Volatility Up, Small Caps Lead & 3 Year Anniversary
Volatility has certainly increased. From less than 15 to over 22. That’s almost 50% in short order. Stocks are int he midst of the mild pullback I have written about. 2-5% is the range on the downside. Weakness remains buyable. You know where money is going on an index level? The same place I have written about for six months, small caps. Below is a chart showing the small caps relative to the large caps. When the link goes up, […]
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Date: October 15, 2025
Stocks Plunge – Bullish Implications
Friday was an ugly day for risk assets as most saw their largest one day plunges since the tariff tantrum period in April. A pullback has been for a while. 80%+ of the volume was in stocks that declined. What rallied the most was hit the hardest. The QQQ which tracks the NASDAQ 100 saw a volume spike to almost 100 million shares as early, all-time high celebrations reversed when Donald Trump tweeted about hitting China with “massive tariffs”. Whether […]
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Date: October 13, 2025
Gold Is What Folks Should Worry About
Yesterday, I took the train to NYC for my Fox Business segment. As I normally do, I opened my laptop and got to work. While many know me as a serial socializer in life, I am laser focused on work when I travel. So I am working away and the man next to me leans over and says, “buy gold”. And then he adds, “and the AI stuff too”. Now, I don’t know much, but I do know that no […]
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Date: October 10, 2025
Pullback Not A Bubble – How To Manage Positions
Not much new since Monday, just more talk about an AI bubble which continues to be nonsense. I do enjoy reading the tweets and emails about how wrong I am, warning me of impending doom. Same folks who warned me about recession in early April and back in 2022 and 2023 because of inflation. These folks have become excellent contrary indicators. The markets are stretched. 100%. They have grinded and crept higher since mid-April without more than a mild pullback. […]
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Date: October 8, 2025
The Impact of AI on Your Retirement Portfolio
Artificial intelligence is no longer a concept on the horizon; it’s already influencing how companies operate, investments are evaluated, and wealth is managed. Suppose you’re an affluent investor in Connecticut, especially if you’re planning your retirement or have already retired. In that case, AI presents opportunities to grow wealth and risks that could erode it if left unaddressed. The real challenge isn’t reacting to every new headline about AI-driven stock rallies or market volatility. It’s ensuring your retirement plan and […]
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Date: October 8, 2025
A “Bubble”?
The news of the day is the OpenAI/AMD deal which is similar to the Nvidia/Intel deal. Both are excellent deals on the surface and win wins. The markets seems to be happy as AMD stock is soaring as is the NASDAQ 100 in pre-market. I am sure there will be more cries that this is the Dotcom Bubble all over again. It’s not. That’s only from lazy, ignorant pundits who don’t do their homework. If I had a nickel for […]
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Date: October 6, 2025
Still In Small Caps – Tesla Turnaround
I am always thankful to the markets gods when I am out of pocket and not much happens, like yesterday and last week with the Jewish holidays. For those who observed, I hope you had an easy and meaningful fast. I made up for the 24 hours of lost time with bagels, lox, cream cheese, ruglah, mimosa, homemade mac n cheese and marble cake. No wonder I had trouble falling asleep. As you know I have been writing about the […]
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Date: October 3, 2025
Conflicting October Stats, Heightened Risk, Dow 50,000 And Something Shutdown
Q4 is here. I always feel like Q3 flies by because it’s summer and the weather is warm. Of course, Q1 crawls by with winter and low daylight. Anyway, we have a number of studies that are relevant to year-end. Let’s start with October. We know that October is one of the few months that performs better when it begins in an downtrend, unlike the present. When the month starts in an uptrend, it shows a slight loss. Getting more […]
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Date: October 1, 2025
From Bonds to Stocks: How Interest Rates Affect Retirement
When rates rise, some retirees breathe easier knowing their bonds might pay more. Others worry that their stock portfolio could take a hit. And when rates fall? The script flips. If you’ve built up $500K or more in investable assets, you’ve probably felt that tension firsthand. The goal isn’t to guess what the Fed will do next; it’s to position your retirement plan to stay strong no matter what happens. Our article, “From Bonds to Stocks: How Interest Rates Affect […]
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Date: September 30, 2025
Ryder Cup Process Needs To Change
Such an amazing weekend for sports enthusiasts. Yankees and Blue Jays battled down to the wire. Two of the best college football games between GA and AL as well as Penn State and Oregon. Cowboys and Packers play no defense in a 40-40 tie. And of course, the biennial Ryder Cup which I had planned my whole Friday through Sunday around for the past year. Having played golf for 52 years and in hundreds of tournaments, the armchair golfer in […]
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Date: September 29, 2025
The Weakest Week Of The Weakest Month Playing Out
