Looking For Downside Confirmation
On Wednesday I wrote some of our models turning down on the stock market and that action would be forthcoming, which it was on our capital appreciation strategies. We jettisoned some laggards and losers and trimmed position sizes in some big winners. Our aggressive strategies remain solidly positive for now. When this happens our strategies usually higher turnover as they jockey around. However, we still need to see downside confirmation before taking more serious protective measures. That looks to be […]
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Date: July 18, 2025
Bears Get Something To Chew On
Stocks have been on a tear. No sane person could argue against that. Pullbacks have been almost nil since mid-April. And volatility? Well, the VIX has been below 20 for a month, signaling an “easier” time to be invested, even with leverage. Remember, VIX above 30 makes it tough to invest. VIX above 40 makes it really difficult to invest. Above that, well, you can fill in the blank. On Tuesday we saw the major stock market indices jump at […]
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Date: July 16, 2025
Looking At Industrials, Transports And Utilities
You know your day (and a Monday) isn’t off on the right foot when you come downstairs and almost go flying as you step with both feet into a puddle that turned out to be dog urine. Then, my Windows 11 upgrade from 10 deleted all search capabilities in Outlook and rendered my planning software useless. Not exactly the best start to the day and week. There was more tariff news over the weekend. On again. Off again. Same story. […]
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Date: July 14, 2025
What My 4 Key Sectors Say
With the stock market or near all-time highs, let’s drill down and focus on my four key sectors to further gauge market health. Recall, we recently looked at new highs and then the NYSE A/D to asses market participation. The semiconductors are first. While they are not yet at new highs, it’s hard to argue that they are lagging or holding the market back. I do expect new highs this year. Banks are next. Remember all those Chicken Littles crying […]
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Date: July 11, 2025
NASDAQ 100 Leading Like A Champ
Another quick blog as I get ready for media today and tomorrow in NYC as well as prepare for our quarterly webinar series tonight at 8pm. The NASDAQ 100 has been leading the rally which is a good thing. As I wrote the other day, new highs have been expanding, also a good thing. The NDX below is but a day from new highs. I cannot believe the only pullback we will see has already been seen this week. That […]
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Date: July 9, 2025
New Highs & New Lows
I hope everyone had a great long July 4th weekend! This is a super quick update as I am trying to wrap up end of month, quarter and half year reconciliation. One of the main complaints from the bears about the rally is that not enough stocks are hitting new highs. And they have been correct. That’s typical of year three in a bull market. However, the chart below shows a resurgence in new highs late last week. While it’s […]
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Date: July 7, 2025
Goldilocks Remains In The House – Bears Decimated
It’s the end of a holiday-shortened week. I love these weeks. Today should be on the quiet side with many folks taking off early or the whole day or the entire week. As you would imagine so much of the geopolitical complaints has totally calmed down. New, all-time highs will do that to folks. My Twitter feed stopped crying about 401Ks turning into 201Ks. As I continue to write, I beg and implore folks to ignore geopolitics when it comes […]
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Date: July 3, 2025
July Begins With Strong Stats
First half of the year is in the books. I will have tons to say about that another time. However, it continues to amaze me how many large and small investors reacted so emotionally in early April during the tariff tantrum and missed out on one of the best quarters in years. It’s so beyond perplexing that supposedly smart people ignored data for so long. As we begin July, we know that the month closes up an average of 1.5% […]
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Date: July 1, 2025
ALL-TIME HIGHS – Let That Sink In
I think this is going to be a quick update as I am grinding on end of month and quarter portfolio work. Almost three months ago as the global markets plunged into the abyss and the masses were screaming about geopolitics and a repeat of 2008, I shared that our studies were 80% in favor of new highs late this year or Q1 2026. And I was almost the lone wolf in that regard. Pervasive chatter about Armageddon was abound. […]
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Date: June 27, 2025
Oil Plunging, Stocks Surging – Exactly What The Pundits Did Not Want
As I wrote about on Monday, there was all kinds of hysteria over the weekend about stocks crashing and oil spiking. Some newly minted experts even said the US would be in recession “within days”. A funny thing happened on the way to a 2008 redux, the markets did the exact opposite. Look at crude oil below on the far right. From $78 to $64 to just two days. An awful lot of dumb money poured into oil right before […]
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Date: June 25, 2025
