Weakest Week Of The Year Is Here – Fed Wrong
The Fed slashed interest rates for the first time since March 2020. While I thought 1/4% was best for an initial move, a very confident Jay Powell thought otherwise. I tried reminding him that the last two times the Fed began with a 1/2% cut didn’t end so well. One was January 2001 and stocks plummeted another 40% with recession hitting post-9/11. The other was September 2007. The bull market peaked a month later and then collapsed 58% into March […]
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Date: September 23, 2024
***SPECIAL Fed Update – 1/4 Point Best – A Look At The Last 35 Years Of New Cutting Cycles***
The stock market model for the day is plus or minus 0.50% and then a rally after 2pm. However, with the S&P 500 being up 6 straight days into the Fed meeting, much of the energy has already been used and the study has been reduced to a coin flip. Additionally, a potential set up for a decline may be in play after the Fed meeting. The FOMC is going to cut interest rates for the first time since March […]
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Date: September 18, 2024
Russell Catching Up – No Unicorns Nor Rainbows Elsewhere
The bulls completed last week with another bang. It was a good and fun week in bull land. The Russell 2000 small caps were the big stars. Recall that I offered them as well as the S&P 400 as good opportunities to play catch up. While it’s great to see, I have enough battle scars from chasing these guys to last a lifetime. So many times over the past decade, the Russell has quickly melted higher only to be hit […]
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Date: September 16, 2024
Small & Mids Offer “Value” Here
Wednesday saw an unusually strong reversal from early losses to gains. I saw lots of folks commenting about the last time we saw -1%+ losses turn into +1%+ gains was right at the bear market low in October 2022. To me, that’s irrelevant. Stocks had declined 20-30% in 2022 and in 2024 they were just a few percent from all-time highs. Context. People arguing that another bull market blast off of 20%+ is here is absurd. With that said, the […]
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Date: September 13, 2024
Economy Weaker – Inflation Should Cool – Harris’ Debate
Today is 9-11. With the presidential debate last night and inflation today, I fear that remembrance will be downplayed today. That’s sad and disappointing. One of my childhood and high school friends along with a fraternity brother were murdered that day. Most of us know someone who was killed or knows someone who knows someone who was killed. On behalf of our clients Heritage Capital continues to support the great work done by The Tunnels to Towers organization. Never Forget… […]
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Date: September 11, 2024
Pullback Not Over – More Selling To Come – Dow Theory Has Been Warning
Stocks sold off hard for the second straight employment report. Recall that the mini-crash was August 5th which was on the heels of an ugly day for the bulls, the monthly jobs report. It remains September which is a seasonally poor period and we have the election overhang. Friday was ugly. The bulls can’t spin it any other way. The markets are on their way to oversold and then setting up for a good Q4, but they are not there […]
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Date: September 9, 2024
Was It Just a Bounce From the August Mini-Crash?
Two things we know. September is the worst month of the year from a seasonal perspective. And September to mid-October is seasonally weak in election years. Two weeks ago I mentioned that if the NASDAQ 100 and semiconductors were about to fail, it was going to get ugly in the short-term. I think it’s safe to say that they have failed as you can see both charts below. With the two negative seasonal patterns and the failure, both the semis […]
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Date: September 6, 2024
Friday Was All About Window Dressing & Month-End Mark Up
Welcome back from the kinda, sorta end of summer. I hope you had lots of fun with family and friends. We saw friends Friday night, went to a really fun 50th party on Saturday and had a huge BBQ on Sunday. I tested out my 69 day rested shoulder on Monday without any issues. What a relief. I was so happy. Friday was month-end and ahead of a long weekend. My sense is that liquidity was poor and there was […]
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Date: September 3, 2024
No Stock Market Crash From Nvidia
The stock market keeps surviving each event the media makes into potential Armageddon. On Wednesday, I wrote about Nvidia and the likelihood for a move outside of $131 and $123. That came in the form of a less than perfectly stellar report and sharp move on heavy volume to the downside. Smart money knew the odds. For now, I think rallies above $121 are selling opportunities. Super Micro crashed even more. Almost 100% of the AI gains have been wiped […]
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Date: August 30, 2024
It’s All About Nvidia Today – BE CAREFUL
Nvidia reports reports earnings late this afternoon. I will be happy to get this done since all anyone is focused on is this report. I mean, it’s important, but it is certainly not the end all, be all. While we have plenty of positions in the NASDAQ 100, which will be directly impacted, we also own large cap value, small caps, financials, biotech, staples, REITs and plenty of other things that have absolutely no correlation to Nvidia or AI or […]
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Date: August 28, 2024
