Historic Expiration, Good Data, Russell To New Highs & Trade Gone Bad
Today is the single largest options expiration in history. While that sounds important, the truth of the matter is that March, June, September and December are always huge expirations with December usually even larger because it is year-end. And as markets grow, so does the use of derivatives, like options. So, the numbers are historic, but not something I am going to worry about since all of these options go bye bye today. Over the last few days, the government […]
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Date: December 19, 2025
Another Set Up For The Bulls
As I discussed this week, the stock market often sees a very mild seasonal soft patch or headwind in mid-December that ends plus or minus five days around options expiration which is this Friday. I was looking for at least one more move lower to increase exposure and that came over the last two days. As always, you can see what we bought and sold at the bottom. The S&P 500 is below and it is setting up for a […]
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Date: December 17, 2025
Minor Pullback To Set Up New Highs
Friday was one ugly day, especially in the popular and sexy AI space which got hit very hard. It is amazing that these one day plunges are so often accompanied by calls of a 10% correction or a bear market or worse. Then stocks recover and the bears hibernate again. Rinse and repeat. I don’t like the fact that a number of key indices got right back to the old highs and failed. And until we see new highs across […]
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Date: December 15, 2025
Fed Delivers – Markets Too – Rally Broadens
Fed cuts. Check. Stocks rally post-2pm. Check. New closing highs in the major indices. Mixed. The Dow Industrials hit new highs. The S&P 500 hit a new closing high but not a new intra-day high. The S&P 400 hit a new closing high but not a fresh intra-day high. The Russell 2000 scored fresh highs on both counts. The NASDAQ 100 failed so far which is an area of concern. The sexy, loved and over-owned AI stocks are being sold […]
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Date: December 12, 2025
***Special Fed Day Update – Rate Cut & Dow 50K Coming***
Today is FOMC statement day. Spoiler alert. Jay Powell & Company will be cutting interest rates by 1/4%. There shouldn’t even be a debate from all of the pundits who think the odds have swung so wildly over the past month. They haven’t and only people not paying attention think the Fed doesn’t cut or that inflation is a problem. It’s not. The stock market model for the day is stronger than usual, calling for plus or minus 0.50% until […]
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Date: December 10, 2025
New Highs Up Next With Higher Risk Leading Into Fed Meeting
As we have discussed, we know that after the 6% pullback, we have some minor, but strong thrusts off of the recent low. And we know that there is a strong seasonal tailwind into 2026. We also know that the models that had been neutral to negative ahead of the pullback have all flipped back to positive. Friday saw some rejection by the bears as price got close to the old highs. The stock market does not need to fail […]
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Date: December 8, 2025
Indices Poised For New Highs But They Better Not Fail First
The strong breadth thrust I wrote about continues to power the stock market higher in what is a very strong seasonal period. In other words, there is a good market tailwind from the calendar. The thrust was the catalyst. However, with only a 6% pullback, the thrust was not a bell-ringing, go all in and not worry signal. Rather, it was a good spot in an ongoing bull market to add money, add some risk, prune and plant. If you […]
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Date: December 5, 2025
Bulls Turn Tide – All-Time Highs – Bitcoin
The first three days of the current rally saw a surge in the number of stocks going versus down, otherwise known as a breadth thrust. Think of it like a rocket ship taking off. The strongest acceleration is from the launch pad to get the rocket going. Then, it has speed and decelerates to lower thrust. That’s how markets work from lows in many situations. In this case, the thrust was an historic one and that’s because the decline was […]
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Date: December 3, 2025
Thanksgiving Rally Delivers – December Supposed To Be Up
Welcome to December. The home stretch for 2025. I hope you had a happy and peaceful Thanksgiving that included great food and football! I have to admit that I was shocked the Cowboys beat Philly and KC in a span of four days, going from irrelevant to playoff contender. Our family went against consensus and took a family trip to the Cayman Islands for the week that included an awful lot of sun, food, drinks and together time. I don’t […]
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Date: December 1, 2025
Bulls Fight Back But Landscape Unchanged
The bulls certainly fought back with vengeance the last two days after Thursday’s ugly reversal rout. That’s not surprising given the pullback got to the 5% mark during a time of year when larger declines are rare, save 2000, 2007 and 2018. And let’s not forget that so many investors are still chasing risk assets from having panicked and sold right at the tariff tantrum lows in April. The great performance chase has been on throughout the past few months. […]
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Date: November 25, 2025
Are Politics Influencing Your Investment Decisions?
