***SPECIAL Fed Update – Cost of Living Index at All-Time High – Dow to 50,000***
Today is FOMC statement day. The model for the S&P 500 is plus or minus 0.50% until 2pm and then volatility with a rally. There are two problems with the model today. First, stocks have rallied smartly into the meeting which pulled forward the anticipated strength. Second, this morning’s CPI release came a tad cooler than expected although the cost of living index scored yet another all-time high. Pre-market futures looks higher by more than 1%. The model says to […]
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Date: June 12, 2024
Comparing Nvidia to Dotcom Bubble, Election Impact & Reading The Fed
Comparing Nvidia to Dotcom Bubble, Election Impact & Reading The Fed On Friday we bought levered S&P 500. We sold EMB.
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Date: June 10, 2024
Analogs To The Dotcom Bubble
This is going to be a quick blog as I am traveling. I have seen some social media posts and heard some chatter from folks comparing today’s Nvidia-led market to that of the Dotcom Bubble. The most recent Chicken Little chart is below which shows the vast majority of stocks underperforming the S&P 500 index, similar to 1998-1999. Keep in mind during the Dotcom Bubble, this condition last more than two years. Additionally, market participation is worlds better today than […]
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Date: June 6, 2024
Now It’s a Slowdown
Inflation, inflation, inflation. Jobs, jobs, jobs. That’s all we’ve heard all year. Yet, this week the narrative seems to have changed to a slowdown. Is it the elusive “soft landing” so many positioned for in 2024? Is it recession? For now, it seems like just chatter and drivel without hard data backing it up. Let’s take a look at the 10-Year below to see what the market is fussing about on the far right of the chart. Yields have come […]
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Date: June 5, 2024
May Certainly Ended With a Bang
I had my 40th high school reunion on Saturday. Since reunions started at the 5 year mark, the only one I have missed was my 35th when I had that tiny little mishap with that 50 foot silver maple and those 35 broken bones. It was so much fun to see old classmates and friends whom I hasn’t seen in years. Thankfully, Facebook lets many of us stay in touch. Very uncharacteristically for me, in my excitement to catch and […]
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Date: June 3, 2024
How Quickly Things Change
On May 22nd after the close, Nvidia reported blow out earnings and announced a 10:1 stock split. I said the stock should exceed $1000 in after hours trading and it did, but that’s not relevant. What was super important about the next day was that while Nvidia surged higher, the rest of the market gapped and crapped, meaning the stock market shot up at the open and then sold off the rest of the day to close at or near […]
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Date: May 30, 2024
Transports Lagging Badly Since 2021 – But Does It Matter?
Friday saw a new closing high in the NASDAQ 100 which was unaccompanied by any of the other major indices. That index is below. It really doesn’t see clear skies until it closes above last Thursday’s nasty reversal day. The S&P 500 and Russell 2000, both below, obviously look weaker, but the former can be repaired rather easily. The latter not so much. What I have really wanted to discuss was the Dow Transportation Index which has been super weak […]
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Date: May 28, 2024
Not Even Nvidia Could Prevent The Plunge – Time To Prune
As highly anticipated as Nvidia’s earnings were and the huge reaction, Thursday was an even more consequential day in the stock market. First, as I wrote about on Wednesday, I fully expected Nvidia to blow out earnings and the stock to soar above $1000 in the after hours trading on Wednesday. I don’t think there was any great stretch there or new revelation. The biggest test would be after the open to see what the stock did. For a while […]
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Date: May 24, 2024
Nvidia – Poised To Hit $1000+ After Hours
Given that Nvidia has become THE most important stock on earth, I expect the media to be completely obsessed about it all day as the company reports Q1 earnings after the closing bell today. It is now one of the most over-owned stocks on earth, present company included, with very few detractors except for those based on valuation and price. I have written about pruning the stock a number of times, most recently in March, as it looked like a […]
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Date: May 22, 2024
Avoid These 4 Retirement Planning Mistakes When Funding College
Paying for your child’s (or grandchildren’s) college expenses can significantly strain any family’s finances. With rising tuition fees and escalating living expenses, the financial burden of college education is becoming increasingly challenging to manage. As a high-net-worth individual, the dilemma is balancing the desire to provide a quality education for your family along with having a comfortable retirement. Failing to strike the proper balance can easily lead to higher debt, reduced savings, postponed retirement, or a dramatic reduction in your […]
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Date: May 20, 2024
Low Volatility Is Bullish – Ignore The Lazy
This past Friday was your typical options expiration which used to be a somewhat important affair. Over the years, it has almost become a non-event with all the more frequent options being traded weekly and now daily. A tried and true trend about strength into last Friday and weakness the following week kicks off today. I don’t think it’s anything big to the downside, just maybe a modest pullback. As I thought about that old study I just mentioned, I […]
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Date: May 20, 2024
Dotcom Bubble Again?
