Fearless Forecast 2026 Part I– The Worst Year For Stocks Since 2022
I have been publishing my Fearless Forecast for more than 30 years. I don’t know many or really any other advisor that sticks their neck out like this year in and year out. That’s one of the many reasons why we are different. I love producing original content, especially when it flies in the face of consensus or conventional wisdom. Our industry has a lot of lazy people who do not do their homework. They do not gather data, analyze […]
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Date: January 15, 2026
Job Growth Meh, Inflation Dead, Cover To Cut, Market Breather
As I mentioned last week, I am traveling to the Sunshine State this week although the weather looks more like my alma mater, Rochester, with gray skies, damp and windy. However, it’s still 80 where Rochester is probably 18. My schedule is off which is why I missed yesterday as I was trying to finish up my 2026 Fearless Forecast. The more research I did, the less negative I became. More on that later this week. Let’s start with my […]
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Date: January 13, 2026
Santa Failed, Bulls Winning and Silver Warning
Sorry I did not publish on Wednesday. Between reconciling December, Q4 and 2025 along with being in IT hell with Microsoft Outlook and trying to serve clients which is my mission, things got crazy. If you happen to be an Outlook savant, please, please email me. FYI, I am traveling south next week so my publishing may be off, especially on Monday with a 6:30am flight. Migraine, here we come! Rumor has it that the Supreme Court is going to […]
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Date: January 9, 2026
Santa Ends Today – Risk On Highway
The Santa Claus Rally ends today. Funny how the media is obsessed with it in December, but doesn’t say boo when the trend comes close to ending. They’re too busy waxing about the “other” 490 stocks right now. Anyway, the S&P 500 needs to close above 6910. If it doesn’t, Santa will have failed to call and below average returns during Q1 or the first half of the year may ensue. More on this later in the week. Today is […]
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Date: January 5, 2026
More Positive Developments Into Year-End & Beyond
I hope everyone who celebrated enjoyed the holidays! My family did our Christmas Eve dinner at the West Dover Inn and then our traditional Christmas night dinner with friends in Vermont as we have done for many, many years. Although many Jews partake in Chinese food and a movie, that option hasn’t been available in the Mount Snow area since the 1990s, much to our dismay. Lunch on the mountain with my family never has a dull moment and Christmas […]
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Date: December 26, 2025
Santa Is Coming To Town
The home stretch is here. I keep hearing that it’s been an unusual or odd year. I don’t really think so. We had the 10%+ correction by July 4th that I forecast. The recovery was way faster than I thought. And everything else just went on its merry way. I will have so much more to say about the year as well as my 2026 Fearless Forecast in the coming weeks. The famed and popular Santa Claus Rally (SCR) begins […]
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Date: December 22, 2025
Historic Expiration, Good Data, Russell To New Highs & Trade Gone Bad
Today is the single largest options expiration in history. While that sounds important, the truth of the matter is that March, June, September and December are always huge expirations with December usually even larger because it is year-end. And as markets grow, so does the use of derivatives, like options. So, the numbers are historic, but not something I am going to worry about since all of these options go bye bye today. Over the last few days, the government […]
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Date: December 19, 2025
Another Set Up For The Bulls
As I discussed this week, the stock market often sees a very mild seasonal soft patch or headwind in mid-December that ends plus or minus five days around options expiration which is this Friday. I was looking for at least one more move lower to increase exposure and that came over the last two days. As always, you can see what we bought and sold at the bottom. The S&P 500 is below and it is setting up for a […]
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Date: December 17, 2025
Minor Pullback To Set Up New Highs
Friday was one ugly day, especially in the popular and sexy AI space which got hit very hard. It is amazing that these one day plunges are so often accompanied by calls of a 10% correction or a bear market or worse. Then stocks recover and the bears hibernate again. Rinse and repeat. I don’t like the fact that a number of key indices got right back to the old highs and failed. And until we see new highs across […]
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Date: December 15, 2025
Fed Delivers – Markets Too – Rally Broadens
Fed cuts. Check. Stocks rally post-2pm. Check. New closing highs in the major indices. Mixed. The Dow Industrials hit new highs. The S&P 500 hit a new closing high but not a new intra-day high. The S&P 400 hit a new closing high but not a fresh intra-day high. The Russell 2000 scored fresh highs on both counts. The NASDAQ 100 failed so far which is an area of concern. The sexy, loved and over-owned AI stocks are being sold […]
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Date: December 12, 2025
