Nice Reversal But…

We saw a semi-impressive turnaround on Thursday led by the small and mid caps stocks. Interestingly, bond yields did not fall hard which is why leadership continued to come from the cyclical areas like financials, energy, materials and industrials, those same sectors I have been touting all year. I do like potential lows to be hammered in on Thursday instead of Friday, but the bulls should get a move on sooner than later. Negative seasonal trends begin to mitigate, but […]   Read More
Date: March 26, 2021

Watching Technology Closely

Some days, I even surprise myself. This morning, I wrote most of my blog post, thought I uploaded it and then went about my day. As I was going through my post-market day wrap up, I noticed it sitting in the draft folder. Nice work Paul! Anyway, following up on my comments from Monday, this week was setting up to be down and the bears are trying hard to grab the upper hand. Without having the major stock market indices […]   Read More
Date: March 24, 2021

They Don’t Make It Easy

Friday was another in what has become a long line of dichotomous days where the 5 major stock market indices were not all in sync. To add confusion on to that was how each of the indices were behaving over the previous two days. While Fridays are always tough days to glean much, especially into the close ahead of a weekend, it looked like Monday could set up for further downside although the Russell 2000 small caps looked the best […]   Read More
Date: March 22, 2021

Heritage Capital Warns: 5 Common Mistakes Made with Social Security

Social Security is a cornerstone element in many retirement plans. It’s also a complex beast, and inattention to details can lead to costly mistakes. Planning how and when to claim your Social Security benefits should start well before age 62, the first year you can receive payments. By starting early and understanding all of your options, you’ll be better positioned to extract the maximum value from your Social Security benefits. While Social Security won’t be your only source of income […]   Read More

Crowded Trade Could See Quick & Sharp Reversal

Stocks continue to pull back from their recent all-time highs earlier this week. That is, except for the NASDAQ 100 which has been mired in a correction since mid-February as soaring bond yields have come at the expense of tech. I will say this; unless the NASDAQ 100 quickly closes above this week’s high point, it should be headed for new 2021 lows. The other major indices are behaving well and should see fresh all-time highs next month. It seems […]   Read More
Date: March 19, 2021

The Single Most Important Fed Day Ever – Phooey

The stock market model for today is plus or minus 0.50% until 2pm and then a bigger move. However, with the S&P 500 at new highs this week, the usual ammunition for a big rally is gone. With pre-market indicating a lower open, the model is to buy anything lower than -0.50% and reduce or eliminate at 2pm. Here we go again. All the hyperbole about the single most important Fed meeting ever has started yet again. The deal is […]   Read More
Date: March 17, 2021

Dow Crashes 3000 Points – 3rd Worst Percent Day on Record

First, I want to quickly thank so many of you who emailed suggestions and actionable info to help me secure a vaccine. A week ago, after having to put down one of our family pets, my phone rang at 3:55pm with an offer to vaccinate me if I could be at CVS in New Haven in 20 minutes. Suffice it to say, a law or two may have been breached. As I walked in, I received another call with a […]   Read More
Date: March 16, 2021

The Unloved Become Winners

Last year, the theme was mega cap technology at the expense of everything else. Since my “pound the table buy bottom” October 30th, we have had a complete reversal of fortunes. Small caps have led the indices. Cyclicals like banks, energy, industrials, transports and materials finally sprung to life. Bonds became as hated as they were loved. It’s really quite fascinating how the markets value things differently in different climates. Investors who get married to a particular theme or stock […]   Read More
Date: March 15, 2021

Yields Popping Again – More Classic Dichotomy

Stocks look to open lower to end the week as the 10-Year Note yield is surging again. That will put pressure on growth and technology to the benefit of my favorite cyclical groups like banks, energy, industrials and materials. Since the NASDAQ 100 peaked on February 16, there has only been one single back to back days of gains. More than anything else, that tells you how every rally is being aggressively sold. However, look at small and mid cap […]   Read More
Date: March 12, 2021

Fox Business TODAY, The 10-Year Boogeyman & Dow 33,000

I am excited to join my friend, Charles Payne, on Fox Business’ Making Money today at 2:45pm today (Thursday) discussing SPACs and the epic greed and euphoria in the financial markets. The other day, I joined my friend, Tim Lammers, on Fox61’s Morning News to discuss my recently published e-book. Tim is the consummate pro and I really enjoyed sharing tips and strategies that anyone can follow as they plan for retirement. In fact, I am going to do a […]   Read More
Date: March 11, 2021

