“A” Significant Low Is In For Stocks – “THE” Bottom Likely 4-8 Weeks Off
When we left off on Wednesday morning which seemed like a year ago, I showed a number of charts that were supportive of the stock market finding “A” bottom earlier this week. I didn’t then and still question whether we’ve “THE” bottom. I doubt it unless the Fed comes in with the nuclear weapons like they did on April 6th 2020. Wednesday’s rally was one for the ages. The stock market rallied more in three hours than the average one […]
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Date: April 11, 2025
Volatility At Historic Highs – Comparing Other Crashes
There is so much to write about today, but I think I will table most of it and do another video this week. I want to start with the volatility which is at historic levels. Spikes like you see below in the chart of the VIX are almost always terminal, meaning the moves go straight up and die. I don’t want to say “never”, but I can’t find nor recall any period in history where the VIX spiked and remained […]
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Date: April 9, 2025
Market Correction Turned Into A Waterfall Invoking 2022 & 2020 – Zone For A Bottom Opens This Week
In last week’s video, I discussed how Thursday’s plunge didn’t look like the decline was complete. Rather, the market needed some more downside and time to attempt to forge a low again. In that thesis, I certainly wasn’t talking about nor expecting the complete rout that happened on Friday where 90% of the volume came in stocks that declined. After very constructive behavior leading up to April 2nd, the two-day, about to be three-day, drop has turned into an emotional, […]
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Date: April 7, 2025
Stock Market Bottom Could Be In As Tariffs Begin
Tariff day is here. Love it or hate it, we have another highly anticipated event after the close. My sentiments have been shared many times. I am firmly against tariffs. All of them. Not just what the U.S. is retaliating for. No one wins a trade war. There are just varying degrees of losers. I hate losing. I heard a Canadian politician on TV this morning saying how much he loved the American people. His beef was only with Donald […]
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Date: April 2, 2025
Here’s The Good News – Stocks Getting Close
Interesting stats to begin the new week. When the stock market decline more than 1% on the 4th Friday of the month the next 7 days are usually up significantly. On top of that, April begins tomorrow and we know that when April starts the month in a downtrend like today, the month averages +2.5%. That’s a powerful seasonal tailwind. Last Wednesday I wrote that I thought it was an opportune time for the bears to come out. I thought […]
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Date: March 31, 2025
Bears Coming Out? Inflation Data Now Partisan
The bounce from the March 13th low continues. That’s good although it should run into some bears this week as it has retraced about 40% of what it lost since February 19th. Recall that my second most likely scenario was a weaker rally that failed somewhere around 6000. It is still too early to say which scenario will play out. We do know that the on again, off again tariff saga remains in full play with April 2nd looming. Long-term […]
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Date: March 26, 2025
Eliminating One Scenario
Since the whole idea of tariffs and trade wars became reality this year, I have said that we will know when the market has fully priced it all in. That day comes when Donald Trump announces some new and large tariffs, but the stock market rallies. That will tell us that the market has moved on to other worries. That day is not today. Stocks saw sharp losses on Friday that were reversed after President Trump waffled again on the […]
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Date: March 24, 2025
Three Scenarios For The Next Few Months
The stock market enters Friday with a very modest gain on the week. However, pre-market looks weak and that gain will likely be wiped away. The bounce from the recent low has been impressive with back to back days where 90% of the volume took place in stocks that went up. But that is not a bell ringing buy signal in the short-term. It does indicate that the majority of the price damage has been done. A good number of […]
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Date: March 21, 2025
***SPECIAL Fed Day Update – Powell Behind The Curve Yet Again – Stocks To New Highs?***
The model for today is plus or minus 0.50% and then a rally after 2pm. It’s a decent signal, but not as good after the bulls rallied stocks into the close. However, any morning weakness towards 0.50% should be bought. Jay Powell and the FOMC are going to leave interest rates unchanged today and likely pivot to dovish with the possibility of a rate cut in May. They SHOULD be cutting rates by 0.25% today and another 0.25% in May […]
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Date: March 19, 2025
“A” Low Has Been Seen
Stocks finally saw a meaningful bounce on Friday. I imagine there were an awful lot of people short the market on Thursday when the S&P 500 breached the recent lows. 90% of the volume came in stocks that went up. Longtime readers may recall that 90% is an historically significant number as it is a confirmation sign of the bulls regaining control. However, before we get too excited that the final bottom is in, this is a process. A 90% […]
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Date: March 17, 2025
