It Wasn’t Easy But The Bottom Came In As Expected
Good morning from Chicago, one of my favorite cities to visit where the weather is very mild and pleasant in contrast to my visit to South Carolina last week where I woke up to 34 and cold. Go figure. I am in town for the annual National Association of Active Investment Managers Outlook conference where I have proudly been in leadership for more years than I can remember. It’s a trade association very near and dear to my heart as […]
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Date: November 6, 2023
Powerful 5 Day Run For The Bulls
Sorry for the delay in getting this out. I had an early morning flight from South Carolina back to CT after visiting clients and the WIFI on the plane did not work. I flew Spirit because it was the only nonstop flight. 12 years ago, I swore I would never do that again after they tested charging to use the bathroom. I thought that was beyond absurd. I broke my promise to myself and I will not be doing that […]
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Date: November 3, 2023
***Fed Rate Hike Cycle Over – Early Signs of Recession Growing***
Let’s start this Fed update with the trends. The model for the day should be familiar by now. Look for the stock market to be plus or minus 0.50% until 2pm and then a big move. Had stocks not rallied smartly over the past two days, it would have been one of those rare, all in days where the trend’s accuracy is over 90%. Still, the post-2pm move favors the bulls into the close. The FOMC is not going to […]
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Date: November 1, 2023
Some Things That Bother Me About The Stock Market
Friday was an odd day. The Dow Industrials, S&P 400 and Russell 2000 were all down more than 1% while the S&P 500 was down about half that and the NASDAQ 100 was up 0.50%. The net number of stocks advancing was -1400 which was bearish. Markets rarely bottom on Friday so we look for the next attempt at a low early this week. To change it up, let me offer several things I do not like. First, I continue […]
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Date: October 30, 2023
Green Shoots or Sucker Shoots?
When I get the same few questions often in a short period of time, I assume that lots and lots of folks are thinking the same thing. One of those questions had to do with the impact and the war in the Middle East on the U.S. markets. I have said that I do not believe the current decline in stocks and bonds has much to do with the war. But what about the potential for nuclear war? What if […]
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Date: October 27, 2023
Groping For a Low… Again
The streak was broken! Whether you look at the S&P 500 or the NASDAQ 100, we no longer have to hear about either index being up X straight Mondays. It was certainly an odd phenomena. And my cursory view of Fridays didn’t reveal any “sign of relief” type rally where Thursday and/or Fridays were sold ahead of the weekend. I am sure someone a lot smarter than me can probably find some rationale. The S&P 500 fell below 4200 on […]
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Date: October 25, 2023
Ugly Friday For The Bulls But It IS Monday – Scenario Building For Q4
Friday was an ugly day for the bulls, certainly price-wise. The NASDAQ played downside catch up from what has been an outperforming position. Interestingly, the number of stocks advancing versus declining was the strongest of the past three days. I added a scenario which I thought was almost dead. It’s in light blue below and quickly drawn in. The S&P 500 has some more downside this week to breach the October lows and bottom somewhere around 4200. 4200 is not […]
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Date: October 22, 2023
Short-Term Turns Down – Q4 Studies Still Point Higher
In today’s blog I am going to share some very short-term comments first and then expand those to October and Q4 after the two charts I post. The stock market did not make it back up to the 4400 level I discussed earlier in the week and last week. Rather, it turned south and now appears to be heading towards the 4200 area which coincides with where the decline stopped earlier this month as well as where the popular average […]
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Date: October 20, 2023
Medicare, Social Security and a Drop in Stock Market Risk
Let’s start with some general financial planning tidbits. First, Medicare open enrollment started on October 16th and goes through December 7th. If you are 65 or soon to be 65 or want to change plans, this is for you. Do not delay! This is your annual opportunity. Second, the Social Security Administration just announced that the cost of living adjustment (COLA) for 2024 will be 3.2%. That means your gross social security benefit will rise by 3.2% in 2024. As […]
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Date: October 18, 2023
More Evidence of The Bottom
As you know the time and price targets for a bottom were met. The window for a bottom opened a few weeks ago and it’s hard to argue that a low has not been seen. The only push back the bears can offer is whether or not it was the bottom for Q4. The bears will say it wasn’t while the bulls will say it was. I added a third blue line to the very familiar chart below. It’s highest […]
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Date: October 16, 2023
