Pullback Area About To Be Reached – Banks Trying

Boy, when the S&P 500 crashes into its average price of the last 200 days that is really like a 12 foot thick, impenetrable concrete wall that no market can even get through. Those nasty bears. Yes, I am of course being sarcastic. The Dow Industrials, S&P 400 and Russell 2000 did not even flinch on their way through those respective levels. With today’s sharply lower open on the heels of a very heavy day last Friday, the stock market […]   Read More
Date: August 22, 2022

Stocks Regain Half of Bear Market – New Highs Ahead?

Earlier this week I wrote about the stock market visiting the Magical and Mystical level of the average price of the last 200 days. I was a bit snarky and sarcastic as I usually am when pundits make asinine comments and claims. In any case, I wrote that the “obvious trade is to suck money in and then quickly pull the rug”. Judging by the last two days and what looks to be a weak opening and options expiration, that’s […]   Read More
Date: August 19, 2022

The Magical & Mystical 200 Day Moving Average

On Monday I wrote China Stinky and said that we need to see how markets react to the news rather than accept the news at face value. And wouldn’t you know it, U.S. stocks surged higher after opening lower in the face of all that bad news. Let me get my shocked face, said me with full sarcasm. Can we rewind all those bearish pundit interviews before 10am on Monday? Of course the media won’t hold anyone accountable. On Tuesday […]   Read More
Date: August 17, 2022

China Stinky

The new week begins with news that China’s economy isn’t as robust as thought. Who really knows what goes on over there. They are never forthcoming will data so this likely means it’s kind of stinky now. While that news hit the pre-market let’s remember that it’s not what the news is, but rather how markets react. Have you heard that before? When I look at the Chinese stocks and ETFs of which we own KWEB, they all seem to […]   Read More
Date: August 15, 2022

Make Like a Banker—Stress Test Your Retirement Strategy

You’ve probably heard of stress tests for banks. These are designed to anticipate (and thereby lessen the impact of) worst-case scenarios: What if a stock market crash happens? What if rates go up? But what about your retirement money?  Similarly, you should also be thinking about how you would react to adverse scenarios, such as an unexpected medical emergency or the death of your spouse. A retirement stress test can help evaluate how well prepared you are for unexpected events […]   Read More
Date: August 15, 2022

Face Ripping Rally

On Wednesday before the government released the first of two inflation reports I wrote If I am Wrong the Rally Has Ended. I try to be crystal clear on my thesis. I wrote that “I do not believe the rally has ended…” There was no wavering. But I always try recognize how and when I could be wrong. I was surprised at the number of emails asking me why I thought the rally was over. I never said I thought […]   Read More
Date: August 12, 2022

If I am Wrong the Rally Has Ended

The stock market as measured by the S&P 500 has basically gone nowhere in 7 trading sessions. Bulls say it is a sign of strength that all the negative headlines have been unable to shake the market lower. Bears looks at that dark blue horizontal line below and conclude that stocks failed to close above it and are now vulnerable. Although I do not believe the rally from the June 17th bottom is over, I am certainly aware of a […]   Read More
Date: August 10, 2022

Heading to the Hamptons – No Recession There

For you golf fans out there, if you didn’t catch Nick Faldo’s retirement from a second successful career, it’s one for the ages. Watch here. And so we start a new week with the dog days of summer still crushing New England and much of the country. I cannot get over how long we have had hazy, hot and humid days in CT. This isn’t the southeast where people are used to it. And if you’re keeping score at home, […]   Read More
Date: August 8, 2022

***Q2 Client Update***

Many people like to read my very “brief” quarterly client update which I select excerpts. If you’re one of them, please read on. If not, feel free to stop now. Always happy to hear comments and questions. Let’s dive right in, be upfront and recognize that Q2 was a very challenging quarter in almost every asset class and across the spectrum with poor performance at a level not seen since Q1 2020. In fact, although the stock market did not […]   Read More
Date: August 5, 2022

High Yield Bonds Join The Party – FINALLY!

