Still In Small Caps – Tesla Turnaround
I am always thankful to the markets gods when I am out of pocket and not much happens, like yesterday and last week with the Jewish holidays. For those who observed, I hope you had an easy and meaningful fast. I made up for the 24 hours of lost time with bagels, lox, cream cheese, ruglah, mimosa, homemade mac n cheese and marble cake. No wonder I had trouble falling asleep. As you know I have been writing about the […]
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Date: October 3, 2025
Conflicting October Stats, Heightened Risk, Dow 50,000 And Something Shutdown
Q4 is here. I always feel like Q3 flies by because it’s summer and the weather is warm. Of course, Q1 crawls by with winter and low daylight. Anyway, we have a number of studies that are relevant to year-end. Let’s start with October. We know that October is one of the few months that performs better when it begins in an downtrend, unlike the present. When the month starts in an uptrend, it shows a slight loss. Getting more […]
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Date: October 1, 2025
From Bonds to Stocks: How Interest Rates Affect Retirement
When rates rise, some retirees breathe easier knowing their bonds might pay more. Others worry that their stock portfolio could take a hit. And when rates fall? The script flips. If you’ve built up $500K or more in investable assets, you’ve probably felt that tension firsthand. The goal isn’t to guess what the Fed will do next; it’s to position your retirement plan to stay strong no matter what happens. Our article, “From Bonds to Stocks: How Interest Rates Affect […]
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Date: September 30, 2025
Ryder Cup Process Needs To Change
Such an amazing weekend for sports enthusiasts. Yankees and Blue Jays battled down to the wire. Two of the best college football games between GA and AL as well as Penn State and Oregon. Cowboys and Packers play no defense in a 40-40 tie. And of course, the biennial Ryder Cup which I had planned my whole Friday through Sunday around for the past year. Having played golf for 52 years and in hundreds of tournaments, the armchair golfer in […]
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Date: September 29, 2025
The Weakest Week Of The Weakest Month Playing Out
On Monday I wrote that this week was the weakest week of the weakest month of the year. Contrary to what we heard from the media and pundits at the end of August about September, I thought this seasonal trend had a good chance to play out because few people were discussing it. Furthermore, I read an additional study which I wasn’t able to verify until today that showed this and next week being down 90%+ of the time. Again, […]
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Date: September 25, 2025
The Weakest Week Of The Weakest Month Is Here
Remember in late August when the media made a huge deal about the bearishness of September? Yeah. Neither do they. I actually met with someone who first wanted to sell everything he had because he knew it was going to be bad. And then he decided not to invest with us because I wasn’t giving the media’s story any credibility. But I did the research and homework to give you the facts and details. And if you’re keeping score at […]
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Date: September 22, 2025
Powell Moves as Expected – Small Caps Continue To Rip
On Wednesday Jay Powell and the FOMC what everyone expected them to do. They cut rates by 1/4% and indicated that more rates reductions were coming. Stocks sold off and then came back. The potential set up for downside did not materialize because there wasn’t a strong upside reaction post-2pm. While the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 didn’t do much over the past two days, my favorite index, the Russell 2000, certainly did. On Fed day, the small caps rallied […]
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Date: September 19, 2025
***SPECIAL Fed Update – Dissolving The FOMC, Dow 50,000+***
On some, many or most FOMC (Fed) days, I often sing Europe’s, “It’s the final countdown”. At 2pm on Wednesday, Jay Powell and the rest of the FOMC conclude their two-day meeting with what will be the first interest rate cut since December 2024, one is long overdue. Before we get there, the stock market model for the day is plus or minus 0.50% until 2pm and then a rally. While the S&P 500 sold off mildly on Tuesday, it […]
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Date: September 17, 2025
Markets Stronger Than Even I Expected
I gotta say that this market is even stronger than I thought in my most bullish scenario. For five months I have been writing about how the tariff tantrum reportedly saw the single greatest mass liquidation by institutions of all-time in dollar terms. And then the masses hated and disavowed the rally right through June before accepting it. I guess I was wrong there. With stocks continuing to grind and creep higher week after week after week, there must an […]
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Date: September 12, 2025
Major Economic News This Week Against Backdrop Of Strong Stock Market
Interesting week so far for economic data. First, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) revised job growth down by 911,000 jobs. That is an epic revision and certainly weakens many narratives and spins about the robustness of the economy. That data was from April 2024 through March 2025. Not shockingly, the politicians have gone dark regarding jobs, and that’s from both sides. This morning, the government released inflation at the producer level. Surprisingly, at least to me, it actually fell […]
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Date: September 10, 2025