Markets Full of Emotion and Tepper Speaks Out

So much going on today after such an emotional reversal on Friday. Let’s start with last week. After a rout on Thursday and an ugly morning on Friday, the bulls came roaring back across the board to close stocks near their highs for the day. Interesting to note that the major indices rallied 3-5% from their intra-day lows to the close. That is certainly emotional. One day reversal patterns look awesome on a chart, but they do not have the […]   Read More
Date: March 8, 2021

Navigating Taxes IN Retirement

The road to lower tax paid runs through your entire lifetime, both pre- and post-retirement. The decisions you make before retirement critically impact your tax situation after retirement. But don’t dismiss the additional steps you can take within retirement to keep your taxes as low as possible. (This is especially important for a high net worth retirement, because the more money you have, the higher the taxes you’ll face.)   How is Social Security Taxed? Social Security benefits are subject […]   Read More
Date: March 8, 2021

Classical Dichotomy

In 1994 which seems like a lifetime ago, I played Rotisserie Baseball. It was the predecessor to all these super popular fantasy sports. 12 of us met right before the season began and we drafted our own teams from MLB rosters. Changes to rosters were permitted weekly although for an extra fee, you could do this daily and use what was called a fax machine to send in activity. On Monday’s the statistics service would snail mail leagues standings and […]   Read More
Date: March 4, 2021

Strange End to Feb – Buying Weakness Remains the Play

What a very strange close to February. With the stock market up on the month and Friday a decent day, there were massive computer generated sell programs in the final 15 minutes that knocked the S&P 500 down more than 1.5% before recovering a bit into the close. Interestingly, there was not a TICK spike, meaning that the programs were not widespread. They were limited to a handful of major stocks in the index. We do not know why or […]   Read More
Date: March 1, 2021

“EVERYONE” Talking Bond Yields Now

Thursday was an ugly day. It was one of those “throw everything out with the garbage” kind of day. All indices and all sectors were red. The surge in 10-year yields was blamed. As you know, my forecast for 10-year yields in the first half of 2021 was in the range of 1.3-1.4%. Bond yields hit 1.6% intra-day yesterday as you can see below. The next “logical” levels are 1.65% and 2%. I do not believe we see 2% this […]   Read More
Date: February 26, 2021

That’s It? Decline Over?

Tuesday was certainly one of those wildly volatile days, the kind we saw often last March and a few times in June and September. What was interesting about Tuesday was that significant intra-day losses were reversed so close to an all-time high. That doesn’t happen all that often and from memory, it was behavior seen often as the Dotcom Bubble was fully inflating and about to peak. The question now is, was that it? Is the pullback over? To exaggerate […]   Read More
Date: February 24, 2021

A Change in Tune? Decline Unfolding?

It would be impossible for any of my readers to not know my theme of epic greed and euphoria in the financial markets since late last year. Yet, stocks keep forging ahead, almost unabated except for a very brief 4% pullback a few weeks ago. Make no mistake about it, a sentiment landscape like this is not going to end well. To be crystal clear, excessive risk taking is going to be severely punished. Please do not email me with […]   Read More
Date: February 22, 2021

How to Get Accurate and Realistic Retirement Projections

Decisions about retirement have both objective and subjective components. Generally, the objective components deal with your money – how much you’ll have and how much you’ll need. To get accurate and realistic retirement projections, you’ll also need to consider other factors, such as your age, health, debt and estate plans. On the subjective side is deciding when to retire, where to live after retirement, and what to do with yourself in retirement. Do you have family that you want to […]   Read More
Date: February 22, 2021

Another Opp For The Bulls

Stocks have pulled back so mildly over the past few days with the Russell 2000, S&P 400 and NASDAQ 100 leading the way. Yet, there is a short-term buying opportunity in the stock market as today is an expiration day. Those indices that fell that hardest are supposed to bounce the most and likely to new highs. The key will be if one or more do not. That would be an opportunity to further prune and move away from the […]   Read More
Date: February 19, 2021

Now It’s About Rates

The yield on long-dated treasuries is set to jump this morning and the pundits are all over this. You can see in the chart below that the 10-Year Treasury Note has gone from almost 2% a year ago to 0.40% at the height of the Corona Crash in March to almost 1.30% today. That is hardly a surge in long-term interest rates and a gross exaggeration that equity investors are going to eschew stocks for bonds. But yet, we have […]   Read More
Date: February 16, 2021