Don’t Marry Stocks – You Will End in Divorce

As has been the theme all quarter we continue to prune and plant, reducing exposure in those areas that have essentially melted up and adding exposure in areas that have not. In other words, you could say that we have cut back on those handful of super sexy stocks and sectors and rebalanced into the rest of the market. Again, that is how you successfully manage portfolios for the long-term. Otherwise, your portfolio ends up severely overweighted in a small […]   Read More
Date: March 6, 2024

Small Caps Beat The Bears – NYCB Did Not

The markets sure have been resilient. In the strongest of uptrends which this clearly is, all the bears get are 1-3 day pullbacks where they all wonder, “is this it, the top?” Last week, the S&P 500 had a very mild early week pullback along with the NASDAQ 100. By weeks end, they were at fresh all-time highs. At the same time the two aforementioned indices were slightly declining, the Russell 2000 index of small companies was going up. You […]   Read More
Date: March 4, 2024

Inflation Versus High Prices

Happy Friday! Rather than a written blog today, I did a video on the most asked question of late regarding inflation versus high prices. Weekend is here and as far as the eye can see, Mother Nature is back to her unkind ways in New England. Cold, thaw, rain, warm, rinse and repeat. Of course, my buddies at Kirkwood are preparing for 120-150 inches of snow over the next 5 days. Now that is insane! On Wednesday we bought levered […]   Read More
Date: March 1, 2024

Complacency Rises – People Getting Giddy, Cocky & Greedy

The markets sure have gone quiet or so it seems. Let’s take a look at the Volatility Index (VIX) below. While stocks have marched steadily higher since the October bottom, the VIX tells a slightly different story as it fell into December and then mildly rallied since. I would have expected the VIX to be below 12. Does that matter? Not really, especially not in the short-term. It is just telling us that the options trades are expecting a bit […]   Read More
Date: February 28, 2024

Ducks Are Quacking – Sexy & Exciting Out, Boring & Stodgy In

The ducks were quacking last week, but especially on Thursday and Friday. For newer readers, that means investors were hungry for stocks. Those same people ridiculed and scorned me in Q4 2022 when I pounded the table about a new bull market launching. They laughed at my 2023 forecast labeled “The Year of the Bull”. Today, they can’t buy enough stocks. They want Nvidia and Super Micro and Microsoft. Well, folks, they can have them. Over the past week we […]   Read More
Date: February 26, 2024

Will Your Nest Egg Survive Retirement? Answers For Your Top Concerns!

Back in the day, it was standard practice to work until 65 and, in theory, be relegated to a rocking chair or recliner for the remainder of your years. The good news is that retirement today differs significantly from what it used to be for our parents and grandparents. In modern times, retirement takes on a whole new meaning as people are much more healthy and active and want to experience more of what life offers once they stop working […]   Read More
Date: February 26, 2024

Nvidia Delivers (Sell) – Weird Behavior Follows – Pay Attention

Thursday was definitely a weird day in the markets. And I am not talking about Nvidia which is all the rage. Heading into its earnings I wrote that the stock was a buy on Wednesday as it should pop on the news.While I usually do not flip stocks that quickly, the stock is now a sell on the news and overreaction. Stock market action on Thursday was strange and not exactly in a good way. We did a fair amount […]   Read More
Date: February 23, 2024

Nvidia, Nvidia, Nvidia, Apple and Fox Business

First, I am very excited to join my friend and the most dapper man on TV, Charles Payne, on Fox Business’ Making Money likely between 2:05pm and 2:30pm today. I am old enough to remember when the stock market was obsessed with GE’s earnings. It was a huge market mover. Everyone opined. Networks lined up to have CEO Jack Welch join them. Then GE fell out of favor. The market then became obsessed with Apple’s earnings. Everyone followed the stock. […]   Read More
Date: February 21, 2024

Figuring Out The Transports And Avoiding The Rust

They’re not making it easy. But do they ever? Yes, they do. Who is “they”? I’m not really sure, but I seem to use the pronoun a lot. Let me give you an example of one thing that confused me lately. Look at the two charts below. The first one is the Dow Jones Transportation Index which is made up of thing like airlines, rails, truckers and shippers. It is nowhere near its August 2023 peak which is concerning. Now […]   Read More
Date: February 17, 2024

One Day Wonder or The Start of a Big Decline

The markets had a little down day, eh? I like when people ask me why the markets “crashed” on Tuesday. I mean, stocks are up 20% since the October bottom and hadn’t had even a 2% decline in three months. And we see a single down day of 1-3% and people are all beared up. I want to say that I don’t get it, but I totally do. It’s investor psychology and behavioral finance. And let’s be crystal clear like […]   Read More
Date: February 14, 2024

