Markets Stronger Than Even I Expected
I gotta say that this market is even stronger than I thought in my most bullish scenario. For five months I have been writing about how the tariff tantrum reportedly saw the single greatest mass liquidation by institutions of all-time in dollar terms. And then the masses hated and disavowed the rally right through June before accepting it. I guess I was wrong there. With stocks continuing to grind and creep higher week after week after week, there must an […]
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Date: September 12, 2025
Major Economic News This Week Against Backdrop Of Strong Stock Market
Interesting week so far for economic data. First, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) revised job growth down by 911,000 jobs. That is an epic revision and certainly weakens many narratives and spins about the robustness of the economy. That data was from April 2024 through March 2025. Not shockingly, the politicians have gone dark regarding jobs, and that’s from both sides. This morning, the government released inflation at the producer level. Surprisingly, at least to me, it actually fell […]
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Date: September 10, 2025
Be Careful What You Wish For – But Smalls Caps Are Delivering
Friday saw a strong opening after the less than expected jobs numbers. Think about that. Stocks rallied. Bonds rallied. Gold rallied. And all because of a weaker than expected economic report. Many people would say that is counterintuitive. After all, shouldn’t markets rally on good news and sell off on bad news? Well, that really depends on the market regime. And right now, bad news is good news because it means the Fed is closer to cutting interest rates. I […]
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Date: September 8, 2025
Less Tariffs Now Bad, Weaker Jobs & Finally A Rate Cut
Lots going on to end the week. First, how could I ignore the media’s blame for the big down opening on Tuesday? Remember how every down day in Q1 and early Q2 was because of the prospect of tariffs? And how they would wreck the economy and usher in a new wave of inflation? Yeah. They clearly forgot because all I heard was that stocks were falling because the courts struck down some tariffs and the U.S. needs that revenue. […]
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Date: September 5, 2025
The Ides Of September Or Just Laziness
I often write about seasonality and seasonal trends. I view them as tailwinds or headwinds, but definitely not something to trigger action. I also know that when the media highlights a seasonal pattern it becomes very unlikely to play out. I also know that most people quote seasonality without ever doing the research to confirm what they are saying. It’s also what I write about a lot, laziness. The month of September is here. I have heard from a number […]
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Date: September 3, 2025
Nvidia & Less Government Intervention
I absolutely loved that Nvdia’s earnings did not set off a massive move in the stock. For our models, it makes trading easier when one stock doesn’t have an outsized impact on a given day. As I wrote about the other day, the stock is maturing and the more and more people who own it and focus on it, the less likely we will see surprises and outside the norm reactions. The unintended consequences are that growth rates will also […]
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Date: August 29, 2025
And Here We Go Again – Nvidia Set To Report
We have lots of news floating around from Fed Governor Lisa Cook being fired for mortgage fraud to the government taking an equity stake in Intel to Nvidia reporting earnings after the bell today. Let’s look at Nvidia, the largest company in the stock market, well ahead of Microsoft, Apple and Amazon. Nvidia has had quite a run since the April bottom. From the mid-$80s to $182, that an eye-popping return. I usually prefer highflying stocks to show weakness into […]
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Date: August 27, 2025
Powell Pivoted & Small Caps Loved it
Jay Powell blinked, finally. Powell and the FOMC have been dead wrong according to my work. They were wrong to wait to hike rates and they are wrong in waiting to cut them. Frankly, I always prefer to be a little early than late and forced to play catch up. The markets don’t like and the economy certainly doesn’t like that. On Friday in what was Jay Powell’s likely last speech from the Jackson Hole symposium, he opened the door […]
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Date: August 25, 2025
4 Ways a Fee-Only Advisor in New Haven Can Help Build Wealth
You’ve spent years accumulating personal wealth so that you may have over $1 million in retirement and non-retirement savings today. After four decades of work, your retirement date is finally getting close. Maybe it’s two years away. Maybe five. Either way, you’re starting to think seriously about how your different sources of retirement income will support you when the paychecks stop. Then, without much warning, the stock market suddenly plunges steeply. Who knows how long the decline will last or […]
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Date: August 25, 2025
Powell To Pivot – Markets Poised For More Upside
Fed Chair Jay Powell’s last Jackson Hole speech is here. It’s the only big news event of the week. Markets are expecting a more dovish Powell and an interest rate cut in September. While I do not think Powell will turn fully dovish, I do think he will give the market some of what it wants. With the last inflation report hotter than expected it would be crazy for Powell to ignore it. He also can’t ignore the weakening employment […]
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Date: August 22, 2025
Berkshire Looking Better – NASDAQ 100 Dipping To Buy
Following up on my Berkshire Hathaway comments from Monday’s post, below are weekly charts of the stock followed by it’s performance versus the S&P 500. Recall that there has been lots of chatter about Buffet’s retirement and the stock no longer being an outperformer. In absolute terms below, the stocks chart looks powerful, steadily moving from the lower left to the upper right. Comparing Berkshire to the S&P 500, it’s much noisier. Overall, since 2017, BRK has kept pace to […]
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Date: August 20, 2025
Volatility About To Spike With Fed Meeting?
