Russia Threatens Nukes – Nvidia The Focus
The major stock market indices are within a solid day or two of all-time highs. From now into January is the most seasonally strong period. On Monday and Tuesday the war in Ukraine escalated with Russia threatening a nuclear response. Although the market fell quickly, buyers rushed in and the bulls had a big day as many scratched their heads. Remember, it’s not what the news is, but how markets react. This story doesn’t appear to be over and more […]
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Date: November 20, 2024
Markets Giving Back Post-Election Boom
I have been saying that 2024 is not 2016 and people should not be expecting the same response. It isn’t a knock on the markets. It’s just how the markets came into the 2016 and 2024 elections. The landscape was very different. 2024 was all about the “haves” and the “have nots”, very similar to how our economy has been since the emergency COVID measures ended. On Friday, almost everything was a “have not” in the stock market. After the […]
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Date: November 18, 2024
Post-Election Market Analysis Of Winners & Losers – What To Buy & Avoid
A new video is up. Post-Election Market Analysis Of Winners & Losers – What To Buy & Avoid On Wednesday we bought more MQQQ and QQQW. We sold SPYB and EMB. On Thursday we bought SPYB. We sold EEM and PDBC.
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Date: November 15, 2024
Participation Not As Strong
The post-election, post-Fed rally has slowed. As I have said, this is nothing like 2016 and I do not believe 2025 will look anything like 2017. Markets sometimes rhyme, but rarely repeat. I don’t think they are even rhyming. Through the middle of October participation in the rally was strong and confirmed the advance. Since then it has weakened as bond proxies that trade on the exchange have been hurt by falling bond prices. The chart below is the S&P […]
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Date: November 13, 2024
Post Rally Continues – Small Caps Poised For ATHs
The post-election, post-Fed rally continued on Friday. It is clear that the election released another round of animal spirits in the markets. While I definitely enjoyed seeing portfolios increase, I have been at this too long to believe this is one of those times to close your eyes and buy everything. And nor do I ever believe the markets are seeing a “new paradigm”. These are not political statements. It’s based on 35 years of experience in the markets. Someone […]
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Date: November 11, 2024
Digesting The Post-Election / Fed Moves
Election out of the way. Fed out of the way. Q3 earnings season mostly over. Not many catalysts for a while. And that’s just the way I like it. Markets need to calm down and digest. Investors’ emotions need to recover. It’s been a whirlwind. As expected the Fed cut interest rates on Thursday and Jay Powell said he would not resign if Trump asked him. Markets didn’t really seem to care. The Fed made a mistake by cutting 0.50% […]
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Date: November 8, 2024
Model Strikes Out – Major Victory – Markets Caught Off Guard – Don’t Buy Everything
Well, so much to cover, so bleary-eyed. I always stay up way too late waiting and then information seems to slow to a crawl. Early in the evening, I watched three independent betting lines and the stock market futures began to move significantly in Trump’s favor. It wasn’t even 9pm yet. That was a tell. Somehow, the markets are usually right. It’s not absolute, but it’s pretty good. Our election model was wrong for the first time since 1992. It’s […]
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Date: November 6, 2024
Markets Looking Bullish Post-Election
Super excited to join my friend, Tim Lammers, on FOX61’s morning show at 10:15am discussing our presidential election model, what the markets are pricing in and which groups will benefit each candidate’s victory. T minus one day until the election. I can’t tell you how happy I will be when it’s over. Goodbye TV ads. Adios SPAM texts and emails. This is probably naive, but I hope kindness and respect return. Last week began the strongest seasonal period of the […]
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Date: November 4, 2024
Election Model Tightens With Weak Employment & Market Selloff
T minus 4 days until the election. I hope to send out emails and/or videos over the weekend and then most days next week. After my last email about our election model I was amazed that people completely ignored my comments and sent me chirping, nasty emails. The model is 100% unemotional. It doesn’t care about policy, opinions, polls nor feelings. It certainly doesn’t care who I am voting for. It simply scores recent economic data along with three time […]
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Date: November 1, 2024
***Q3 Client Update***
A quick update on our presidential election model which has had a strong track record over the years. The model was last wrong in 1992. It has been dusted off and I am running every other day this week. Then I will run it every day into Tuesday. Kamala Harris scores the point for the economy. That’s unlikely to change with the few pieces of data coming out over the coming few days. The stock market times series is not […]
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Date: October 30, 2024
