OUCH! That Hurt
Friday was an ugly day for the bulls and one that caught me a little off guard, just two days removed from a fresh high in the S&P 500. However, in the grand scheme of things, Friday was very much in line with how I have been thinking this year. Wednesday’s new high wasn’t confirmed by much else. It was more of an island of strength that got washed over sooner than later. It was a typical “risk off” day […]
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Date: February 24, 2025
No Mo’ Momo
My title for 2025 has been, The Year Momentum Died. I argued that buying and selling strength was going to be the most rewarding strategy. Well friends, that epitomizes what we are and have been seeing. Wednesday saw the S&P 500 finally breakout to the upside and get people a little more excited. I was hoping for a 1-2% spurt to perhaps do some selling and risk reduction. But the bulls couldn’t muster any momentum. They just kinda died. And […]
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Date: February 21, 2025
Bulls Fail At New Highs (For Now) – NASDAQ 100 Leading, Russell Still Lagging
As you know I have been waiting, patiently and not so patiently, for the stock market to print fresh, all-time highs. I thought we could see a quick 1-2% spurt higher that would be more of a selling opportunity than a momentum train higher. So what happened when the S&P 500 as shown below got to the old highs? It drifted quietly back to where it began the day. I would like to see the index close above 6130 this […]
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Date: February 18, 2025
Are All-Time Highs Really Here?!?!
It didn’t feel easy, but the S&P 500 got back to the old highs on Thursday and within a whisker of closing at fresh, all-time highs. It looks like there should be more upside coming with a possible 1-2% spurt higher. Interestingly, the market has ignored the constant barrage of tariffs and DeepSeek and DOGE. Remember what I write. It’s not what the news is, but how markets react. Markets will do what they want, especially when the news doesn’t […]
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Date: February 14, 2025
Inflation Hotter As Expected
We learned this morning that January inflation data was hotter than expected. I know my readers are not surprised because that is my theme for early 2025. Inflation should moderate during the second half of the year. And it was hot enough that I am sure pundits will talk about a Fed rate hike instead of cut. I think that’s unfounded and unwise. Let’s look, yet again, at the S&P 500 below. Not much going on this week. It remains […]
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Date: February 12, 2025
Bears Have The Ball
Friday’s action in the stock market saw the bears make a stand at precisely the moment they had to before the S&P 500 headed to new highs. Funny how that sometimes works. You can see on the far right side of the chart below how the bears have rejected the bulls with red at 6130, 6120 and now at 6100. That is three times with a lower level each time, meaning the bears are getting more aggressive. The behavior by […]
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Date: February 10, 2025
Indices Pressing Towards New Highs – Still Not A Buying Opportunity
Two straight weeks of blue Mondays followed by market bounces. The S&P 500 is just a good day away from new highs although my thinking has not changed that it would be more of selling opportunity that a buying of momentum one. That will change, but not before we see more meaningful downside to cleanse the greed and euphoria. I guess the S&P 500 could run a few percent in new highs, but I still think it needs damage to […]
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Date: February 7, 2025
Tariffs Creating Investor Anxiety
Tariffs on. Tariffs off. I sense this to be a theme going forward. The longer this lasts and the more times it happens, the more the markets will price in the outcome, whatever that may be. You already know my feelings about tariffs and protectionism. I won’t rehash that everyday. In my 2025 Fearless Forecast I wrote that one of my themes was that 2025 will fell worse than it actually is. Look at the S&P 500 below. It’s really […]
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Date: February 5, 2025
DeepSeek Last Monday – Tariffs Today
Tariffs will dominate the news this week as President Trump followed through on his threats against China, Canada and Mexico. I have long been against tariffs as an economic tool and I remain that way. No country can tariff its way to prosperity. No one wins a trade war. There are only losers. Yes. I fully understand that other countries do not play by the rules. But I am a free trader. I seek trade deals not protectionism. For the […]
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Date: February 3, 2025
Secure Your Golden Years: How to Effectively Plan Your Retirement in Connecticut with an AIF®
Retiring in Connecticut can be rewarding, but retirees face financial challenges. At Heritage Capital, located in Woodbridge, Connecticut, we specialize in personalized, tax-savvy strategies that help retirees protect their golden years. The AIF® designation held by Founder and President Paul Schatz further exemplifies our commitment to the highest standards of fiduciary responsibility, ensuring that we always put your interests first. Local expertise guarantees that we address the challenges and opportunities unique to retiring in Connecticut. The Retirement Landscape in Connecticut […]
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Date: February 3, 2025
Not A Market To Chase
Since Monday’s plunge the stock market has recovered “nicely”. However, the S&P 500 hasn’t gone anywhere in two months. The NASDAQ 100 either. Lots of chop in a trading range which is pretty much what I laid out in my 2025 Fearless Forecast, the year momentum died. Up, down, sideways, lots of frustration. I see it in our models. Some are full bore exposed at 200% and 300%. Others have very low exposure. And they’re moving all the time. It’s […]
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Date: January 31, 2025
Hawkish Pause From The Fed? Market Not In Great Shape
The model for today’s Fed day is plus or minus 0.50% until 2pm and then a rally. A high probability long trade was setting up nicely until yesterday’s rally. Now it’s just a coin flip. Jay Powell and the FOMC will take no action today although he may offer a hawkish pause where rates stay the same but his rhetoric is hawkish. The 2-Year Note currently sits at 4.21% with the Fed Funds Rate at 4.33%. That is as neutral […]
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Date: January 29, 2025
All-Time High S&P 500 – Is It The Selling Opp I Forecast?
