Dotcom Era Euphoria Doesn’t Mean Imminent Bear Market

The short answer is yes. Epic greed and euphoria remain in the markets. Bitcoin may have mildly pulled back and Tesla hasn’t made a new high this week, but that won’t correct what is the single worst sentiment backdrop since the Dotcom Bubble. However, unlike the Dotcom era, the stock market’s foundation remains fairly solid. Recall that when the Dotcom stocks soared, they were the only game in town. The vast majority of stocks peaked in May 1998. Today, the […]   Read More
Date: January 13, 2021

All Smart Eyes on the Dollar – Top 15 Resolutions Video is Up

As you know, I offered my full Top 15 Financial Resolutions for 2021 on Fox61 last week and I actually sped through the entire list. Over the weekend I made a video of that list and went into more detail on each of the resolutions. Here it is below. Top 15 Financial Resolutions for 2021 Since Friday’s blog post, there is nothing that has changed any of my thinking regarding the markets. Stocks look like they will open down by […]   Read More
Date: January 11, 2021

Easy Money and Fun

So far in this young year, we have seen a new variant of highly contagious COVID, a blue sweep in Georgia resulting in unified government in DC and a massive protest gone awry with the United States’ Capitol being stormed by lunatics and destructive people. If I read you those headlines from Japan, Germany or Brazil and asked you to guess how their stock markets were performing, I think it is safe to say those most would estimate at least […]   Read More
Date: January 8, 2021

What Santa Claus, Q4 and 2020 Say About 2021’s Market Return

In November and December the media was all abuzz with the Santa Claus Rally (SCR) and January Effect. Now that the SCR has ended and there is a result,  no one seems to care about it. That’s very typical. If you are keeping score at home, the SCR which is technically the final five trading days of the year and first two of the new year, yielded +1%. Revisiting Yale Hirsch’s old adage, “Should Santa Claus fail to call, bears […]   Read More
Date: January 6, 2021

The First Downside Catalyst of 2021 – Georgia on My Mind

Here we are in 2021 and nothing has changed as the calendar turned. The stock market remains in an epic state of greed and euphoria, the likes of which we haven’t seen since the Dotcom era although January 2017 and 2018 as well as Q4 2019 were close. The market’s foundation was very solid, but there are a number of cracks appearing the lead me to believe we will see at least a short, sharp pullback of 4-8% in Q1. […]   Read More
Date: January 4, 2021

Investing in Volatile Markets: Heritage Capital Addresses Concerns

Market volatility is constant, yet it’s common for investors to forget during strong bull markets. We all got a reminder in 2020. With a new year upon us, investors are now asking: What if another 2020 happens? How do long-term investors prepare for volatility? As founder and president of Heritage Capital, I’ve been helping investors since 1988. Volatility fluctuates over time, providing opportunities and challenges for investors who tend to feel more uncertain during highly volatile markets. It is like […]   Read More
Date: January 4, 2021

Pay Attention – January Has The Most Stock Market Trends of The Year

Welcome to 2021! I hope you had a safe and at least a semi-enjoyable New Year’s. After a delicious dish of langostinos with squid ink pasta in a spicy sauce that I think had some bacon and an amazing 2007 Shafer Relentless, I fell asleep on the couch from 8 to 10pm. When I awoke, the Shafer was long gone and my son and I started watching some random show that turned out to be really great and highly recommended. […]   Read More
Date: January 2, 2021

Calendar FINALLY Turning to 2021 – Careful What You Wish For

If you’re keeping score at home Santa and L5 are +1.13% with L5 ending today. There is a very specific trend for which major stock market indices are suppose to be owned next week which I will share. Today is the last day to realize capital gains and losses for 2020. We have harvested as many losses as we can for 2020 already. In hindsight, we should have been even more proactive early in 2020 during the Corona Crash. As […]   Read More
Date: December 31, 2020

Greed & Euphoria Still Present – Foundation Beginning to Crumble

It’s odd that stocks look tired at this time of year. The normal trend is to see a mild and gentle drift higher into January, and perhaps that is what we are seeing if you just look at price action. However, the stock market’s foundation which I have called solid and strong has and is weakening. At best, it is now neutral. Neutral by itself is okay if market sentiment is supportive. The problem is that we now have more […]   Read More
Date: December 30, 2020

Santa Claus’ Time to Call – L5 Results From Paul

Historically, as I have been mentioning for weeks, the market is in the midst of one of the most favorable times of the year. The big picture is positive seasonality from November 1 through April 30 with November and December being especially strong. More granular, late December through early January is even better. And the traditional Santa Claus Rally (SCR) began at the close of trading on December 23rd. That’s five trading days before year-end and the first two trading […]   Read More
Date: December 28, 2020

Top Year-End Financial Tips for 2020

Well, my segment on Fox 61 did not go as planned. My scheduled time got pushed back right into a hard commercial stop and I wasn’t able to offer one of my favorite lists. Instead of crying and breaking my desk, like I did when the Jets won a meaningless football game on Sunday and lost the next great quarterback to come into the NFL, I did the next best thing. I made my own video of my Top Year-End […]   Read More
Date: December 23, 2020

Stocks Down at the Open? Call the Market Police!

