Market Needed An Excuse To Pull Back – Israel Provided It
I have recently written about the stock market rallying very far and very fast. A pullback was due. The Volatility Index (VIX) was one clue that some weakness was imminent as it was up the past two days without stocks being down. You may have to squint, but look at the far right side of the chart below to see what I mean. With Israel attacking Iran on Thursday night, the excuse for lower prices came. A 2-4% pullback would […]
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Date: June 13, 2025
Dumb Money Finally Buying Stocks
Smart money usually is early to the rally and then slowly reduces exposure as the dumb money throws in the bearish towel and starts to embrace the market strength. This happens over months and quarters. Rinse and repeat. During the tariff tantrum in early April I noticed that big money was selling at any price while small money was patiently buying the plunge in what was a role reversal. The stock market has come very far and very fast from […]
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Date: June 11, 2025
Goldilocks Came – Media Labeled “Weak” and “Stronger”
On Friday, I offered that an employment report with 125,000 to 150,000 new jobs created in May would be Goldilocks, not too hot and and not too cold. The government reported that the economy created 139,000 new jobs in May, slightly more than expected. Wages also grew more than expected. On the surface this was a solid number given the length of the recovery. However, April and March saw significant downward revisions by 30,000 and 65,000 respectively. Purely speculating, that […]
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Date: June 9, 2025
Geopolitical Nonsense
Thursday was not a quiet day on the news front. Elon Musk fired a shot across the bow and President Trump took the bait, hook, line and sinker to mix metaphors. The market responded by selling Tesla very hard which reversed early gains in the NASDAQ 100 and S&P 500. Think you can guess my next comment? Ignore geopolitical nonsense. Follow the data. The stock market was poised to pullback. The S&P 500 got within a whisker of 6000 which […]
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Date: June 6, 2025
All-Time Highs Already? – Semis Boosting Market
The S&P 500 is now only 3% from all-time highs. Just two months ago the masses were talking about a repeat of the COVID crash or 2008. Few wanted to listen to hugely bullish side of the ledger that I was selling. People laughed when I suggested new highs were coming in late Q4 or early 2026. My timing may be off, but no one can question my bullishness. All the geopolitical nonsense chatter clouded some investors’ thinking into selling […]
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Date: June 4, 2025
Bulls In Charge to Begin June But Greed Is Back
Almost every day in January my wife commented how January is the longest month of the year. It’s as if time slows down. The holidays are over and sunlight is at a minimum. She hates when I don’t even bother to lift the shades in the bedroom. I felt like May was an equally long month. The weather was so crummy in CT. It was like March and November. That all changes as the markets begin June with the bulls […]
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Date: June 2, 2025
The Set Up For A Pullback – Even Nvidia Can’t Help
6 weeks ago, markets would have sold off significantly had President Trump attacked the Chinese regarding violating their trade agreement with the U.S. This morning, stocks are down marginally in the pre-market. Folks can argue that the economic news with cooler inflation and a “miraculously” shrinking trade deficit are more important. And that’s been my point exactly all year. I have hammered that with each successive social media post and press conference regarding tariffs, the markets are becoming more and […]
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Date: May 30, 2025
And Now They’re Off Again
I am rushing to hop on the train to NYC to join my friend, Charles Payne, on Fox Business between 2pm and 3pm so this may be shorter (or not). In the on again, off again tariff saga, the President reversed course on his 50% European tariff threat over the long weekend. And as you can imagine the pre-market trading is strongly higher by roughly 1.50%, wiping out Friday’s losses and then some. My readers know I have long argued […]
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Date: May 27, 2025
Tariff Tantrum Part ?
Here we go again? Kinda? Sorta? Donald Trump was at it again this morning with threats of 50% tariffs on the European Union along with specifically targeting Apple. I remember telling folks after the supposed China “deal” that it wasn’t the end. It was the end of the beginning. And my opinion remains that the worst has been seen on the tariff front. Additionally, I still believe that one day this year we will wake up to bad news on […]
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Date: May 23, 2025
Another U.S. Debt Downgrade – Buy Weakness
The big news of the day is actually what came on Friday right after 4pm. Credit rater Moody’s downgraded the U.S. from AAA to Aa1 in a mostly symbolic move. It is also more than 13 years after S&P began the downgrade process in August 2011. In short, while the move was long overdue and correct, it is stale and pretty much meaningless. Everyone and their dog knows our fiscal path is not sustainable. Politicians are 100% to blame, on […]
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Date: May 19, 2025