On Monday I wrote that this week was the weakest week of the weakest month of the year. Contrary to what we heard from the media and pundits at the end of August about September, I thought this seasonal trend had a good chance to play out because few people were discussing it. Furthermore, I read an additional study which I wasn’t able to verify until today that showed this and next week being down 90%+ of the time. Again, […]
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Date: September 25, 2025
The Weakest Week Of The Weakest Month Is Here
Remember in late August when the media made a huge deal about the bearishness of September? Yeah. Neither do they. I actually met with someone who first wanted to sell everything he had because he knew it was going to be bad. And then he decided not to invest with us because I wasn’t giving the media’s story any credibility. But I did the research and homework to give you the facts and details. And if you’re keeping score at […]
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Date: September 22, 2025
Powell Moves as Expected – Small Caps Continue To Rip
On Wednesday Jay Powell and the FOMC what everyone expected them to do. They cut rates by 1/4% and indicated that more rates reductions were coming. Stocks sold off and then came back. The potential set up for downside did not materialize because there wasn’t a strong upside reaction post-2pm. While the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 didn’t do much over the past two days, my favorite index, the Russell 2000, certainly did. On Fed day, the small caps rallied […]
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Date: September 19, 2025
***SPECIAL Fed Update – Dissolving The FOMC, Dow 50,000+***
On some, many or most FOMC (Fed) days, I often sing Europe’s, “It’s the final countdown”. At 2pm on Wednesday, Jay Powell and the rest of the FOMC conclude their two-day meeting with what will be the first interest rate cut since December 2024, one is long overdue. Before we get there, the stock market model for the day is plus or minus 0.50% until 2pm and then a rally. While the S&P 500 sold off mildly on Tuesday, it […]
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Date: September 17, 2025
Markets Stronger Than Even I Expected
I gotta say that this market is even stronger than I thought in my most bullish scenario. For five months I have been writing about how the tariff tantrum reportedly saw the single greatest mass liquidation by institutions of all-time in dollar terms. And then the masses hated and disavowed the rally right through June before accepting it. I guess I was wrong there. With stocks continuing to grind and creep higher week after week after week, there must an […]
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Date: September 12, 2025
Major Economic News This Week Against Backdrop Of Strong Stock Market
Interesting week so far for economic data. First, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) revised job growth down by 911,000 jobs. That is an epic revision and certainly weakens many narratives and spins about the robustness of the economy. That data was from April 2024 through March 2025. Not shockingly, the politicians have gone dark regarding jobs, and that’s from both sides. This morning, the government released inflation at the producer level. Surprisingly, at least to me, it actually fell […]
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Date: September 10, 2025
Be Careful What You Wish For – But Smalls Caps Are Delivering
Friday saw a strong opening after the less than expected jobs numbers. Think about that. Stocks rallied. Bonds rallied. Gold rallied. And all because of a weaker than expected economic report. Many people would say that is counterintuitive. After all, shouldn’t markets rally on good news and sell off on bad news? Well, that really depends on the market regime. And right now, bad news is good news because it means the Fed is closer to cutting interest rates. I […]
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Date: September 8, 2025
Less Tariffs Now Bad, Weaker Jobs & Finally A Rate Cut
Lots going on to end the week. First, how could I ignore the media’s blame for the big down opening on Tuesday? Remember how every down day in Q1 and early Q2 was because of the prospect of tariffs? And how they would wreck the economy and usher in a new wave of inflation? Yeah. They clearly forgot because all I heard was that stocks were falling because the courts struck down some tariffs and the U.S. needs that revenue. […]
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Date: September 5, 2025
The Ides Of September Or Just Laziness
I often write about seasonality and seasonal trends. I view them as tailwinds or headwinds, but definitely not something to trigger action. I also know that when the media highlights a seasonal pattern it becomes very unlikely to play out. I also know that most people quote seasonality without ever doing the research to confirm what they are saying. It’s also what I write about a lot, laziness. The month of September is here. I have heard from a number […]
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Date: September 3, 2025
Nvidia & Less Government Intervention
I absolutely loved that Nvdia’s earnings did not set off a massive move in the stock. For our models, it makes trading easier when one stock doesn’t have an outsized impact on a given day. As I wrote about the other day, the stock is maturing and the more and more people who own it and focus on it, the less likely we will see surprises and outside the norm reactions. The unintended consequences are that growth rates will also […]
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Date: August 29, 2025
