Stats Still Point Higher for Stocks – Gold Looking at a Bottom Right Here

We have come to the end of the week, the end of the month, the end of the quarter and the end of the first half of 2023. As I continue to remind myself, my grandmother always warned me that the older we get, the faster time flies by. Never let a moment go to waste. My grandmother was a very worldly and wise person. We had this uniquely special relationship. She and my grandfather never conformed and did things because they wanted to, not because it was popular. They were in Cuba when the revolution started. They went to the “Far East” because they wanted to see and learn about the Asian cultures. Anyway, I digress.

As I wrote about earlier this week, the stock market is in the strongest period of the next three months right now. July, August and September are nothing to write home about historically, but this period certainly is. And so far, the bulls have not disappointed. We will see what today brings, but closing June on a high note creates more momentum heading into July for five days. Stat after stat has been bullish, something the bears simply cannot accept.

As June and Q2 close, I don’t want you to think that the markets are all rainbows and unicorns. There are always reasons to be concerned and that’s part of my job. When I run out of worries and markets are partying like it’s 1999, run for the hills! We do know that sentiment is getting a big giddy here, but that alone will not end the bull market. Heck, sometimes, it doesn’t even end a rally. I have been looking for this post-July 4th period to see some pause to digest or mild pullback and that’s still what I am looking at. At the same time I am excited and bullish on gold and the mining stocks right here and right now. I think there is a plausible scenario that says they put in a significant bottom on Thursday.

As you can see in each blog, our various portfolio positions have been changing and I have been pretty clear about my intention to scale back risk into big pushes higher and replant in less volatile areas. I am also a whole lot less patient with new positions than I was in Q4 2022 and Q1 2023 when I was giving positions a lot of leash to move. In the update meetings I have had with clients I am also much more strongly opinionated against adding risk and aggressive strategies and jogging more towards areas that haven’t seen the love yet.

Given the calendar and holiday, I am not sure of my publishing schedule for next week. The office will definitely be open on Monday. The start of a new quarter is always the busiest time of year and I do want a little time to enjoy the holiday and celebrate our independence. If Mother Nature cooperates which she hasn’t all month, I am hoping to play some golf, swim, drop some dead evergreen trees and of course, spend time with my family and friends. Whatever you do, I hope you enjoy and stay safe.

On Wednesday we bought EWT, BIIB, IWP, RYOIX and levered S&P 500. We sold PGJ, ITA, PODD, some KAMAX and some MTUM. On Thursday we bought RYPMX, CALF, FJUN, QJUN and more XLV. We sold QDEC, EMB, levered S&P 500, some FUTY and some ZEOIX.