Bulls Need to Gather Themselves Quickly
Let me start off by reiterating that nothing has changed in my outlook on the first half of 2023 or the full year. However, I cannot say I am exactly excited about how stocks have behaved lately. While I do not think it’s anything cataclysmic they do need to start gathering themselves and quickly. A move for anything other than a day below last week’s low would open the door for lower prices and likely give up all of 2023’s […]
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Date: March 1, 2023
Bears Make More Noise – Some Key Actions for the Bulls
The stock market returns from its worst week of 2023 with a higher opening indicated, not exactly what I wanted to see after last week’s drubbing. I would much prefer a lower open that exceeds Friday’s low, stabilizes and then gathers some steam into lunch. The risk is always that the opening range is the high for the day and then sellers come in strongly. The S&P 500 is below and you can see how it rallied to my horizontal, […]
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Date: February 27, 2023
Bears Testing The Downside
The stock market continues to absorb the latest barrage of hotter than expected inflation news from the CPI, PPI and PCE this morning. While stocks and bonds have pulled back, the dollar has rallied. As was my theme in Q4, the stock market needs a softer dollar (see chart below) and 2-Year and 10-Year that do not make new highs for a durable bottom to remain. Right now, that thesis is being tested. The 10-Year yield is below and it […]
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Date: February 24, 2023
Bears Work Not Done – Bonds Key
On Friday the “risk on” markets put in another solid showing in the face of hotter economic news. Any day other than a Friday and I would have been more excited that a little low was forming. Fridays are notoriously poor days to establish a bottom. Markets come back from a nice, three-day weekend with the bears looking to do some damage with pre-market action showing a move beneath Friday’s low. That’s not exactly the warm and fuzzy the bulls […]
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Date: February 21, 2023
How to Recession-Proof Your Retirement Savings
A lot of people have been Googling, “are we headed for a recession?” This is because a growing number of people in the financial industry see a recession this year as inevitable. Opinions vary as to how long it could last or how severe it’s likely to be, but nearly everyone agrees that it’s happening. At this point, it’s more of a question of “how soon” than anything else. However, another good question may be, “Should I be concerned about […]
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Date: February 20, 2023
2-Year & Fed Funds in Harmony Today
More hotter than expected inflation came in on Thursday and several Fed heads were out in the media reinforcing their higher for longer message. While the 2-Year has bounced this month it is currently sitting right on the Fed Funds Rate, meaning temporary perfect equilibrium. The next thing to watch for is when the 2-Year hits 4%. That will confirm the rate hike cycle is officially and firmly over. I expect to see that next quarter. I also want to […]
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Date: February 17, 2023
Recession Crowd Remains Wrong
On Tuesday, the government released the Consumer Price Index which came in a little hotter than expected. Today, we saw that Retail Sales also came in stronger than expected. Once again, the economy remains stronger than expected which is a good thing no matter how the political pundits spin it. Remember last July when recession became political? I wonder what happened to all those nutjobs who were chirping that the U.S. was already in recession. They must be hanging out […]
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Date: February 15, 2023
Dollar, 2-Year & 10-Year Bouncing – Buy Pullback in Stocks
When you strongly dislike both teams in the Super Bowl along with their coaches, you root hard for a great game regardless of who wins. I think everyone would agree it was a great game. Long gone are the years when the NFC would trounce the AFC by 20+ points every year. I am sure all the arm chair coaches are out in full force this morning complaining about time management by the Eagles and referees that wanted that the […]
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Date: February 13, 2023
Rough Few Days for Stocks as Yields Rise
It’s been a rough few days for the stock market. After such a powerful move in January and into February that shouldn’t be a surprise. The other day I wrote that a mild or modest pullback should not shock anyone and should be used as a buying opportunity. Nothing has changed to make me think otherwise. Since Friday’s eye-popping employment report, market-driven interest rates have risen as stocks have declined. Below is the 2-Year Note with the Federal Funds Rate […]
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Date: February 10, 2023
Fireworks at the State of the Union
My thesis has been to buy any and all mild or modest pullbacks in stocks, bonds, gold and Bitcoin. Another opportunity presented itself on Tuesday morning after a small pullback. It certainly looked like Fed Chair Jay Powell’s remarks were going to be taken well and not the start of a more pronounced decline. And I was glad to not be sitting watching when stocks surged and then plunged on the release of his speech. During that time I shared […]
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Date: February 8, 2023
