Better To Be Lucky Than Good
Today is options expiration where something like $2 trillion in notional value goes away. I do not think that influences the markets much as professionals have already done most of their work this week. The bears have clearly won the first four days of the week. It’s interesting that they thwarted the bulls just shy of the 30,300 level I have referenced for months. And by the way, this is not a hard number. 30,299 isn’t a bad number while […]
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Date: August 21, 2026
Dow Still OK, Q3 Correction Still Preferred, Stock Guys Become Bond Experts
Let’s start by answering some questions. We still own DIA which we recently bought for a move to new highs. Any further weakness and we will exit and move on. It is a laggard play and is supposed to see some attention this month. I wrote about SpaceX the other day and have the selling lens on just looking for a spot or two after having bought it two or three times during the July and August plunge. And no, […]
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Date: August 19, 2026
Bull Markets Do Not End This Way
It’s good to be in the office all week after taking the little guy to college in Florida part of last week. He has been excited to start for months. And thankfully, Ryan is home for a few weeks so we won’t really be empty nesters until September. Then I can be depressed although Katie said she would continue to pop in to raise the noise level in the house. When I post comments about my thesis, I get emails […]
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Date: August 17, 2026
Corporate America Rocking, Opp In The Dow & SpaceX Update
With almost six weeks of earnings behind us, it’s important to note that more than 75% of companies beat Wall Street estimates and 15% of companies raised forward guidance. This says that corporate America is very, very strong. A skeptical eye could almost say, too strong, meaning an earnings growth peak. I am not in that camp, at least not yet. There should be more to come. Both pieces of inflation data came in as expected or a little bit […]
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Date: August 14, 2026
Upside Resolution As Jobs Market Weakness Helps Stocks & Gold
Today we have July inflation data out with the CPI which usually means a larger up or down opening. Pre-market is showing a decent bounce from this week’s pause. Given the strong move last week and rest this week, history suggests an upside resolution to new August highs. That is just a very short-term play. While price remains strong, the intermediate-term has not resolved itself and the challenges I continue to write about exist, even as many of our models […]
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Date: August 12, 2026
The Strongest Index Against A Negative Backdrop
Friday saw another big day for the bulls after a little pause following a powerful four days. The least talked about index is below, the S&P 400, which has mid-sized companies. This is now the strongest index and just ahead of the Russell 2000. I spent a lot of time over the weekend running and re-running our non-leveraged, non-aggressive models to see whether the strength over the last week qualifies as a thrust for continuation straight into 2027. I did […]
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Date: August 10, 2026
Why CT High-Net-Worth Investors Switch to Active Risk Management During Market Corrections
Market corrections are an unavoidable part of investing, but how you respond to them can have lasting consequences. Why do high-net-worth individuals often move beyond passive investing in favor of active risk management? Because they’re seeking to reduce portfolio exposure when market conditions deteriorate. Rather than remaining fully invested through every downturn, active managers like Heritage Capital LLC use quantitative indicators to evaluate changing market conditions, adjust equity exposure, raise cash when appropriate, and focus on preserving capital until conditions […]
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Date: August 7, 2026
Bulls Asserting Themselves, But…
When we left off on Wednesday, the stock market had powered ahead for four straight days, but I was not convinced that the bottom was in. And I am still not. It was a really fun run that we thoroughly enjoyed with all indices going to new highs except for the NASDAQ 100 below. Of course, the index may play catch up in the coming weeks. Some of our non-leveraged, non-aggressive models have not signaled a new lower risk regime […]
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Date: August 7, 2026
***Q2 Client Update***
Q2 2026 saw lots of fireworks, at least from a financial market perspective. That’s because Q1 closed one day removed from the lowest price levels of the year, so far. The stock market was very oversold and unloved as the new quarter began as hostilities in Iran were in full swing. When all was said and done, the major stock market indices saw double-digit gains with mega cap technology even stronger and semiconductors partying like it was 1999 all over […]
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Date: August 6, 2026
Stocks Soar – Am I Wrong?
