New Week, Month and Quarter Begin – Back to Narrowness
As expected, Thursday was a very quiet day in the markets ahead of the long holiday weekend as well as closing out March and Q1. The government released its monthly Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report which is a favorite of the Fed and it showed inflation came in as expected, up 0.3% for the month and 2% for the trailing 12 months. Early last week, I discussed how the week had a strong seasonal tendency to the upside. The S&P […]
Read More
Date: April 1, 2024
The Masses Said Small Caps Were Death & Going To Spiral Lower
Today is the last day of the week, month and quarter as markets are closed in observance of Good Friday. March and Q1 definitely flew by! As a reminder I will be conducting my quarterly webinar on Wednesday at 7:30pm where I review the events of Q1, discuss our strategies and their performance as well as take a sneak peak into what is ahead in Q2. Markets remain very quiet with low volatility. I don’t know why they do this, […]
Read More
Date: March 28, 2024
Volatility Is Depressed But It Should Be
My publishing schedule is a bit off this week and I am not sure when I will publish the rest of the week. My apologies. This week is seasonally strong. Historically, there is an 85%+ chance that the week is up. Those are fairly good odds, but very hard to trade in a vacuum. I am glad our models covered our short trade and increased exposure to the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 into the down day on Monday. Volatility […]
Read More
Date: March 26, 2024
Less Is More In 2024
The model for Fed day could not have been any more perfect. Stocks traded in a narrow range and then saw big moves in both directions before racing higher into the close as Jay Powell confirmed their forecast of interest rate cuts later in the year. Right now, I think he may eat some of those words as inflation remains stubbornly above their 2% target. Recall that I commented on Fox Business that 3% is the new 2% without recession. […]
Read More
Date: March 22, 2024
Fed Has Cover For Rates Cuts But Inflation Not Giving Up
Today is FOMC statement day when their two-day meeting ends and Jay Powell gives his press conference after a statement is released keeping interest rates where they are, commenting on inflation and then letting everyone know that rate cuts are on the way later than sooner. The stock market model for the day is plus or minus 0.50% until 2pm and then a big move or two. Since the outlier banking issues in March 2023, I have said that the […]
Read More
Date: March 20, 2024
Stock Market Trend Morphing As It Weakens
Anyone notice how the gains have moderated lately? The stock market seems to be transitioning from strongly up to modestly up and sideways. Here is the Dow Industrials. Not a lot to criticize nor worry about. Just an observation. Here is the NASDAQ 100. And finally, the Russell 2000. This is how markets digest or mildly correct after a big run. And as I have written for some time, I am looking for a Q1 peak, followed by a low […]
Read More
Date: March 18, 2024
Successful Investors Do Not Sit On Their Hands
Thursday was a day to punish some bulls. Lots of the sexy and glamorous stuff got hit. My readers weren’t surprised as I have been writing about it for weeks and longer. I have spoken about good portfolio management of pruning and planting, cutting exposure and risk and in favor of the boring, stodgy and unloved. I lost count how many times I have written about booking gains in the high flyers, like Nvidia, Facebook, Marvel, Broadcom, Apple, Microsoft and […]
Read More
Date: March 15, 2024
Be a Smart Investor – Don’t Hold On For Dear Life
You have to give credit where it’s due. The bulls have been relentless for almost 18 months, but certainly over the past 5 months. It’s been incredibly impressive and a pleasure to enjoy. These kinds of runs are semi-generational. When I look at our strategy lineup, I don’t recall anything as strong as this nor as widespread in my 35 year career. Granted, it’s not apples to apples because we have 18 strategies today and I started with one single […]
Read More
Date: March 13, 2024
Emotional Reversal on Friday in Tech, Semis and Nvidia
Friday saw one of those emotional reversals where the day began all bulled up with lots of celebrations from those who came late to the party. It ended with the bears overwhelming the bulls heading into the weekend. While those kinds of days look ugly on a chart, we need to see follow through selling early this week to have any significance. Below is the NASDAQ 100 which is dominated by all those popular tech names. Epic run since October. […]
Read More
Date: March 11, 2024
State of The Union & The Markets
It’s amazing how many people ask me about the election and the impact of politics on the markets. I think that’s because all we hear is how the other person is going to wreck the economy and crash the markets. As with most commonly held beliefs, it’s all pure nonsense. There is no correlation to any of this. No single president has ever nor ever will have that kind of impact. Last night was the State of the Union (SOTU). […]
Read More
Date: March 8, 2024