Until the last few weeks, I had been complaining about high yield’s lack of enthusiasm off the June lows. The sector had looked like death. I am sure part my bemoaning was that the fact that we have been legging into the high yield sector since June to get fully fully invested. Below I show you two different ways to view junk bonds, through an ETF and a mutual fund, let me also say that because these bonds pay high […]   Read More
Date: August 3, 2022

Dog Days of August

I can’t believe it’s already August. I am not ready for the countdown to end summer, even though ski season may only be 100 or so days away. I like wearing shorts, tee shirts and flip flops. Where has the year gone? Can we slow down a bit? July’s market action was a whole lot more fun for the bulls than June, May, April, etc. The S&P 500 was up more than 9% and the bond market rallied by 2.5%. […]   Read More
Date: August 1, 2022

Recession?!?! – NOT

Let’s start with my conclusion. The U.S. is not in recession as I think I have stated every month this year. Yes, I know the government just released its first look at Q2 GDP and it was negative for the second straight quarter. And if you consult Webster’s dictionary, that’s the definition of recession. But since when is Webster the end all be all arbiter? Lots of pundits believe the U.S. is already in recession. I have not been among […]   Read More
Date: July 29, 2022

***SPECIAL Fed Update – Pivot on the Way, No Recession Yet***

Let’s start with the market info of the day. It’s Fed announcement day and the market usually trades plus or minus 0.50% until 2pm and then volatility expands and we get a big move, usually to the upside. With the pre-market strong, much work looks to already be done. Because the last two days were weak that strengthened the trend today to a large degree and on Twitter you saw the additional positions taken. Jay Powell and the rest of […]   Read More
Date: July 27, 2022

How We Helped Janice Create a Successful Retirement Plan

Janice was a new client who came to us to set up a retirement savings financial plan. She was 55 and wanted to retire in 10 years.  Her investments for retirement were primarily in a 401(k) plan through her employer. She owned a lot of company stock. She also had an account at a major brokerage house and invested in an assortment of stocks, mutual funds, and bonds. Janice was unsure how that was working for her.  She was thinking […]   Read More
Date: July 26, 2022

Dizzying Week Ahead

With the biggest earnings week of the season including Amazon, Apple, Facebook, Microsoft and UPS, the FOMC announcement on Wednesday and first look at Q2 GDP on Thursday, this is going to be a super busy week. Heading into the weekend, S&P 4000 or so looked to be a logical pause point for the stock market as I wrote here. Stocks have had a nice bounce off the June bottom and a breather will not be the worst thing in […]   Read More
Date: July 25, 2022

Bulls Firmly in Control But 4000 Should Start Pause

The stock market is having a good week. The nasty reversal on Monday didn’t even give the bears satisfaction for 24 hours. It turned out to be a trap and stocks immediately soared higher again. Below is an update of the chart I posted last week with price filling in for where I had my light blue lines to generally forecast the next few weeks. S&P 4000 is within reach and that would fill the remaining gap left from the […]   Read More
Date: July 22, 2022

Finally a Surge in Buying Interest

Don’t look now, but the bulls have scored two big up days in the last three days with an intervening reversal on Monday. We are finally seeing a surge in buying interest as the many of the major indices attempt to exceed their late June highs. If successful that would be higher highs and higher lows. If I am wrong and the bear market is about to resume we should see immediate failure by the bulls. The S&P 500 is […]   Read More
Date: July 20, 2022

The News is Awful

The news this week has been putrid, like Tiger Woods’ golf at the British Open. CPI was hot. PPI was hot. Talk has turned to a full 1% rate hike by the Fed on July 27th. Bank earnings hasn’t been very good so far except for Citibank. Yet, as I write this before lunch the S&P 500 is down a little more than 1% this week. The NASDAQ 100 is down even less. With all that bad news, the casual […]   Read More
Date: July 15, 2022

6 Smart Strategies for High Net Worth Retirement Planning

High net worth (HNW) families such as yours face unique challenges, and opportunities, in the years leading up to retirement. You require sophisticated planning that addresses the complexities that inevitably accompany affluence, from tax strategies to estate plans. It’s critical to partner with the right professional financial advisor, someone with the knowledge and experience to customize solutions for your unique circumstances. And a friendly, caring attitude wouldn’t hurt, either. Here are six elements of an overall strategy that map out […]   Read More
Date: July 14, 2022

Feeling HOT, HOT HOT

On Tuesday I saw a tweet quoting someone in the Biden Administration as saying that today’s inflation data had “stale” energy prices in it. To me that meant he had already seen the report and was prepping the markets and people for a hot CPI today. The stock market hung in nicely on Tuesday until the lunchtime lull turned into the afternoon plunge. All in all, it still wasn’t an awful day. The government released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) […]   Read More
Date: July 13, 2022