***Q4 Client Update***

2023 ended much the way it began, with the bulls firmly in charge, our strategies locked and loaded long and me continuing to pound the table for higher prices. However, the financial market landscape could not have been more different. 12 months ago, it was difficult to find a positive forecast. I was almost all alone on the bullish island for 2023. Wall Street, the pundits and the media were firmly negative. Recession was coming. Inflation was out of control. […]   Read More
Date: February 12, 2024

Today’s Millionaires: Exploring What “High Net Worth” Really Means

Many individuals and families we provide wealth management services do not consider themselves rich or categorized as “high-net-worth” when they should be. So, what does it really mean to be a high-net-worth individual? In today’s blog, we’ll examine what it means to be a high-net-worth individual and explore how far $1 million will last during your retirement years.  As an independent, accredited investment fiduciary in New Haven, CT, we specialize in helping high-net-worth individuals create sophisticated retirement plans that set […]   Read More
Date: February 12, 2024

Dotcom Bubble It Ain’t – Anatomy Of a Sale

Lately, I have heard some of the higher profile pundits compare this market to 1999. That is total nonsense and garbage. I am embarrassed for them. Either they are lazy and ignorant. I was there during the lead up to the Dotcom collapse. I vividly remember losing clients in Q4 1999 for not embracing the new paradigm. Client thought I was stupid for owning a bunch of pharma stocks. Next week, I will pull out some charts to compare the […]   Read More
Date: February 9, 2024

But It’s Only 6 Stocks & It Looks Like The Dotcom Bubble

With the plethora of news the markets haven’t really gone anywhere lately. It seems like the world is now obsessed with the supposed narrowness of the rally and everyone has become a top down expert in the area. These kinds of divergences can matter tomorrow or in a year. However, the longer they go on, the worse the punishment will ultimately be. Of course, lack of participation can be fixed by, you guessed it, big participation. Below is a familiar […]   Read More
Date: February 7, 2024

Horrible Market Action BUT BUT BUT Bears Carried Out On a Stretcher

On Friday we saw what I would consider to be a powerful jobs report showing that the economy created more than 350,000 new jobs in January. That was well above the forecast of 185,000. While I am sure someone in pundit got somewhat close, the masses were largely looking for a disappointing report. The “BUT BUT BUT” crowd was out in loud fashion qualifying why this was bunk. And then the political conspiracy crowd was parading around claiming government manipulation. […]   Read More
Date: February 5, 2024

Sell The News, Buy The News, Scratch Your Head On The News

What a week it has been! And I am always happy to be home from the road even though the weather was sunny and pleasant down south. Between the Fed, employment report and earnings from high profile names like Apple, Amazon, Google, Facebook and Microsoft, the markets have had a ton to digest. And with all that news you would think that there would have to have been a big move in the stock market. However, conventional wisdom would be […]   Read More
Date: February 2, 2024

SPECIAL Fed Day Update – Powell Has Cover to Cut

BREAKING NEWS: Fed Leaves Interest Rates Alone – No Change in Balance Sheet Reduction Now you don’t have to wait until 2pm to learn the news that everyone knows already. Powell’s press conference may be a different story. Let’s start with the model for the day which is plus or minus 0.50% for the S&P 500 and then a big move after 2pm. Pre-Powell, that move was higher. Jay hasn’t been as kind to the market as his predecessors. With […]   Read More
Date: January 31, 2024

Huge Week Ahead

Last Friday’s blog, The Ducks Are Quacking – Most Selling I Have Done Since 2022, certainly generated a response. I do enjoy hearing from readers, whether you agree with my thoughts or not. I had to remind people that I am not turning outright negative and we still have a significant amount of “risk on” exposure, especially in our aggressive strategies. However, where we had more than 100% exposure in other strategies or where I saw odd underperformance, I reduced […]   Read More
Date: January 29, 2024

Building Enduring Wealth: Your Guide to Thriving at 100 and Beyond

In today’s world, where medical advancements, healthier lifestyles, and new technologies are extending life expectancies, living to 100 or beyond for one or both spouses isn’t just a possibility—it’s increasingly likely. This begs the all-important question: Have you saved enough to sustain your retirement lifestyle and financial security for 35 years? This is especially relevant if longevity runs in your family.  This extended time horizon demands a fresh perspective on retirement planning that goes beyond traditional strategies and embraces the […]   Read More
Date: January 26, 2024

The Ducks Are Quacking – Most Selling I’ve Done Since 2022

There is an old expression in the markets. When the ducks quack, feed them. It means that when investors crave something, give it to them. Those rare times usually fall at market peaks as the masses are not known for good timing. As bad as Merrill Lynch may be at a whole host of business things, I will give them credit for creating all sorts of Dotcom products in 1999 and 2000 to feed the insatiable appetite of investors in […]   Read More
Date: January 26, 2024