Initial Jobless Claims – A Look Since March

Thursday is upon us and weekly jobless claims will be reported at 8:30am. The stock market has met every horrific report with intense buying. Many forget that the single worst week has been right around the market bottom on March 23. Since then, weekly new claims have plummeted, but I guess that between PPP and businesses staying open, there are only so many people who could additionally file. The real number is continuing claims which looks like it’s plateauing because […]   Read More
Date: May 28, 2020

More Good News as the Trading Range Breaks Higher

As I mentioned in Friday’ post, not much happened last week after Monday’s sharply higher open. Stocks essentially treaded water and bullishly digested the gains. You could also say that has been the case since mid-April in the major indices with the exception of the NASDAQ 100 which is in a world of its own. Below is the Dow Industrials and you can see the trading range I have been discussing bound by the two horizontal blue lines. A few comments […]   Read More
Date: May 26, 2020

Trading Range Continues. Bonds Thumped. Bulls to Win Today.

As I have been writing about, until proven otherwise which would mean I am wrong, the major stock indices with the exception of the NASDAQ 100 hit a ceiling last week and appear to be in a trading range bound by Dow 25,000 and roughly 22,000. On the S&P 500 that amounts to 2930 and 2630. The NASDAQ 100 is trading like it’s 1999 and all is very well in the world. The longer the range continues, the more significant […]   Read More
Date: May 7, 2020

Warren Buffet Hangover as Bulls Prepare

The bears had a nice close to last week and to begin the new month. I posted a number of studies regarding May and the next 6 months on Friday. The overall theme is that the longer we look out into the future, the more positive the studies. The shorter we look, at least as of last week, the less positive they get. However, in the really short-term, if today is down, which would be the third straight down day, […]   Read More
Date: May 4, 2020

May Begins With a Number of Studies as the Bulls Get Knocked a Bit

On Friday, the stock market technically begins the sometimes “dreaded” sell in May and go away period which last until October 31. This seasonal trend has a questionable track record the more recent you look. However, in years where January through April has been down already, its record has merit. I will touch more on this in the upcoming issue of Street$marts due out shortly. The first trading day of May has an enviably bullish track record, not so much […]   Read More
Date: May 1, 2020

Bulls Seizing the Moment – Junk Bonds Not

On Monday I wrote about the Lines in the Sand that were drawn for both bull and bear.  On Tuesday we saw the bulls celebrate with a breach to the upside that could not hold until the close. Today, the bulls are testing the upward bounds again, likely with very different results by the time the day ends. What’s been eating at me lately is high yield bonds as you can see below. They were behaving “fine” until the Fed […]   Read More
Date: April 29, 2020

Bulls & Bears Draw Lines in the Sand

Stocks ended last week with a three day rally that looks to be built upon this morning. The major indices continue to trade in the range I outlined several weeks ago as the likely first bounce. What I did not envision was stocks getting into that range and then essentially going sideways. Historically, that has bullish implications. The first chart below is the S&P 500 on a daily basis so you can see the first bounce range of between 1/2 […]   Read More
Date: April 27, 2020

Airlines Stocks Look Awful While Stock Market Risk Clearly Defined

Yesterday, I wrote about my anger and disgust regarding the airline  bailout. That won’t change anytime soon. Today, I want to look at the group and how they have been trading. Below you can see a chart of the airlines as represented by the JETS ETF. Besides declining 65% from high to low since the market’s peak, notice how little green is on the chart. Green days mean the closing price is that much higher than the opening price. Red […]   Read More
Date: April 24, 2020

Angry & Disgusted

Last week, the government announced a deal with the 10 major airlines in the U.S. for outright grants as well as low interest, long-term loans. The government gets very little in return. As you know, I have been imploring the government to do the unfathomable, the unthinkable since early March. Whatever number they had in mind for workers and small business, it wasn’t enough. I also had the utmost confidence that Treasury Secretary, Steve Mnuchin, and Fed Chair, Jay Powell, […]   Read More
Date: April 23, 2020

Oil Trades Below – Dow 40,000???