Many wealth management firms, particularly those serving high-net-worth clients, can become entangled in political intrigue when designing retirement plans or constructing investment portfolios. Who’s in the White House? Which party controls Congress? What new tax bill might pass? Will new regulations negatively impact my current investments? At Heritage Capital, LLC, we see things differently. If your investment strategy depends on political policy, you’re probably focusing on the wrong driver. The real force behind a substantial part of market movement isn’t […]
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Date: November 24, 2025
Nvidia Soars & Plunges As Bonds Outperform Bitcoin With A New Set Up
On Wednesday I wrote about my total lack of conviction on how Nvidia’s stock would react to earnings, even if I knew exactly what they would report. Well, they reported an absolute homerun, blowout quarter with everything clicking on all cylinders. The stock and the stock market soared at the open. Lots of chirping and giddiness on social media. However, a funny thing happened on the way to the celebration; sellers flooded the markets. Nvidia is below. While the media […]
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Date: November 21, 2025
Hated Set Up Playing Out As Volatility Rises Into Nvidia
Let’s start with the pullback which is now back to 5% on the S&P 500, an area that usually holds in the strongest bull markets. It would be tidier if we saw a quick plunge below the October bottom that coincided with a spike in fear. That should set up the markets for a nice year-end rally. The other day I wrote about a hated set up in the stock market that is playing out negatively as it often does. […]
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Date: November 19, 2025
Buying Assets, Not Emotions: Q4 Strategic Roth Conversions
Every year, investors experience a mix of optimism and anxiety as markets move into the fourth quarter. Between talk of recessions, “tariff tantrums,” “new highs for the national debt” ($38 trillion and rising), and election noise, emotional decision-making tends to increase, and with it, costly mistakes. At Heritage Capital, we believe the final months of the year are not a time for emotional investment decisions, but rather a time for updating existing plans and creating new ones. Specifically, Q4 is […]
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Date: November 18, 2025
Master Of The Universe Closes Firm – Concerning
Last week, famed perma-bear, Michael Burry, announced he was closing up shop because his models have not been in sync with the markets for many years. Before dismissing this as just another Chicken Little calling it quits, Burry did parlay his Armageddon view into billions during the Great Financial Crisis which later became the book and movie called The Big Short. Since his generational trade 17 years ago, almost every single public call he has made has been a dud […]
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Date: November 17, 2025
Pucker Up – One Of My Most Hated Setups
For all of the cringe-worthy commentary from the media and pundits you would think the stock market is down at least 10%. It’s not. At its worst last week, the pullback was 5%. Thursday was an ugly day after a nice rally off of last week’s low. One of my most hated setups is when the stock market forms a low, rallies but does not make a new high and then rolls over; exactly what is currently happening. That can […]
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Date: November 14, 2025
Dow Surges To All-Time Highs – Narrowness Not Totally Narrow
As I tweeted and wrote here, last Friday was not a day to sit on your hands and do nothing. Stocks got down to the -5% pullback line where the healthiest of bull markets like to find buyers. And some of our models replanted cash into some “risk on” areas. The risk/reward looked to be roughly 2/1 to the upside with a close below Friday’s low as the point at which I would know I was wrong. Somewhat oddly, the […]
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Date: November 12, 2025
DC Gets Back To Work – New Highs With Defined Risk
The nonsense that was yet another government shutdown has apparently ended. While there has been bipartisan support to reopen the government for weeks, there is now the 60 votes required in the Senate. Focusing solely on the economy and markets, the great news is that the government will quickly gather and release a slew of economic data that was unable to be received during the shutdown. As such, markets will need some time to digest and may cause some short-lived […]
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Date: November 10, 2025
Pullback Continues Into Next Week
Last week a number of our models downgraded the stock market against the backdrop of euphoric and greedy pockets. On Wednesday I thought we could see a bounce in the S&P 500, but the other indices were not in the same place. I also thought the S&P could still end up a few hundred points lower. I have heard folks targeting the average price of the last 50 days which is only a percent lower from here. It seems to […]
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Date: November 7, 2025
Models No Longer All Bullish – A Look At The Indices
Last week, a number of our stock market models turned neutral to negative as I wrote in my Fed update post. That creates some crosscurrents given the seasonal tailwind and higher volatility stocks leading lower volatility stocks for most of the rally. The bull market is not over so folks do not need to ask about that. The best case for the bears is that stocks are entering a period of sideways activity that frustrates everyone. The S&P 500 is […]
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Date: November 5, 2025