Although it’s August with the markets in full summer doldrum mode, the Fed is meeting this week in their annual Jackson Hole retreat where we should get a very clear picture about the potential for a rate cut in September. Markets are pricing in an almost certainty of this. More on Wednesday. Volatility remains depressed at the 15 level which is very typical during a mature bull market. Until proven otherwise, forays above 20 are buying opportunities for stocks. There […]
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Date: August 18, 2025
Retirement Planning and the One Big Beautiful Bill
This blog post examines the “One Big Beautiful Bill” (OBBB) and its potential influence on your tax and investment strategies, both currently and in the future. This information is particularly relevant if you are nearing retirement or are already retired with at least $500,000 in investable assets. As you shift from saving for retirement to taking distributions from your retirement assets, various tax liabilities come into play. Your goal should be to preserve as many assets as possible to sustain […]
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Date: August 18, 2025
Inflation Soars At The Producer Level – Stocks & Bonds Don’t Crash
While inflation at the consumer level was tame in July, it soared at the producer level to numbers not seen since 2022. Pundits and the media had exaggerated initial reactions with all kinds of narratives being spun. I was suspicious. That kind of spike did not add up for me. While I have been saying that a warmer month or two was to be expected, July was hot. I also wanted to see how bad the markets reacted. With that […]
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Date: August 15, 2025
Volatility Nice, Markets Solid, Inflation Tame
I guess the dog days of summer have firmly set in for the markets. It wasn’t long ago when volatility as measured by the VIX was at historic extremes above 60. It’s been in the teens for most of the summer and heading lower. VIX below 20 is a relatively easy environment to invest in when compared to the 30s, 40s, 50s and higher. However, never forget that high volatility almost always leads to lower volatility and vice versa. It’s […]
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Date: August 12, 2025
Lots Of Opps Building
After the two-day reversal and pullback, stocks have bounced, getting close to the area where they should fail if they are going to fail. I still think the lows from last week will be exceeded this quarter, but like everything else, I will not die on that hill. The other day I posted a chart of stock making new 52-week lows to see how much deterioration was under the surface. Someone asked about stocks making new highs. Here it is […]
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Date: August 8, 2025
Looking For More Downside
The major stock market indices saw sharp reversals last Thursday. And there was a whole single day of follow through on Friday. So far, that’s been it. We are currently seeing a bounce from that little pullback. I still think there should be more downside this quarter, but I am certainly not going to die on that hill. In a perfect world, the bounce ends this week and then we see a move below last week’s low. Looking at the […]
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Date: August 6, 2025
Menagerie Of News To End Last Week
***NOTE: I thought this was sent out on Monday morning. It turns out that the blog’s platform crashed and I didn’t know until today. Lots happened last week, especially to end the week. I am happy to have finished my Q2 report to clients and then enjoyed some golf time in Scotland with 7 friends playing the best the country has to offer. My travel mates and the wait staff thought I was unusual when I broke out my laptop […]
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Date: August 5, 2025
***Q2 Client Update***
The second quarter of 2025 was one of those rare and very interesting periods on more than one front. However, the quarter really played out as the first few weeks of April and then the rest of the quarter. The world came into Q2 acutely focused on what President Trump deemed “Liberation Day”, that day when the administration’s trade policy was going to free the U.S. from its dependence on much of its international trade as well as level the […]
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Date: August 1, 2025
Is Healthcare Inflation Threatening Your Retirement Plan?
Rising healthcare costs are forcing many high-net-worth individuals to reevaluate their retirement plan strategies. Even if you have $500,000 or more in investable assets, you may wonder: Will healthcare eat away at the retirement assets I’ve worked so hard to accumulate? One of the biggest threats today is the growing and often underestimated cost of healthcare in retirement, particularly in the latter years when there is a possibility for Assisted Living, Skilled Nursing, or Memory Care. In this article, we’ll […]
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Date: July 31, 2025