Welcome back to a new week. I rooted for the Commanders. They lost. I rooted harder for the Bills. They lost. I hate the Eagles and the Chiefs. I rooted for the UCONN men. They lost. And I was so looking forward to visiting clients in Florida today where it will be 80 degrees. I think I have the flu and I canceled my trip. It’s okay. I can handle all the adversity! On Friday the S&P 500 hit fresh, […]
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Date: January 27, 2025
Fearless Forecast 2025 – Part II Calm Before The Storm
Finishing up the equities portion of the 2025 Fearless Forecast, let’s turn to sectors. Last year, I said that technology would not lead again, but also would not lag. And it finished in the middle. I liked financials, healthcare, biotechnology, energy and REITs. While financials led the market, the other sector picks lagged. For 2025, I see the same impact by tech. And I am going back to the well with biotech, energy and healthcare plus regional banks and retail […]
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Date: January 24, 2025
S&P 500 Poised For New Highs
Price-wise, the bulls had another good day on Friday with the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 leading the way to sizable gains. It was a strong five days for the bulls coming off meeting my minimum downside target last Monday. To poke holes, after the open, price didn’t do anything. It just meandered about most of the day. And there were only 600 more stocks going than down on a solid rally. That number should have been higher. Let’s also […]
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Date: January 21, 2025
Fearless Forecast 2025 – The Year Momentum Died
I have been publishing my Fearless Forecast for more than 30 years. I don’t know many or really any other advisor that sticks their neck out like this year in and year out. That’s one of the many reasons why we are different. I love producing original content, especially when it flies in the face of consensus or conventional wisdom. Our industry has a lot of lazy people. I don’t know how individual investors tolerate and accept the regurgitation of […]
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Date: January 20, 2025
So Far So Good For The Bulls
Since my minimum downside target was met on Monday the bulls’ response has been solid across the major stock market indices. All have rallied smartly. Below are the S&P 500 and Russell 2000. While the former looks to be in better shape than the latter, the Russell has more upside potential simply because it sold off the most. Several things still bother me. Sentiment never fully cycled to bearish although market internals did. I don’t love the leadership set up […]
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Date: January 17, 2025
Minimum Downside Met – Banks Teed Up Into Earnings
The S&P 500 met my minimum downside target for a low because it breached the December lows and closed below them as well. However, that doesn’t mean the bottom is in for sure. We just have to watch and see how the market behaves. This is not one of those bell-ringing, close your eyes and buy situation. I think that happens either later this quarter or later this year. In the chart below of the S&P 500 you can see […]
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Date: January 15, 2025
7 Retirement Dos and Don’ts for High-Net-Worth Individuals
We at Heritage Capital assist high-net-worth individuals in navigating the increasingly complex issues of retirement. Whether crafting a multigenerational wealth strategy or aligning investments with retirement goals, we tailor our services to fit your special needs. Our goal is to help you pursue financial independence while preserving and growing your wealth. Our team, led by Paul Schatz, holder of the Accredited Investment Fiduciary (AIF®) Designation, is dedicated to providing you with the best strategies for retirement planning. Based in Woodbridge, […]
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Date: January 13, 2025
Stocks Break Down – Plenty Of Reasons To Support Bull Market
After the economy created 100,000 more jobs than expected, stocks and bonds decided that was bad news and promptly sold off. Makes sense, right? No, it really doesn’t although as I wrote about on Friday it is because the perception is now less help from the Fed. I have also been waiting to see if stocks poked to new highs first and then we could sell or if they fell below December’s low which would hasten a buying opportunity. The […]
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Date: January 12, 2025
