make It Easy

The NASDAQ 100 came roaring back to life on Thursday. If you follow me on Twitter you saw that I tweeted about starting to see embryonic signs of this developing in real time on Wednesday. We started wading back into tech at that point, but I do not sense this is a multi-month opportunity just yet. In the short-term I can say that stocks revisited their low points from a week ago and they are trying to build a a […]   Read More
Date: May 21, 2021

Is This The Big One? I am Coming Elizabeth!

When I left off, I opined that the pullback could be over and new highs would be up next. The only thing that bothered me was how stocks closed last Wednesday which would have been the low. After a few days of rally, the bears came back to work on Tuesday and Wednesday morning looks to be weak, at least early on. Ideally, I would like to see last Wednesday’s low prices exceeded and then have the bulls step up. […]   Read More
Date: May 19, 2021

What Have I Done? 5 Retirement Decisions that are Permanent

It’s unfortunate, but as a financial advisor in New Haven County, I often talk to retirees after they’ve made a mistake with their retirement plans. Even more unfortunate, certain decisions cannot be undone. While there’s usually an opportunity to make up for a bad decision, it can be expensive both in time and money. It’s my personal goal to try to reach as many pre-retirees before these mistakes are made. Proper research and the help of a qualified financial advisor […]   Read More
Date: May 17, 2021

Pullback Over – All Time Highs Up Next

Sorry I missed the Wednesday update folks. It has been crazy busy with client updates, onboarding new clients and speeding to watch the kids’ baseball and softball after market close. Oh yeah. And the markets have been giving us so many opportunities of late. I am also about to start my travels again, so I apologize in advance for what may be an irregular publishing schedule for some time. As most of you know, however, I spend all my time […]   Read More
Date: May 14, 2021

Calendar Quiets – NASDAQ 100 Still Under Pressure

Last week at this time, the market was enjoying one the strongest seasonal days of the year in the first day of May. The ensuing four days of mild weakness looked good until Thursday and Friday when the bulls decided they had enough. The new week begins with some very, very mild seasonal weakness on the calendar. Nothing that will weigh too heavily. After that the seasonal trends are quiet. Looking at the major indices, we have the Dow Industrials […]   Read More
Date: May 10, 2021

Mild Pullback Continues

The first trading day of May lived up to its billing as an up day. Additionally, the subsequent week is following history as a patch of seasonal weakness. It’s nice when the market follows history so well. For the past week, I have written several times about the stock market being tired and overdue for a pullback. That mild bout of weakness is here, but its magnitude depends on which index you view. The Dow Industrials have been the strongest […]   Read More
Date: May 6, 2021

#1 Question Asked Since the Pandemic: Am I Invested Correctly Post-COVID-19?

Unfortunately, the COVID-19 pandemic caused many investors to alter their portfolios, often not to their long-term benefit. It’s certainly understandable to have wanted to do something in response to this unprecedented catastrophe. The problem is, as is often the case, that emotional responses often lead into unwise financial moves that must be corrected before they do permanent harm. This is especially true when it comes to retirement planning for high net worth individuals, because the more you’re investing, the more […]   Read More
Date: May 4, 2021

LOTS of Seasonal Factors of Today & Month

Today is the first trading day of May. I wish someone told Mother Nature that as I had on long underwear and two fleece layers at my son’s baseball games on Saturday. Yet on Sunday, I had shorts and a tee shirt on as we did yard work all afternoon. Spring in New England. Stocks did not close April well, but they still finished sharply higher for the month. April was definitely a fun month all around with tech leading […]   Read More
Date: May 3, 2021

Stop Touting the News

I can’t keep track of how many times I have said, it’s not what the news is, but rather, how stocks react. If there is one adage that has served me incredibly well in my 32 years in the business, it’s that one. Yet people continue to do the “but, but, but”. The market is usually right. Those who make it a methodology to fight it often end up in failure. There has been a dizzying number of Q1 earnings […]   Read More
Date: April 30, 2021

Fed Day is Here and I am Not Celebrating

It’s Fed day and these meetings should all take on some significance going forward as Powell et al should begin to hint at less accommodation. However, the Fed learned their lesson in 2013 with the Taper Tantrum and will make sure the runway is long and clear. Although I have so been enjoying the fruits of their labor since last April and I assume clients and investors have as well, if I sat in Jay Powell’s seat, I would already […]   Read More
Date: April 28, 2021