The oil market has made headlines this year and especially this week with crude oil trading negatively for the first time in history. Yes; you read that correctly. May crude oil closed at -$37 on Monday. However, before you start running out to get paid to own oil, I put together this video to explain what is going on and if the retail investor can take advantage of the crash. If you would rather read a short blog post about […]   Read More
Date: April 22, 2020

RMDs Waived But Mortgage Rates Not Following Bond Market

Recently, I wrote about the April 15 tax filing date being extended to July 15 and the presumption that contributions earmarked for 2019 would also be extended. The IRS confirmed that this week. I also wrote about converting your Traditional IRA to a ROTH IRA, something everyone should consider. Additionally, the recently passed $2 trillion CARES Act did something that I do not believe has ever been done before. It waived the need for people over the age of 70 […]   Read More
Date: April 21, 2020

Fill Your Cars, Top Your Tanks

As we enter a new week and “things” are calming ever so slightly incrementally, crude oil is the story of the overnight as the front month, May, expires and is in total collapse. This is not what it seems on the surface. Yes, crude oil is down sharply again, but the 30% crash has more to do with structure of the commodity contract than a real crash. I need to choose my words carefully and not overwhelm you with lingo. […]   Read More
Date: April 20, 2020

Dow 40,000 Coming But Rest of 2020 Likely Not A Layup

During the vast majority of the bull market from 2009 to 2020, I was always among the most bullish people giving forecasts. I always kidded my buddy Tony Dwyer, market strategist at Canaccord Genuity, that he was the second most bullish person in the industry. I fondly remember Joe Kernen of CNBC Squawk Box fame laughing when I called the Dow to go from 14,000 to 18,000. My 20,000 target was equally dismissed. In late 2016, our model first opened […]   Read More
Date: April 17, 2020

Bulls & Bears Both See Opportunity

Since the most recent rally began on April 2nd, here has the succession of up and down days. Up, down, up, down, up, up, down, up, down. We have not seen back to back down days, just like we never saw back to back up during the entire one month crash. Obviously, the current situation is on a much smaller scale. Wednesday was a down day and as I mentioned on CNBC on Tuesday, it looks like stocks may have […]   Read More
Date: April 16, 2020

Bulls Make Big Progress But a Little Overdone

The bulls had quite the holiday-shortened week last, showing their best performance since 1974 and 1931. Both of those years were in the midst of very strong bear markets if you care. Clearly, what’s going today is without precedent. As I continue to mention, this is the first time in world history where the government shut down our own economy and induced the sharpest contraction ever from a high. On Thursday, we learned that another 6.6 million Americans filed new […]   Read More
Date: April 13, 2020

3 Scenarios for the Stock Market in Q2

After big declines in stocks, it pays to hear what the masses are thinking because they are usually wrong collectively. At the last major bottom in December 2018, most people were looking for a rally and a revisiting of the Christmas low. I was in that camp. As we know, stocks rocketed higher and never looked back all last year. There were plenty of confirmations in January that another decline was no longer in the cards. Today, we have a […]   Read More
Date: April 8, 2020

Bulls Huge Surge into the Zone

The bulls came back from the weekend in much better health with the intent of damaging the bears. Lots of hope on the Covid numbers out of NYC as well as the hope for the economy to reopen sooner than later. While I do love optimism, I don’t see the economy restarting so quickly. I think way too many confuse the curve flattening or peaking with things get dramatically better. But definitely count me in for hope! Monday’s rally was […]   Read More
Date: April 7, 2020

Bulls Looking to Open New Week with a Bang

Without jinxing anything, the weekend seemed on the “quieter” side regarding the news. While it remains bad, things didn’t accelerate to the downside so that’s something. After an abysmal jobs report on Friday, stocks were not down all that much after finishing with a flurry. As I always say, it’s not what the news actually is, but rather how stocks react. A 30%+ decline prices in a lot of the bad news we are seeing and what’s in store down […]   Read More
Date: April 6, 2020

Unfathomable Job Losses

On Thursday, the government reported that 6 million people filed for first time unemployment benefits. The states are finally catching up and able to process the overwhelming numbers. On Friday, the February jobs report saw 700,000 jobs lost with the unemployment rate over 4%. This is the first negative report of jobs since late 2010. I and everyone expect subsequent reports to be equally bad or worse. For decades, I have said that regarding investing, it’s not what the news […]   Read More
Date: April 3, 2020

First Bounce Fails. Bears in Control

In the last two posts I wrote about what I saw as the bulls having the ball early in the week with the bears taking over as the week proceeded. After a day and a half run by the bulls, they quickly gave up by lunch on Tuesday, allowing the bears to enjoy yet another 90% down day on Wednesday where more than 90% of the volume traded was in stocks going down on the day. As you know that […]   Read More
Date: April 2, 2020