On Wednesday I wrote about the meme stocks being back in Vogue with epic volume. I know. I know. Why should we care about a few stocks that trade like Dotcom stocks from yesteryear? In a vacuum it doesn’t really matter. However, we don’t live nor invest in a vacuum. Meme stocks like Gamestop, AMC and Blackberry are indicators of overall market sentiment. All three companies have poor fundamentals which is why many professional investors have positioned against those stocks, […]
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Date: May 17, 2024
All-Time Highs Are Here Again – Meme Shorts Get Punched
It seems like a lot has happened this week and it’s only Wednesday morning. On Tuesday and Wednesday we got inflation reports from the producers as well as the consumers. One was warmer than expected while the other was a touch cooler. Still, although April looked a tiny bit better, year over year inflation remained well above 3% and nowhere near the Fed’s 2% target. Recall that I have been saying that 3% is the new 2% and until we […]
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Date: May 15, 2024
Stocks Overbought
I hope everyone had a nice Mother’s Day. With the kids home, my mom back from the Sunshine State and my in-laws just down the street, it was great to have everyone over and also celebrate my brother’s double nickel (55) birthday a few days early. I had my first hands on experience with AI as I listed a brand new Taylor Made driver for sale on eBay. After I entered all the specs, it asked me if I wanted […]
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Date: May 13, 2024
Tactical Social Security Planning for High Net-Worth Individuals
As you approach retirement, understanding the impact of Social Security becomes a significant piece of an already complex puzzle known as retirement planning. For affluent individuals, the challenge isn’t just about choosing when to start benefits but also knowing how those choices impact your taxes and retirement income. You might be wondering: When is the best time to claim benefits? How will this affect my taxable income? Should my spouse and I coordinate our claims? Are there tactical planning tips […]
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Date: May 13, 2024
The Youts! What’s a Yout? – AI & The Utes
The bulls have had quite a run, haven’t they? My thesis for a Q1 peak came to fruition. My thesis for a Q2 low came to fruition. I think my thesis for all-time highs in Q3 will come to fruition, but that may be happily earlier than I expected as the Dow Industrials, S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 are just one big day away. Longtime readers know I hate to follow the masses as they are usually but not always […]
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Date: May 10, 2024
Do The Homework – Selling In May Is For The Lazy
Before May gets away from us I wanted to comment on the media’s obsession with the “Sell in May and Go Away” calendar investing advice that makes its round annually. First, like many of these, they were data mined and really only worked until they were discovered and published. Second, selling in May works sometimes, in some years. Other times, June is a better month. In election years with the incumbent running, it doesn’t work at all. Overall since 1950, […]
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Date: May 8, 2024
Goldilocks Is In The House – And The Banks Are Loving It
Boy is it great to be home! Three trips piled into one long 8 days on the road. Nothing better than walking off the plane at midnight and being greeted by this sign in Hartford. A new week begins after last week ended with a bang. If Apple’s earnings and epic share buyback weren’t enough, the jobs report on Friday gave a Goldilocks gift of not too hot and not too cold. 175,000 new jobs were created versus the 240,000 […]
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Date: May 6, 2024
Individual Investors Just Don’t Like Feeding The Ducks
What a crazy volatile Fed afternoon on Wednesday. Massive rally and then huge decline as you can see below. My comment about buying weakness and selling strength was valid. On Thursday, markets were strongly higher and I heard pundits crying about today’s employment report being leaked. Those conspiracy theorists never cease to amaze me. When the president and Fed chair get caught off guard by an economic report two days hence, you know that any talk about leaks is nonsense. […]
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Date: May 3, 2024
***Special Fed Update – “Our Progress Has Stalled” – “Oops I Did It Again”***
This will be a quick Fed update as I am traveling and lost two hours this morning when my Uber ended up at a mobile home park rather than at the airport. The stock market model for the day is plus or minus 0.50% and then a volatile rally after 2pm. Given the weakness this week, the model is reinforced and has a stronger likelihood of success. It is also the first day of the month coming on the heels […]
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Date: May 1, 2024