Be Careful What You Wish For – But Smalls Caps Are Delivering
Friday saw a strong opening after the less than expected jobs numbers. Think about that. Stocks rallied. Bonds rallied. Gold rallied. And all because of a weaker than expected economic report. Many people would say that is counterintuitive. After all, shouldn’t markets rally on good news and sell off on bad news? Well, that really depends on the market regime. And right now, bad news is good news because it means the Fed is closer to cutting interest rates. I […]
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Date: September 8, 2025
Less Tariffs Now Bad, Weaker Jobs & Finally A Rate Cut
Lots going on to end the week. First, how could I ignore the media’s blame for the big down opening on Tuesday? Remember how every down day in Q1 and early Q2 was because of the prospect of tariffs? And how they would wreck the economy and usher in a new wave of inflation? Yeah. They clearly forgot because all I heard was that stocks were falling because the courts struck down some tariffs and the U.S. needs that revenue. […]
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Date: September 5, 2025
The Ides Of September Or Just Laziness
I often write about seasonality and seasonal trends. I view them as tailwinds or headwinds, but definitely not something to trigger action. I also know that when the media highlights a seasonal pattern it becomes very unlikely to play out. I also know that most people quote seasonality without ever doing the research to confirm what they are saying. It’s also what I write about a lot, laziness. The month of September is here. I have heard from a number […]
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Date: September 3, 2025
Nvidia & Less Government Intervention
I absolutely loved that Nvdia’s earnings did not set off a massive move in the stock. For our models, it makes trading easier when one stock doesn’t have an outsized impact on a given day. As I wrote about the other day, the stock is maturing and the more and more people who own it and focus on it, the less likely we will see surprises and outside the norm reactions. The unintended consequences are that growth rates will also […]
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Date: August 29, 2025
And Here We Go Again – Nvidia Set To Report
We have lots of news floating around from Fed Governor Lisa Cook being fired for mortgage fraud to the government taking an equity stake in Intel to Nvidia reporting earnings after the bell today. Let’s look at Nvidia, the largest company in the stock market, well ahead of Microsoft, Apple and Amazon. Nvidia has had quite a run since the April bottom. From the mid-$80s to $182, that an eye-popping return. I usually prefer highflying stocks to show weakness into […]
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Date: August 27, 2025
Powell Pivoted & Small Caps Loved it
Jay Powell blinked, finally. Powell and the FOMC have been dead wrong according to my work. They were wrong to wait to hike rates and they are wrong in waiting to cut them. Frankly, I always prefer to be a little early than late and forced to play catch up. The markets don’t like and the economy certainly doesn’t like that. On Friday in what was Jay Powell’s likely last speech from the Jackson Hole symposium, he opened the door […]
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Date: August 25, 2025
4 Ways a Fee-Only Advisor in New Haven Can Help Build Wealth
You’ve spent years accumulating personal wealth so that you may have over $1 million in retirement and non-retirement savings today. After four decades of work, your retirement date is finally getting close. Maybe it’s two years away. Maybe five. Either way, you’re starting to think seriously about how your different sources of retirement income will support you when the paychecks stop. Then, without much warning, the stock market suddenly plunges steeply. Who knows how long the decline will last or […]
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Date: August 25, 2025
Powell To Pivot – Markets Poised For More Upside
Fed Chair Jay Powell’s last Jackson Hole speech is here. It’s the only big news event of the week. Markets are expecting a more dovish Powell and an interest rate cut in September. While I do not think Powell will turn fully dovish, I do think he will give the market some of what it wants. With the last inflation report hotter than expected it would be crazy for Powell to ignore it. He also can’t ignore the weakening employment […]
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Date: August 22, 2025
Berkshire Looking Better – NASDAQ 100 Dipping To Buy
Following up on my Berkshire Hathaway comments from Monday’s post, below are weekly charts of the stock followed by it’s performance versus the S&P 500. Recall that there has been lots of chatter about Buffet’s retirement and the stock no longer being an outperformer. In absolute terms below, the stocks chart looks powerful, steadily moving from the lower left to the upper right. Comparing Berkshire to the S&P 500, it’s much noisier. Overall, since 2017, BRK has kept pace to […]
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Date: August 20, 2025
Volatility About To Spike With Fed Meeting?
Although it’s August with the markets in full summer doldrum mode, the Fed is meeting this week in their annual Jackson Hole retreat where we should get a very clear picture about the potential for a rate cut in September. Markets are pricing in an almost certainty of this. More on Wednesday. Volatility remains depressed at the 15 level which is very typical during a mature bull market. Until proven otherwise, forays above 20 are buying opportunities for stocks. There […]
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Date: August 18, 2025
