Pullback! Bears Get More To Chew On
Two straight down days for the stock market. We haven’t seen that since mid-November. The mid and small caps have pulled back more. Seasonally, this is a mild soft patch that lasts into the 20th. Some things I am thinking about into January. Is this just another mild pullback that will lead to new highs on the next push? Or, will stocks bounce over the holidays and roll over harder come January like they did in 2022? Could both scenarios […]
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Date: December 11, 2024
Bears Getting Some Food
Interesting day on Friday. The Dow Industrials were down -.28% while the S&P 500 was up .25% and the NASDAQ 100 up .92%. More stocks went down than went up the NYSE. In the chart below you can see the S&P 500 in the upper panel with the NYSE Advance/Decline Line in the lower panel. See how the S&P has been making a series of new highs? Now look below that at the NYSE A/D. It has been going down […]
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Date: December 9, 2024
Job Growth Report Should Re-Accelerate – Markets Digesting For New Big Run
Today we have the “all-important” employment report which is the last high profile economic data point released before the Fed meets on the 18th. I am usually poor at guessing what the volatile number will be although I sense a quieter number than last month when we had weather and strikes impacting it. The economy should create many more jobs than shown in the last report when it was barely positive. I would think we are looking at greater than […]
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Date: December 6, 2024
Bond Yields Need To Be Watched
I hear lots of folks pointing out flaws in the markets, but I remind people that late Q4 declines from new highs are extremely rare. Cracks usually continue into the new year before any kind of meaningful pullback is seen. Sure, we can get a 2-3% pullback anytime and certainly between now and the 20th. However, you know my thesis. Buy weakness until proven otherwise. Let’s not overthink nor complicate this. Below is the yield on the 10-Year. It had […]
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Date: December 4, 2024
A December Bear – Wait For Godot or Bigfoot?
11 down, 1 to go. December is here. And while Q4 in general during a big up year is when portfolio managers start to chase the market, December is really when the mad dash happens. Similar to 2023 when the masses entered the year bearish, 2024 has had so many managers waiting and hoping for the big decline, the drop that never came. And now, those folks, once again, are concerned about job security as their portfolios widely trail their […]
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Date: December 2, 2024
Bears Still Wrong – 47,000 Up Next
I am planning on a number of timely year-end financial and tax strategy blogs next month. I am always amazed at how few financial advisors do their jobs properly and look out for clients’ best interests as year-end approaches. Now is not the time to get lazy. The strong pre-Thanksgiving seasonal trend looks to be a bit mitigated this year. The markets remain on solid footing, but we didn’t have any weakness to set it up better. The chart below […]
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Date: November 27, 2024
Tailwinds Are Here
I am just back from CA and that was a long trip home late last night. Friends, food and fun. I did get to binge the full second season of The Diplomat which I highly recommend. I also watched some of Industry season two which is a bit dark and not enough action for me. The Eagles played on Sunday night and I since I so dislike them, I couldn’t stand to watch the whole game. Let’s start with the […]
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Date: November 25, 2024
Russia Threatens Nukes – Nvidia The Focus
The major stock market indices are within a solid day or two of all-time highs. From now into January is the most seasonally strong period. On Monday and Tuesday the war in Ukraine escalated with Russia threatening a nuclear response. Although the market fell quickly, buyers rushed in and the bulls had a big day as many scratched their heads. Remember, it’s not what the news is, but how markets react. This story doesn’t appear to be over and more […]
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Date: November 20, 2024
Markets Giving Back Post-Election Boom
I have been saying that 2024 is not 2016 and people should not be expecting the same response. It isn’t a knock on the markets. It’s just how the markets came into the 2016 and 2024 elections. The landscape was very different. 2024 was all about the “haves” and the “have nots”, very similar to how our economy has been since the emergency COVID measures ended. On Friday, almost everything was a “have not” in the stock market. After the […]
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Date: November 18, 2024
Post-Election Market Analysis Of Winners & Losers – What To Buy & Avoid
A new video is up. Post-Election Market Analysis Of Winners & Losers – What To Buy & Avoid On Wednesday we bought more MQQQ and QQQW. We sold SPYB and EMB. On Thursday we bought SPYB. We sold EEM and PDBC.
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Date: November 15, 2024