It has been one strong bounce for the most beaten down index below, the NASDAQ 100. Four straight big days for the bulls. While it may be a day or two early to use the word “thrust” off that low, there is no denying the rally. I thought 29,000 would be a formidable area for the bears to make a stand. They didn’t even come out to play. From a thesis point of view, I will watch the data over […]
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Date: August 5, 2026
August Has Poor History, GDP Better Underneath & Bottom Coming
I hope everyone had a nice weekend. I had lots of fun playing mixed couples golf on Friday evening and Saturday afternoon. My wife’s the best. A beginner golfer who hates any competition, she hit some great shots through 8 eight holes. After teeing off number 9 of 9 holes, she said, “I’m done. I want a drink”. With that three of us finished the hole and she walked up to order drinks. And we still came in second. On […]
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Date: August 3, 2026
Warsh Sets Record For Worst Two Days As Correction Lives On
Oh boy. What a two days it has been! Newly minted FOMC Chair Kevin Warsh now owns the dubious distinction as having the worst FOMC day stock market returns for the first two meeting. Both days saw 1%+ declines in the S&P 500. As expected, at least by me and many others, no action was taken by the Fed. I just didn’t understand those expecting or calling for a rate hike. Since the previous no action meeting, inflation cooled as […]
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Date: July 31, 2026
***Special Fed Update – No Rate Change – Am I Wrong?***
The stock market model for the day is plus or minus 0.50% until 2pm and then a rally. This is not as high a conviction play as six weeks ago when the rally failed to materialize. FYI, Fed models are not opinions as some have suggested. I am not right or wrong. The models are based on data that we gather, model and analyze on a non-emotional basis. Today is FOMC Chair Warsh’s second meeting. He dropped a number of […]
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Date: July 29, 2026
Bear Trap? NASDAQ 100 Achieves First Downside Target – Bottom Not In But Participation Good
Despite Friday’s down day, more stocks went up than down, a small positive for the battered bulls. The NASDAQ 100 met its first downside target of breaching the June low. Given that pre-market trading shows a big bounce, the market has trapped the bears, at least for now. Let’s see where things stand by the end of the day. The bulls need to close the day in the upper 25% of today’s price range. That will be a tall task […]
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Date: July 27, 2026
Bears In Control – More Downside To Come With Pockets Of Strength
The bears had their way on Thursday. It was an ugly day, but not across the board with more than a net of 1200 stocks going down on the day. Once again, the Russell small caps outperformed. Industrials, healthcare, energy and utilities bucked the trend. Don’t discount the importance of small caps outperforming on the upside and downside. The bull market ain’t over folks. I am sharing this same chart of the NASDAQ 100 again. It should answer the same […]
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Date: July 24, 2026
Tuesday’s Rally Unimpressive – Yields Up – Gold Opp
The stock market had a very good rally on Tuesday, but there were only 235 more stocks going up than down. That shows some underlying weakness and a return to the narrow market. With the back of the momentum machine broken, this type of behavior is more supportive of my pullback thesis than a big run above the old highs. The NASDAQ 100 is below. It is bouncing because it pulled back to the June low. On the next trip […]
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Date: July 22, 2026
More Downside Coming But Bull Market Is Not Over
I think of myself as a good listener. I am very keen to what people say and how they react. Earlier this year, friends were bragging about the gold/silver trade and quoting their YTD performance and how large their allocations were to the sector. Que Mr. Market and his punishment. Those folks have quieted down just a tad. Lately, I have been hearing from the debt doom and gloom crowd. One person even said that another Great Depression is close […]
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Date: July 20, 2026
Unwinding The Parabolic Advances
So many things I find interesting about questions from readers. Among my favorites are either asking about positions we do not own or telling me that I should have owned something. It was only earlier this year when folks from all walks of life gave me strong advice on buying silver. Both clusters were right before the collapses. I have long written that our Unloved Gems strategy missed the big semiconductor trade, having only owned Intel and Nvidia. Over the […]
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Date: July 17, 2026
Cooler Inflation Data Is Something To Celebrate But Not For Naysayers
On Tuesday and Wednesday the government released June inflation data for the CPI and PPI. I have written that our model indicated cooler inflation numbers, just as it had indicated warmer data during spring. Well folks, inflation fell much more than expected and revised data from May was cooler. Once again on social media, economic data has become political. So before I get one of those conspiracy theorist replies, I will say it again. I 100% trust the data. I […]
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Date: July 15, 2026
S&P 500 Poised For ATHs – Permas Are Just Plain Wrong
Last week’s long-term bearish post certainly generated emails and comments. Even though I couched my comments with my current non-bear market forecast, folks still only read select words and hammered me on how low the market is going now. I remain of the opinion that the worst case right now is 6-11% down and then all-time highs. The Fed will pivot by year-end to the dovish camp. Inflation is decelerating. The S&P 500 is below. Guess what folks? I think […]
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Date: July 13, 2026
