S&P 500 Poised For New Highs
Price-wise, the bulls had another good day on Friday with the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 leading the way to sizable gains. It was a strong five days for the bulls coming off meeting my minimum downside target last Monday. To poke holes, after the open, price didn’t do anything. It just meandered about most of the day. And there were only 600 more stocks going than down on a solid rally. That number should have been higher. Let’s also […]
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Date: January 21, 2025
Fearless Forecast 2025 – The Year Momentum Died
I have been publishing my Fearless Forecast for more than 30 years. I don’t know many or really any other advisor that sticks their neck out like this year in and year out. That’s one of the many reasons why we are different. I love producing original content, especially when it flies in the face of consensus or conventional wisdom. Our industry has a lot of lazy people. I don’t know how individual investors tolerate and accept the regurgitation of […]
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Date: January 20, 2025
So Far So Good For The Bulls
Since my minimum downside target was met on Monday the bulls’ response has been solid across the major stock market indices. All have rallied smartly. Below are the S&P 500 and Russell 2000. While the former looks to be in better shape than the latter, the Russell has more upside potential simply because it sold off the most. Several things still bother me. Sentiment never fully cycled to bearish although market internals did. I don’t love the leadership set up […]
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Date: January 17, 2025
Minimum Downside Met – Banks Teed Up Into Earnings
The S&P 500 met my minimum downside target for a low because it breached the December lows and closed below them as well. However, that doesn’t mean the bottom is in for sure. We just have to watch and see how the market behaves. This is not one of those bell-ringing, close your eyes and buy situation. I think that happens either later this quarter or later this year. In the chart below of the S&P 500 you can see […]
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Date: January 15, 2025
7 Retirement Dos and Don’ts for High-Net-Worth Individuals
We at Heritage Capital assist high-net-worth individuals in navigating the increasingly complex issues of retirement. Whether crafting a multigenerational wealth strategy or aligning investments with retirement goals, we tailor our services to fit your special needs. Our goal is to help you pursue financial independence while preserving and growing your wealth. Our team, led by Paul Schatz, holder of the Accredited Investment Fiduciary (AIF®) Designation, is dedicated to providing you with the best strategies for retirement planning. Based in Woodbridge, […]
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Date: January 13, 2025
Stocks Break Down – Plenty Of Reasons To Support Bull Market
After the economy created 100,000 more jobs than expected, stocks and bonds decided that was bad news and promptly sold off. Makes sense, right? No, it really doesn’t although as I wrote about on Friday it is because the perception is now less help from the Fed. I have also been waiting to see if stocks poked to new highs first and then we could sell or if they fell below December’s low which would hasten a buying opportunity. The […]
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Date: January 12, 2025
New Jobs Soar – Markets May Not Like That
The government released the December employment report this morning. Surprisingly, the economy created 100,000 more new jobs than economists forecast. This is great news on the surface that the economy continues to hum along. It also speaks volumes to the lack of forecasting ability by economists with this very volatile monthly number. Here’s the problem. The current market regime is that good news is bad news because the Fed will provide less accommodation through lower rates. So while the economy […]
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Date: January 11, 2025
Bears Thwart Bulls To Own The Edge
The S&P 500 remains in the same trading range I have been discussing. On Monday I thought the bulls had the ball and would run to at least 6050 before the bears would start to fight. The bulls lost steam on the way and the bears pounded in a big way on Tuesday. We also saw more significant selling on Tuesday, especially in the tech sector. For now, we have to sit back and tolerate the frustration of not having […]
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Date: January 8, 2025
Who Sucked $330 Billion Out Of The Markets?
