More Props For The Bulls
Wednesday was a huge day for the bulls. It started out mildly until Fed Chair Powell spoke with David Wessel from the Brookings Institute. Then the fuse got lit and risk on assets soared. Almost 90% of the day’s volume was in stocks that went up. The Dow Industrials, S&P 500, S&P 400 and NASDAQ 100 all went to new highs for Q4. Only the Russell 2000 lags. Below you can see the percent of stocks in the S&P 500 […]
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Date: December 2, 2022
Slice It How You Want, Yield Curves Point To Recession in 2023
It’s no secret that I have been steadfast this year that the U.S. economy has not been in recession. And yes, I do know that both Q1 and Q2 saw negative GDP growth. It doesn’t matter. That’s not a recession. Sorry. And I am not going to feed into the political nonsense regarding the definition of recession. The National Bureau of Economic Research is the final arbiter of recessions, not politicians nor pundits. Anyway, my economic forecast for 2023 isn’t […]
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Date: November 30, 2022
Seasonal Headwind Today As Black Friday & Cyber Monday Get Weighed
Welcome back to the last week of November. I hope you had a great Thanksgiving! I ate my face off and just finished leftovers this morning for breakfast. I refuse to loosen my belt so it’s going to be an uncomfortable week. My mom and wife went all out with the traditional fare as well as something unusual. Teri makes the single best challah on earth and last week she shaped one into a turkey. Between the Cowboys winning and […]
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Date: November 28, 2022
The Pieces Are Falling Into Place
As I mentioned on Monday this week has a seasonal tailwind, but especially Wednesday and Friday. Then next Monday has a headwind. I found it so interesting that as stocks rallied in broad-based fashion on Tuesday, pundits became so enamored. Since the October 13th bottom, all we have heard was folks selling the bear market rally. Now it seems like pundits pivoted to buying for a year-end rally. I guess after a 12% rally in the S&P 500, the masses […]
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Date: November 23, 2022
Europe & Dow Showing Emerging Index Leadership As Dollar Plummets
Thanksgiving week is here! I love Thanksgiving. I think it’s my favorite holiday. Food, family, football and fun. Markets do too with the week being historically strong. While Monday and Tuesday do not have a tailwind, Wednesday and Friday certainly do. And then one week from today is a seasonally weak day. Since the big bottom in October we know that Europe and NASDAQ 100 rallied the most to the recent highs. S&P 400, emerging markets, Dow Industrials and Russell […]
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Date: November 21, 2022
It’s Tax-Loss Harvest Season
Happy Thanksgiving! I hope your holiday is meaningful, safe and happy. However—with an appreciation for the beloved November holiday—there is another, less celebrated time that we can recognize this year, as well. It is not just harvest season; it’s tax-loss harvest season. In times when even the affluent can be at risk of losing wealth to inflation, that’s a good thing. This article explains these topics: Tax-loss harvesting: what is it & how does it work? Even the affluent need […]
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Date: November 21, 2022
Gridlock Is Good
I spent yesterday in NYC for the first time since early June. And I did something I said I would never do again, or at least for 5 years. I rode the subway, multiple times. I was surprised at how empty it was. I was surprised that people take dogs on now which is against the rules. I was shocked at how many just jumped the turnstile in front of MTA agents and not a single person even flinched. Why […]
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Date: November 18, 2022
The Fall of SBF Continues as Markets Yawn
The FTX news and spectacular collapse of the company and crypto poster boy, Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF), continues. From 10,000 creditors, last I saw it was up t0 1,000,000 creditors. Other crypto firms are being wiped out in the contagion. Thankfully, it seems limited to that sector and is not systemic. SBF is yet another in a long line of supposed transcenders who knew better and ended up in ruin. The Hunt brothers with silver in 1980. Bernie Madoff in 2008. […]
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Date: November 16, 2022
And They Called ME An Idiot
Last week was chock full of news on all fronts. There was something for everyone, including my Cowboys embarrassingly falling apart in the fourth quarter. Inflation, markets, crypto and geopolitics. I intended to cover everything in detail in this video below, but there just wasn’t time although I was able to touch on all topics. And They Called ME An Idiot In one portion of the video above, I forgot to list some high profile and well-heeled big money investors […]
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Date: November 14, 2022
A Crypto Era Ends – And Not Well
Well, well, well. We certainly have too much to cover today. What a few days, culminating with the sensational rags to riches to bankruptcy story of FTX and one of crypto’s most ardent supporters, Sam Bankman-Fried. I’ll say this. A few years ago when I saw him scaling the ranks of crypto architects, I thought he could be one of the posterchilds for crypto and its future blow up. For years I called the whole crypto craze Dotcom 2.0 and […]
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Date: November 11, 2022
