Volatility Up, Small Caps Lead & 3 Year Anniversary
Volatility has certainly increased. From less than 15 to over 22. That’s almost 50% in short order. Stocks are int he midst of the mild pullback I have written about. 2-5% is the range on the downside. Weakness remains buyable. You know where money is going on an index level? The same place I have written about for six months, small caps. Below is a chart showing the small caps relative to the large caps. When the link goes up, […]
Read More
Date: October 15, 2025
Stocks Plunge – Bullish Implications
Friday was an ugly day for risk assets as most saw their largest one day plunges since the tariff tantrum period in April. A pullback has been for a while. 80%+ of the volume was in stocks that declined. What rallied the most was hit the hardest. The QQQ which tracks the NASDAQ 100 saw a volume spike to almost 100 million shares as early, all-time high celebrations reversed when Donald Trump tweeted about hitting China with “massive tariffs”. Whether […]
Read More
Date: October 13, 2025
Gold Is What Folks Should Worry About
Yesterday, I took the train to NYC for my Fox Business segment. As I normally do, I opened my laptop and got to work. While many know me as a serial socializer in life, I am laser focused on work when I travel. So I am working away and the man next to me leans over and says, “buy gold”. And then he adds, “and the AI stuff too”. Now, I don’t know much, but I do know that no […]
Read More
Date: October 10, 2025
Pullback Not A Bubble – How To Manage Positions
Not much new since Monday, just more talk about an AI bubble which continues to be nonsense. I do enjoy reading the tweets and emails about how wrong I am, warning me of impending doom. Same folks who warned me about recession in early April and back in 2022 and 2023 because of inflation. These folks have become excellent contrary indicators. The markets are stretched. 100%. They have grinded and crept higher since mid-April without more than a mild pullback. […]
Read More
Date: October 8, 2025
A “Bubble”?
The news of the day is the OpenAI/AMD deal which is similar to the Nvidia/Intel deal. Both are excellent deals on the surface and win wins. The markets seems to be happy as AMD stock is soaring as is the NASDAQ 100 in pre-market. I am sure there will be more cries that this is the Dotcom Bubble all over again. It’s not. That’s only from lazy, ignorant pundits who don’t do their homework. If I had a nickel for […]
Read More
Date: October 6, 2025
Still In Small Caps – Tesla Turnaround
I am always thankful to the markets gods when I am out of pocket and not much happens, like yesterday and last week with the Jewish holidays. For those who observed, I hope you had an easy and meaningful fast. I made up for the 24 hours of lost time with bagels, lox, cream cheese, ruglah, mimosa, homemade mac n cheese and marble cake. No wonder I had trouble falling asleep. As you know I have been writing about the […]
Read More
Date: October 3, 2025
Conflicting October Stats, Heightened Risk, Dow 50,000 And Something Shutdown
Q4 is here. I always feel like Q3 flies by because it’s summer and the weather is warm. Of course, Q1 crawls by with winter and low daylight. Anyway, we have a number of studies that are relevant to year-end. Let’s start with October. We know that October is one of the few months that performs better when it begins in an downtrend, unlike the present. When the month starts in an uptrend, it shows a slight loss. Getting more […]
Read More
Date: October 1, 2025
Ryder Cup Process Needs To Change
Such an amazing weekend for sports enthusiasts. Yankees and Blue Jays battled down to the wire. Two of the best college football games between GA and AL as well as Penn State and Oregon. Cowboys and Packers play no defense in a 40-40 tie. And of course, the biennial Ryder Cup which I had planned my whole Friday through Sunday around for the past year. Having played golf for 52 years and in hundreds of tournaments, the armchair golfer in […]
Read More
Date: September 29, 2025
The Weakest Week Of The Weakest Month Playing Out
On Monday I wrote that this week was the weakest week of the weakest month of the year. Contrary to what we heard from the media and pundits at the end of August about September, I thought this seasonal trend had a good chance to play out because few people were discussing it. Furthermore, I read an additional study which I wasn’t able to verify until today that showed this and next week being down 90%+ of the time. Again, […]
Read More
Date: September 25, 2025
The Weakest Week Of The Weakest Month Is Here
Remember in late August when the media made a huge deal about the bearishness of September? Yeah. Neither do they. I actually met with someone who first wanted to sell everything he had because he knew it was going to be bad. And then he decided not to invest with us because I wasn’t giving the media’s story any credibility. But I did the research and homework to give you the facts and details. And if you’re keeping score at […]
Read More
Date: September 22, 2025