On Friday we saw some truly unusual behavior during the final hour of trading. However, with a $675 stock like Tesla joining the S&P 500 with a weighting of 1.52%, the action was more understandable, but no less crazy. I would have expected the final 30 minute surge in the major indices to be unwound this morning. Waking up and seeing a 1-2% decline in the pre-market sets a different tone for the day. That’s the biggest move lower since […]   Read More
Date: December 21, 2020

News Quieting – Volatility to Follow

As we typically see this time of year, the news flow is quieting down and the markets have been even quieter. This trend is supposed to be in place for the rest of the year. The markets may have a day or two where they hit a pocket of air, much like you experience when flying, but overall, the trend is to see a mild drift higher. As I have written about for more than a month, any and all […]   Read More
Date: December 17, 2020

Seasonal Low This Week – Big Bears Still Wrong

As you know I have been writing about this very mild patch of seasonal softness in early to mid-December. Historically, it is ends this week at some point. Given how little stocks have pulled back, it is entirely possible that all we end up seeing is some sideways action with a percent or two on the downside. This is also the period where small caps historically outperform large caps from mid-December through early January. A year ago, I was sounding […]   Read More
Date: December 14, 2020

New Year’s Resolutions: Using What We Learned From 2020 (And 1986)

The year 2020 will not soon be forgotten. For some, the market created significant new wealth. But for many folks, the year was terrible in terms of health and finances. Even so, it’s an ill wind that blows no good, so we would do well to pay attention to the year’s hard-learned lessons. Perhaps the best way to do this is to apply some new wisdom to our 2021 New Year’s resolutions. Another year worth studying is 1986, leading up […]   Read More

Seasonal Headwind But Junk is Stress Free

Stocks continue to digest and very mildly pull back. The NASDAQ 100 has been the “worst”, but still barely noticeable so far. As I keep mentioning we are in a seasonally soft time of year for another week. That doesn’t mean crash, just a mild headwind. I fully expect the media to again report on the plethora of negative news. Record COVID cases, hospitalizations and deaths. Stimulus stalled for the umpteenth time. Government runs out of money tonight. But keep […]   Read More
Date: December 11, 2020

When the Ducks Quack, Wall Street Feeds Them

For the past week or so I have been writing about a mild seasonal soft patch that usually occurs right about now. It’s the post-Thanksgiving to mid-December period of digestion where we typically see the rally moderate, flatten out and then mildly pull back. All the signs were there that the peak was on Wednesday morning. Should the major indices immediately recover and find new highs, my thesis will be wrong. Otherwise, I will look for a low next week […]   Read More
Date: December 10, 2020

December With a New Party in Power

Last week, we looked at the seasonally strong month of December and what tailwinds were ahead. Recall, that there is also a small headwind which begins now when it blows. Should this soft patch develop, it is usually nothing more than a pause or mild pullback of a few percent lasting up to two weeks. With a change of power in the White House, I went back and checked December performance. Since 1992, the bulls have a perfect record. Keep […]   Read More
Date: December 7, 2020

Does Your Retirement Plan Cover You for Life?

One factor that can complicate your retirement planning is not knowing how many years your retirement will last. While no one can know for sure, if you haven’t considered your realistic life expectancy, you risk shortchanging your later years or even running out of money. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the average length of retirement is 18 years. People retire at age 63 on average, and a general life expectancy is 81 years. That means a typical retirement plan […]   Read More
Date: December 7, 2020

Seasonal Soft Patch, Sector Rotation and the Greenback’s Plunge

As I started to mention the other day, during this time of year we have a very light, seasonal soft patch in stocks that usually begins with the rally moderating, then going sideways and finally pulling back mildly. With momentum so strong right now, we will see shortly if this comes to fruition. The rally has been moderating but that’s been it. Very quietly, we have seen the defensive sectors like REITs, staples and utilities really start to lag as […]   Read More
Date: December 4, 2020