Markets Stronger Than Even I Expected
I gotta say that this market is even stronger than I thought in my most bullish scenario. For five months I have been writing about how the tariff tantrum reportedly saw the single greatest mass liquidation by institutions of all-time in dollar terms. And then the masses hated and disavowed the rally right through June before accepting it. I guess I was wrong there. With stocks continuing to grind and creep higher week after week after week, there must an […]
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Date: September 12, 2025
Major Economic News This Week Against Backdrop Of Strong Stock Market
Interesting week so far for economic data. First, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) revised job growth down by 911,000 jobs. That is an epic revision and certainly weakens many narratives and spins about the robustness of the economy. That data was from April 2024 through March 2025. Not shockingly, the politicians have gone dark regarding jobs, and that’s from both sides. This morning, the government released inflation at the producer level. Surprisingly, at least to me, it actually fell […]
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Date: September 10, 2025
Be Careful What You Wish For – But Smalls Caps Are Delivering
Friday saw a strong opening after the less than expected jobs numbers. Think about that. Stocks rallied. Bonds rallied. Gold rallied. And all because of a weaker than expected economic report. Many people would say that is counterintuitive. After all, shouldn’t markets rally on good news and sell off on bad news? Well, that really depends on the market regime. And right now, bad news is good news because it means the Fed is closer to cutting interest rates. I […]
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Date: September 8, 2025
Less Tariffs Now Bad, Weaker Jobs & Finally A Rate Cut
Lots going on to end the week. First, how could I ignore the media’s blame for the big down opening on Tuesday? Remember how every down day in Q1 and early Q2 was because of the prospect of tariffs? And how they would wreck the economy and usher in a new wave of inflation? Yeah. They clearly forgot because all I heard was that stocks were falling because the courts struck down some tariffs and the U.S. needs that revenue. […]
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Date: September 5, 2025
The Ides Of September Or Just Laziness
I often write about seasonality and seasonal trends. I view them as tailwinds or headwinds, but definitely not something to trigger action. I also know that when the media highlights a seasonal pattern it becomes very unlikely to play out. I also know that most people quote seasonality without ever doing the research to confirm what they are saying. It’s also what I write about a lot, laziness. The month of September is here. I have heard from a number […]
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Date: September 3, 2025
Nvidia & Less Government Intervention
I absolutely loved that Nvdia’s earnings did not set off a massive move in the stock. For our models, it makes trading easier when one stock doesn’t have an outsized impact on a given day. As I wrote about the other day, the stock is maturing and the more and more people who own it and focus on it, the less likely we will see surprises and outside the norm reactions. The unintended consequences are that growth rates will also […]
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Date: August 29, 2025
And Here We Go Again – Nvidia Set To Report
We have lots of news floating around from Fed Governor Lisa Cook being fired for mortgage fraud to the government taking an equity stake in Intel to Nvidia reporting earnings after the bell today. Let’s look at Nvidia, the largest company in the stock market, well ahead of Microsoft, Apple and Amazon. Nvidia has had quite a run since the April bottom. From the mid-$80s to $182, that an eye-popping return. I usually prefer highflying stocks to show weakness into […]
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Date: August 27, 2025
Powell Pivoted & Small Caps Loved it
Jay Powell blinked, finally. Powell and the FOMC have been dead wrong according to my work. They were wrong to wait to hike rates and they are wrong in waiting to cut them. Frankly, I always prefer to be a little early than late and forced to play catch up. The markets don’t like and the economy certainly doesn’t like that. On Friday in what was Jay Powell’s likely last speech from the Jackson Hole symposium, he opened the door […]
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Date: August 25, 2025
Powell To Pivot – Markets Poised For More Upside
Fed Chair Jay Powell’s last Jackson Hole speech is here. It’s the only big news event of the week. Markets are expecting a more dovish Powell and an interest rate cut in September. While I do not think Powell will turn fully dovish, I do think he will give the market some of what it wants. With the last inflation report hotter than expected it would be crazy for Powell to ignore it. He also can’t ignore the weakening employment […]
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Date: August 22, 2025
Berkshire Looking Better – NASDAQ 100 Dipping To Buy
Following up on my Berkshire Hathaway comments from Monday’s post, below are weekly charts of the stock followed by it’s performance versus the S&P 500. Recall that there has been lots of chatter about Buffet’s retirement and the stock no longer being an outperformer. In absolute terms below, the stocks chart looks powerful, steadily moving from the lower left to the upper right. Comparing Berkshire to the S&P 500, it’s much noisier. Overall, since 2017, BRK has kept pace to […]
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Date: August 20, 2025
