Pucker Up – One Of My Most Hated Setups
For all of the cringe-worthy commentary from the media and pundits you would think the stock market is down at least 10%. It’s not. At its worst last week, the pullback was 5%. Thursday was an ugly day after a nice rally off of last week’s low. One of my most hated setups is when the stock market forms a low, rallies but does not make a new high and then rolls over; exactly what is currently happening. That can […]
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Date: November 14, 2025
Dow Surges To All-Time Highs – Narrowness Not Totally Narrow
As I tweeted and wrote here, last Friday was not a day to sit on your hands and do nothing. Stocks got down to the -5% pullback line where the healthiest of bull markets like to find buyers. And some of our models replanted cash into some “risk on” areas. The risk/reward looked to be roughly 2/1 to the upside with a close below Friday’s low as the point at which I would know I was wrong. Somewhat oddly, the […]
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Date: November 12, 2025
DC Gets Back To Work – New Highs With Defined Risk
The nonsense that was yet another government shutdown has apparently ended. While there has been bipartisan support to reopen the government for weeks, there is now the 60 votes required in the Senate. Focusing solely on the economy and markets, the great news is that the government will quickly gather and release a slew of economic data that was unable to be received during the shutdown. As such, markets will need some time to digest and may cause some short-lived […]
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Date: November 10, 2025
Pullback Continues Into Next Week
Last week a number of our models downgraded the stock market against the backdrop of euphoric and greedy pockets. On Wednesday I thought we could see a bounce in the S&P 500, but the other indices were not in the same place. I also thought the S&P could still end up a few hundred points lower. I have heard folks targeting the average price of the last 50 days which is only a percent lower from here. It seems to […]
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Date: November 7, 2025
Models No Longer All Bullish – A Look At The Indices
Last week, a number of our stock market models turned neutral to negative as I wrote in my Fed update post. That creates some crosscurrents given the seasonal tailwind and higher volatility stocks leading lower volatility stocks for most of the rally. The bull market is not over so folks do not need to ask about that. The best case for the bears is that stocks are entering a period of sideways activity that frustrates everyone. The S&P 500 is […]
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Date: November 5, 2025
***Q3 Client Update***
The third quarter of 2025 certainly had a lot going on, both in terms of geopolitical events, markets and the economy. Similar to Q2, the stock and bond markets were sanguine, rewarding investors who accepted varying amounts of risk with the S&P 500 up by 8% and the equivalent bond index (Barclay’s Aggregate) ahead by 2%. The economy continued to exceed expectations. Coming into Q3 I expected a quieter quarter than we saw in Q2 in terms of market volatility […]
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Date: November 3, 2025
End-of-Year Tax Planning for High-Net-Worth Individuals in Connecticut
The end of the year is coming quickly, offering a valuable window to make strategic tax moves before December 31. With economic shifts, ongoing market volatility, and evolving tax laws, waiting until the last minute can leave you scrambling and potentially missing out on meaningful tax savings. Rather than reacting to surprises in the new year, proactive planning now can help position your wealth more efficiently. These final months are critical, whether you’re preparing for retirement, selling a business, or […]
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Date: November 3, 2025
Fed To Cut Rates, Dow 50,000 But Bumpy First, Buying Silver & Gold
Lots to cover today and not enough time. First, I am traveling the next four business days so my publishing schedule may be off. Today the FOMC concludes its meeting where they will cut interest rates by 1/4%. The stock market model is plus or minus 0.50% until 2pm and then a rally. With stocks at all-time highs and having rallied so smartly into the meeting, the success rate for a final two hour rally declines and the odds increase […]
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Date: October 29, 2025
Uncertainty Ahead? Active Management for Your Retirement Portfolio in Today’s Market
When markets are unpredictable, inflation is persistent, and interest rate policy keeps shifting, it’s natural to feel uneasy about the future of your retirement plan. This uncertainty raises real questions for high-net-worth individuals in Connecticut relying on consistent investment performance. Is your current portfolio strategy built to adapt? Or has it been slow to respond when conditions change? Passive investing, often known as “set it and forget it,” has become a popular approach. However, in today’s environment, many investors wonder […]
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Date: October 29, 2025
Risk On Rules – Late Comers Punished in Gold & Silver
FYI, the annual Medicare enrollment period is now open through December 7th. Friday was the fourth Friday of October if I read my calendar properly. Very strong seasonal tailwinds begin today with the stock market already at all-time highs. Additionally, this is the last week of October where more strong seasonal tailwinds begin. I had thought the big down day with the long red candle a few weeks ago would not be the lowest low, meaning that I saw more […]
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Date: October 27, 2025
