When Markets Don’t Accommodate You Pivot Quickly
Friday was a large options expiration, a day when exaggerated moves can be seen, especially when what is supposed to happen doesn’t. The stock market had another strong day on Friday after two down days. In the best of bull markets a two-day decline is a universal time to buy. However, I am not saying this is one of those times, just that it’s something to keep in mind. And I wanted to share some super short-term thoughts from Friday […]
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Date: January 23, 2023
How a Roth Conversion Could Lower Your Tax Costs
Now more than ever, even high-net-worth individuals should be looking for ways to reduce taxes. Inflation, like market volatility, affects everyone: Having a million dollars in a savings account today may buy more goods and services than it could tomorrow. With this in mind, a Roth conversion could be an option worth exploring if you want to reap the benefits of reduced taxes and greater financial flexibility. In a sense, this allows you to have a little cake and eat […]
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Date: January 23, 2023
Fed Should Stop Right Now
As I mentioned the other day, a pause to refresh or a mild pullback would be good for the stock market after running hot and heavy this year so far. On Wednesday we saw weaker economic data in retail sales and before that, Empire Manufacturing. Unlike previous soft data the stock market fell with bad news being bad news. At the same time, the Fed heads were out in full force reiterating their stance for higher interest rates for longer. […]
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Date: January 19, 2023
Bulls Looking Good
The market returns from the three-day weekend having seen a strong rally since January 5th and a few important metrics hit. All of the major stock market indices have been participating in the advance with mid and small caps being the most impressive. They have already exceeded their highs from December 13th which was the last emotional reversal lower. The Dow, S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 have yet to come close. How they behave around those price levels will be […]
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Date: January 17, 2023
Biggest Economic Report of All-Time
This morning, the government released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December. Almost every piece came exactly as expected. The index fell 0.1% in December. 6.5% year over year. Stripping out food and energy as they do because, let’s face it, who really needs to eat, drive or heat the home, core CPI rose 0.3%. 5.7% year over year. It’s the report that the media made out to be the single most important report ever. They said it could have […]
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Date: January 12, 2023
Markets OK – Jobs & Inflation
Stocks came into 2023 on slippery footing but managed to eke out a gain after the first five days. Yale Hirsch’s Stock Trader’s Almanac had a quaint piece about as goes the first five days of the year, so goes January. And as goes January so goes the year. It all nice and tidy except that it does not stand up to scrutiny this century. I can’t tell you how many times I have heard the pundits tell everyone, “Don’t […]
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Date: January 10, 2023
Why You Should Regularly Update Your Retirement Projections
Retirement planning is an important process that should become a lifelong habit, especially if you are a high-net-worth individual. Given today’s challenging economic and investment environment, it’s even more important to regularly revisit and refine your long-term projections and strategies. Otherwise, you’re driving blindly into the future. Keeping them up-to-date can help ensure that you are prepared for whatever uncertainties may arise in your post-retirement life. This is good because, unfortunately, car accidents, divorces, and lawsuits lack the courtesy to […]
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Date: January 9, 2023
2023 Fearless Forecast – Year of the Bull
Intro to the Fearless Forecast Each and every year, I spend some time in Q4 collecting my thoughts about how I see the next 12 months unfolding in the financial markets, economy, etc. While I do really enjoy looking into my super secret crystal ball as I do throughout the year, I also know that it’s a fairly futile exercise to forecast 12 months out. First, we do not manage client portfolios according to my opinion in any time frame. […]
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Date: January 7, 2023
Santa Did Call – 2023 Should Be Good For All
For the past few weeks I heard pundit after pundit scream about how the Santa Claus Rally (SCR) will fail this year or is failing this year or even crashing. The fact of the matter is that the SCR ended at Wednesday’s close with a gain of 0.81%. That is inarguable fact. Santa Claus came to Broad and Wall so bears will not call, or at least that’s how the botched adage goes. In other words we see no warning […]
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Date: January 5, 2023
Strong & Telling Market Action On The Way – Santa Delivering
2023 is finally here and most in the business will not miss 2022. Good riddance and adios to the most challenging year for stocks and bonds combined since at least the Great Depression. As we turn the page I wish you a 2023 full of good health, happiness, peace and prosperity! I thank you for reading, for questioning and for commenting. I am truly grateful and appreciative. Although I am not one for big resolutions, I will say this; my […]
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Date: January 3, 2023
