The Most Bullish Seasonal Set Up In Years – Santa Claus To Call Broad & Wall
For the past few weeks I have discussed that seasonal studies suggested a stock market low by December 20th which coincided with the weekly, monthly and quarterly options expiration. That also happened to be the single largest expiration of all-time. As I also mentioned, while I have been in the mild to modest stock market pullback camp, I was caught off guard by the magnitude of Wednesday’s post-FOMC plunge. After Wednesday’s drop, I thought we needed one more new low […]
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Date: December 23, 2024
Powell Delivers Lump Of Coal – One More New Low Needed
On Wednesday the FOMC cut interest rates by 1/4% as expected. Stocks sold off about 1/2%. Then Jay Powell press conference began. No one seemed to like what Powell was selling. Lots of new uncertainty. Fewer rate cuts. Wait and see. Well all was said and done the “risk on” were battered, bruised and pleading for mercy. While I had been discussing a mild and modest pullback I absolutely did not expect that kind of magnitude on the downside. As […]
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Date: December 21, 2024
FOMC To Cut 1/4% – Bears Still Nibbling
Today is the last FOMC meeting of 2024. Obviously, because it’s December! The market model for the day is plus or minus 0.50% and then a big move post 2pm. The market was setting up a rally after 2pm, but recent action mitigated that trend to a coin flip. There are a few outlier studies that suggest a large selloff on Fed day, but the more mainstream ones are not corroborating. Jay Powell and the FOMC are going to cut […]
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Date: December 18, 2024
Seasonal Trends About To Change
The narrow stock market rally continues along. I think the Dow Industrials have been down something like 8 straight days. Small and mids have to be close. My take on them has clearly been wrong this month. And while there seems to be a reemergence of leadership from large cap growth which we also own, I do think the broad market is going to have its day in the sun beginning this week. A number of seasonal factors turn positive […]
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Date: December 16, 2024
When My Sandwich Guy Advises Me On Bitcoin
The stock market continues to digest and consolidate the recent move to all-time highs. However, everything is not in sync. The S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 behave the best while the Dow Industrials, S&P 400 and Russell 2000 are relative losers. While I thought this would happen, I also thought it would be a Q1 2025 story and not right here. All in all, as you can see below, none of the struggling indices look like death. Rather, they look […]
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Date: December 13, 2024
Pullback! Bears Get More To Chew On
Two straight down days for the stock market. We haven’t seen that since mid-November. The mid and small caps have pulled back more. Seasonally, this is a mild soft patch that lasts into the 20th. Some things I am thinking about into January. Is this just another mild pullback that will lead to new highs on the next push? Or, will stocks bounce over the holidays and roll over harder come January like they did in 2022? Could both scenarios […]
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Date: December 11, 2024
Bears Getting Some Food
Interesting day on Friday. The Dow Industrials were down -.28% while the S&P 500 was up .25% and the NASDAQ 100 up .92%. More stocks went down than went up the NYSE. In the chart below you can see the S&P 500 in the upper panel with the NYSE Advance/Decline Line in the lower panel. See how the S&P has been making a series of new highs? Now look below that at the NYSE A/D. It has been going down […]
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Date: December 9, 2024
Job Growth Report Should Re-Accelerate – Markets Digesting For New Big Run
Today we have the “all-important” employment report which is the last high profile economic data point released before the Fed meets on the 18th. I am usually poor at guessing what the volatile number will be although I sense a quieter number than last month when we had weather and strikes impacting it. The economy should create many more jobs than shown in the last report when it was barely positive. I would think we are looking at greater than […]
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Date: December 6, 2024
Bond Yields Need To Be Watched
I hear lots of folks pointing out flaws in the markets, but I remind people that late Q4 declines from new highs are extremely rare. Cracks usually continue into the new year before any kind of meaningful pullback is seen. Sure, we can get a 2-3% pullback anytime and certainly between now and the 20th. However, you know my thesis. Buy weakness until proven otherwise. Let’s not overthink nor complicate this. Below is the yield on the 10-Year. It had […]
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Date: December 4, 2024
A December Bear – Wait For Godot or Bigfoot?
11 down, 1 to go. December is here. And while Q4 in general during a big up year is when portfolio managers start to chase the market, December is really when the mad dash happens. Similar to 2023 when the masses entered the year bearish, 2024 has had so many managers waiting and hoping for the big decline, the drop that never came. And now, those folks, once again, are concerned about job security as their portfolios widely trail their […]
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Date: December 2, 2024