As we now have confirmation, the Santa Claus Rally failed in 2024. I will dig up the stats about the negativity for Q1 and report back shortly. Here is what I learned over the weekend from my friend Rob Hanna of Quantifiable Edges about the last week of December which is always ripe for massive portfolio games. It’s kinda wonky but I will give you the high level view. First, the Fed sold more than $30 billion of securities from […]
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Date: January 6, 2025
New Year, New Resolutions: Financial Planning for Retirees in Connecticut 2025
As we enter 2025, retirees in Connecticut have a unique opportunity to reassess and refine their financial strategies to better achieve their retirement goals amidst the state’s specific economic landscape. Goal setting is crucial, especially for Connecticut retirees facing unique financial challenges and opportunities. Financial resolutions tailored to the state’s economic landscape can significantly protect your future. A new year is a terrific time to reassess your financial situation and take positive steps toward improvement. Heritage Capital, the leading provider […]
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Date: January 6, 2025
Looks Like The Grinch Won
While there is still one day left in the famed Santa Claus Rally (SCR), the S&P 500 would need to close above 5974. That’s a tall task given that it closed at 5869 last night. Assuming we don’t see a 100 point rally the SCR failure would usher in some bearish studies for Q1. I will touch on those next week. For sure, detractors will claim that the SCR failed last year and 2023 was a monster year so we […]
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Date: January 3, 2025
Santa Leaving Coal
The Santa Claus Rally (SCR) was teed up beautifully as I wrote last week. The markets had that one-day plunge from Jay Powell’s less than stellar press conference and the bears followed through the next day to a small degree. Then we had that emotional reversal 9 days ago on the largest expiration of derivatives of the year and I think of all-time. As we know from decades in the markets, just because something looks perfect it doesn’t mean that […]
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Date: December 30, 2024
Creating a Sustainable Retirement Lifestyle
Retirement should be a time to enjoy the rewards of your hard work, but one question often on the minds of most retirees: Will my money last? For many retirees, the ultimate goal is creating a lifestyle that balances comfort and financial security without unnecessary stress. Yet, the financial world is unpredictable. Market volatility and rising costs disrupt even the best-laid plans. That’s why building a sustainable retirement lifestyle is vital. It’s not just about saving enough—it’s about managing your […]
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Date: December 23, 2024
The Most Bullish Seasonal Set Up In Years – Santa Claus To Call Broad & Wall
For the past few weeks I have discussed that seasonal studies suggested a stock market low by December 20th which coincided with the weekly, monthly and quarterly options expiration. That also happened to be the single largest expiration of all-time. As I also mentioned, while I have been in the mild to modest stock market pullback camp, I was caught off guard by the magnitude of Wednesday’s post-FOMC plunge. After Wednesday’s drop, I thought we needed one more new low […]
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Date: December 23, 2024
Powell Delivers Lump Of Coal – One More New Low Needed
On Wednesday the FOMC cut interest rates by 1/4% as expected. Stocks sold off about 1/2%. Then Jay Powell press conference began. No one seemed to like what Powell was selling. Lots of new uncertainty. Fewer rate cuts. Wait and see. Well all was said and done the “risk on” were battered, bruised and pleading for mercy. While I had been discussing a mild and modest pullback I absolutely did not expect that kind of magnitude on the downside. As […]
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Date: December 21, 2024
FOMC To Cut 1/4% – Bears Still Nibbling
Today is the last FOMC meeting of 2024. Obviously, because it’s December! The market model for the day is plus or minus 0.50% and then a big move post 2pm. The market was setting up a rally after 2pm, but recent action mitigated that trend to a coin flip. There are a few outlier studies that suggest a large selloff on Fed day, but the more mainstream ones are not corroborating. Jay Powell and the FOMC are going to cut […]
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Date: December 18, 2024
Seasonal Trends About To Change
The narrow stock market rally continues along. I think the Dow Industrials have been down something like 8 straight days. Small and mids have to be close. My take on them has clearly been wrong this month. And while there seems to be a reemergence of leadership from large cap growth which we also own, I do think the broad market is going to have its day in the sun beginning this week. A number of seasonal factors turn positive […]
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Date: December 16, 2024
When My Sandwich Guy Advises Me On Bitcoin
The stock market continues to digest and consolidate the recent move to all-time highs. However, everything is not in sync. The S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 behave the best while the Dow Industrials, S&P 400 and Russell 2000 are relative losers. While I thought this would happen, I also thought it would be a Q1 2025 story and not right here. All in all, as you can see below, none of the struggling indices look like death. Rather, they look […]
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Date: December 13, 2024
Pullback! Bears Get More To Chew On
Two straight down days for the stock market. We haven’t seen that since mid-November. The mid and small caps have pulled back more. Seasonally, this is a mild soft patch that lasts into the 20th. Some things I am thinking about into January. Is this just another mild pullback that will lead to new highs on the next push? Or, will stocks bounce over the holidays and roll over harder come January like they did in 2022? Could both scenarios […]
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Date: December 11, 2024
Bears Getting Some Food
Interesting day on Friday. The Dow Industrials were down -.28% while the S&P 500 was up .25% and the NASDAQ 100 up .92%. More stocks went down than went up the NYSE. In the chart below you can see the S&P 500 in the upper panel with the NYSE Advance/Decline Line in the lower panel. See how the S&P has been making a series of new highs? Now look below that at the NYSE A/D. It has been going down […]
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Date: December 9, 2024