Tariffs Causing Worry For The Clueless – Dow 50,000 On The Way
So much non-market moving news that folks seem to fixate on. I guess we’re back to chirping about tariffs which you already know how much I oppose them. However, at the same time, I have also stated that contrary to many economists and academics I did not believe they would cause recession, befall the markets nor have a major impact on prices. There is ad that went viral with video or quoting Ronald Reagan that supposedly said tariffs hurt America […]
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Date: October 24, 2025
Fed Rate Cuts & Your Retirement: CT High-Net-Worth Strategies
The Federal Reserve’s decisions don’t just make headlines; they ripple across portfolios, especially for high-net-worth individuals. In particular, interest rate cuts can shift the entire dynamic of how investments behave and how long wealth lasts in retirement. Rate cuts can impact everything from bond income and real estate performance to equity market volatility and inflation pressure. And if your wealth strategy was built around the assumptions of a high-rate environment, now is the time to revisit it. At Heritage Capital, […]
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Date: October 24, 2025
Punishing Gold & Silver Late Comers
Last week I wrote about gold, silver, rare earths and quantum computing sectors showing classic signs of greed and euphoria. Recall the man on the train to NYC who told me to “buy gold” and “those AI stocks”. Then I had a friend advise me to load up on silver. This friend had never offered me investment advice. Of course, the gold commercials are back. And the pundits on TV have revised history about buying gold 50-75% lower than current […]
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Date: October 22, 2025
All-Time Highs On The Way – Monday Morning Soapbox Preach
During the 2.8% plunge two Friday’s ago, I stated that the data suggested bullish implications over the ensuing five and ten days. Although I heard the media discuss the volatility and difficulty of last week, the markets were up and they look higher in the pre-market. As I always say, check the narratives and spin at the door. Use non-emotional data for decisions and analysis. Seasonal headwinds start to lighten up at the end of the week and the indices […]
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Date: October 20, 2025
Private Credit & Contagion Risk The Culprit
I have been discussing a 2-5% pullback for a few weeks, certainly not knowing why the market would pull back, only that it was set up. We now know the culprit, private credit and regional banks. For months, the alternative asset managers have been falling and hit with the ugly stick. Ares, KKR, Blackstone and Blue Owl are among the major ones. I had no idea why other than thinking there was an interest rate dislocation somewhere. That assumption was […]
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Date: October 17, 2025
Volatility Up, Small Caps Lead & 3 Year Anniversary
Volatility has certainly increased. From less than 15 to over 22. That’s almost 50% in short order. Stocks are int he midst of the mild pullback I have written about. 2-5% is the range on the downside. Weakness remains buyable. You know where money is going on an index level? The same place I have written about for six months, small caps. Below is a chart showing the small caps relative to the large caps. When the link goes up, […]
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Date: October 15, 2025
Stocks Plunge – Bullish Implications
Friday was an ugly day for risk assets as most saw their largest one day plunges since the tariff tantrum period in April. A pullback has been for a while. 80%+ of the volume was in stocks that declined. What rallied the most was hit the hardest. The QQQ which tracks the NASDAQ 100 saw a volume spike to almost 100 million shares as early, all-time high celebrations reversed when Donald Trump tweeted about hitting China with “massive tariffs”. Whether […]
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Date: October 13, 2025
Gold Is What Folks Should Worry About
Yesterday, I took the train to NYC for my Fox Business segment. As I normally do, I opened my laptop and got to work. While many know me as a serial socializer in life, I am laser focused on work when I travel. So I am working away and the man next to me leans over and says, “buy gold”. And then he adds, “and the AI stuff too”. Now, I don’t know much, but I do know that no […]
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Date: October 10, 2025
Pullback Not A Bubble – How To Manage Positions
Not much new since Monday, just more talk about an AI bubble which continues to be nonsense. I do enjoy reading the tweets and emails about how wrong I am, warning me of impending doom. Same folks who warned me about recession in early April and back in 2022 and 2023 because of inflation. These folks have become excellent contrary indicators. The markets are stretched. 100%. They have grinded and crept higher since mid-April without more than a mild pullback. […]
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Date: October 8, 2025
The Impact of AI on Your Retirement Portfolio
Artificial intelligence is no longer a concept on the horizon; it’s already influencing how companies operate, investments are evaluated, and wealth is managed. Suppose you’re an affluent investor in Connecticut, especially if you’re planning your retirement or have already retired. In that case, AI presents opportunities to grow wealth and risks that could erode it if left unaddressed. The real challenge isn’t reacting to every new headline about AI-driven stock rallies or market volatility. It’s ensuring your retirement plan and […]
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Date: October 8, 2025
