Market Behaving as Expected. Bottom Shortly.
In my last update, I opined that the Fed should not raise rates and that whatever they did, the market would end whatever move it was having and reverse in the other direction. First, I am glad that Yellen & Co. did not raise rates. That time will come, but it wasn’t last week. Second, stocks rallied nicely into the Fed meeting and in the moments after the announcement. However, it was the perfect “buy the rumor, sell the news” […]
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Date: September 22, 2015
Market Reaction to Fed Announcement
The big lingering question regarding the Fed meeting after the decision is how to properly position portfolios. If you thought it was tough to get an edge on the rate decision, the markets’ reaction is even more so, which is why I would absolutely not advocate making wholesale changes ahead of the announcement. It’s one thing to flip a coin on the decision, but it’s a whole other thing to get the markets’ reaction correct as well. The four possible […]
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Date: September 17, 2015
Will They or Won’t They
I truly cannot wait until September 17th at 2:01 PM. At that time, the Federal Open Market Committee, aka, the Fed, will make a decision about interest rates. I don’t know anyone who isn’t completely exhausted from all of the Fed talk over the past few months. It’s enough already. How many times do we need to see “Countdown to the Fed Decision”, “Special Report: The Fed”, “Breaking News…”, etc. Are there no other business stories worthy of being discussed […]
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Date: September 17, 2015
Follow Up to Post Crash Behavior
Last week, I wrote a piece here and in Street$marts entitled, Post Crash Behavior Leading to Dow 20,000. If you haven’t read it, I think it’s a worthwhile read (of course I do since I wrote it!) whether you agree with the content or not. Subsequently, I was really excited to join CNBC’s Fast Money to discuss my research. A few things I want to add. I used the word “crash” very liberally in my study. After “bubble”, crash is […]
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Date: September 10, 2015
How I Can Best Protect My Investments as the Markets Tank
The following is an article I wrote for Crains Wealth last week. Investors don’t plan to fail. They fail to plan. Markets typically pullback every month. Most pullbacks are nothing more than innocuous 3% to 5% dips – short bouts of weakness followed by new highs. Every quarter or so, the shallow pullback deepens to a 6% to 9% drop. Occasionally, full-fledged corrections of 10% or more take hold. Every four to five years, a bear market hits that lops […]
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Date: September 4, 2015
Post Crash Behavior Leading to Dow 20,000
The day before Flash Crash II last week, I opined that the bottoming process could begin as early as last week. From my seat, it did. One week removed from the mini crash or crashette and stocks took it hard on the chin again. China was blamed, but that’s only a cover story and coincidence. However, unlike August 24, we did not see another Flash Crash. There was no panic. The selling was fairly orderly, which can be viewed as […]
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Date: September 2, 2015
Down 43% and Up 80% All in 12 Minutes. HFT is to Blame.
I am scheduled to be on Fox Business’ Risk & Reward TODAY, Friday, at 5:25 PM. The topic will be a follow up from the two pieces below on my rant after Monday’s embarrassing open as the Dow crashed 1100 points and the financial system was broken. Flash Crash II – HFT and Computers Run Amok… AGAIN This was a Flash Crash Although it was fruitless, I did some more digging to uncover even more inexcusable and unfair trading. My […]
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Date: August 28, 2015
Flash Crash II – HFT and Computers Run Amok… AGAIN
Well that was certainly fun on Monday! Stocks crashed 1100 points at the open, rallied 800 points and the fell almost 300 points to close down 588 points. Given yesterday’s full Street$marts edition and the two blog posts I did here, I am sure most people were expecting a market update. After all, I did offer 3 Scenarios for Monday’s Trading and the market did end up following scenario number one the most. I will get to the market in […]
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Date: August 25, 2015
Three Scenarios for Monday’s Trading
There are three scenarios I see for Monday and the short-term. 1 – Stocks open sharply lower and then spend the morning stabilizing and closing at least okay. From there, a sharp, snapback rally develops for 1-2 weeks before rolling over again to the downside. The final low is seen next month at lower levels. 2 – Stocks open sharply lower and see one or two feeble and failing rallies during the morning before a full-fledged crash in the afternoon. […]
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Date: August 24, 2015
Don the Crash Helmets! It’s Bloody and Ugly Out There!!
By now, everyone knows that the Dow Jones Industrials fell by 1000 points last week, including a 531 point down day to close the week. More selling lies ahead in the short-term. It’s getting ugly. There’s blood in the streets. Sell what you can not what you want. Margin calls are coming. Maximum pain thresholds are being hit for the individual investor. Panic is here! Before I opine on what it means, let’s put it all in perspective. 531 points […]
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Date: August 24, 2015
