Green Shoots or Sucker Shoots?
When I get the same few questions often in a short period of time, I assume that lots and lots of folks are thinking the same thing. One of those questions had to do with the impact and the war in the Middle East on the U.S. markets. I have said that I do not believe the current decline in stocks and bonds has much to do with the war. But what about the potential for nuclear war? What if […]
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Date: October 27, 2023
Groping For a Low… Again
The streak was broken! Whether you look at the S&P 500 or the NASDAQ 100, we no longer have to hear about either index being up X straight Mondays. It was certainly an odd phenomena. And my cursory view of Fridays didn’t reveal any “sign of relief” type rally where Thursday and/or Fridays were sold ahead of the weekend. I am sure someone a lot smarter than me can probably find some rationale. The S&P 500 fell below 4200 on […]
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Date: October 25, 2023
Ugly Friday For The Bulls But It IS Monday – Scenario Building For Q4
Friday was an ugly day for the bulls, certainly price-wise. The NASDAQ played downside catch up from what has been an outperforming position. Interestingly, the number of stocks advancing versus declining was the strongest of the past three days. I added a scenario which I thought was almost dead. It’s in light blue below and quickly drawn in. The S&P 500 has some more downside this week to breach the October lows and bottom somewhere around 4200. 4200 is not […]
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Date: October 22, 2023
Short-Term Turns Down – Q4 Studies Still Point Higher
In today’s blog I am going to share some very short-term comments first and then expand those to October and Q4 after the two charts I post. The stock market did not make it back up to the 4400 level I discussed earlier in the week and last week. Rather, it turned south and now appears to be heading towards the 4200 area which coincides with where the decline stopped earlier this month as well as where the popular average […]
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Date: October 20, 2023
Medicare, Social Security and a Drop in Stock Market Risk
Let’s start with some general financial planning tidbits. First, Medicare open enrollment started on October 16th and goes through December 7th. If you are 65 or soon to be 65 or want to change plans, this is for you. Do not delay! This is your annual opportunity. Second, the Social Security Administration just announced that the cost of living adjustment (COLA) for 2024 will be 3.2%. That means your gross social security benefit will rise by 3.2% in 2024. As […]
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Date: October 18, 2023
More Evidence of The Bottom
As you know the time and price targets for a bottom were met. The window for a bottom opened a few weeks ago and it’s hard to argue that a low has not been seen. The only push back the bears can offer is whether or not it was the bottom for Q4. The bears will say it wasn’t while the bulls will say it was. I added a third blue line to the very familiar chart below. It’s highest […]
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Date: October 16, 2023
Better Be Watching The Dollar
With Wednesday’s hotter than expected PPI, the market made it three straight negative news pieces that resulted in a higher stock market. On Thursday, we had a hotter Consumer Price Index (CPI) that ended the streak. While the CPI put a damper on prices it was really the results of the day’s Treasury auction that roiled markets, at least for a few hours. It was yet another auction with less enthusiasm than expected resulting in higher yields. The chart below […]
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Date: October 13, 2023
The Most Bullish Thing a Market Can Do
If you’re keeping score at home, I think we now have three straight pieces of negative news where the stock market reacted positively. First, last Friday’s employment report was very strong which means a more vigilant Fed. Stocks staged a massive reversal to the upside. Then we had the unspeakable Hamas invasion of Israel. Stocks opened sharply lower and closed higher. This morning, the Producer Price Index came in hotter than expected (higher inflation) and markets look to open higher. […]
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Date: October 11, 2023
Big Gains on Friday – Bell Ringing?
The horrific and barbaric events of the weekend in Israel by Hamas will certainly overshadow the markets’ short-term trends. I was surprised that Israel’s stock market did not close down more than the 7% it did on Sunday. Our market isn’t even indicating a give back of the big gains on Friday. And FYI, the bond market is closed for the federal holiday today. On Friday the government released employment data for September. Job growth was well beyond expectations, but […]
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Date: October 9, 2023
Still Waiting For The Bottom to Line Up
Thank you to those who attended last night webinar where we discussed the events of Q3, reviewed performance of our strategies and took a sneak peak at Q4. The stock market surely is taking its time getting to wherever it is going. Both time and price windows are open, but the indices have calmed over the past few days. That’s not typically the behavior seen if the ultimate bottom was just hammered in. So, in all likelihood, there should be […]
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Date: October 6, 2023
