***Special Fed Day Update – Powell & Company Wrong Again – Stocks Heading To New Highs***
After four crummy weather days, Mother Nature is apparently going to offer some sun and warmth in Southern CA, not that I have been outside since Sunday. The conference ends today and it’s been a tiring week so far, chairing the conference committee and keeping everything running smoothly and on time. I am looking forward to a half day free tomorrow morning before flying home. It’s FOMC day for the Fed. The stock market model is plus or minus 0.50% […]
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Date: May 7, 2025
***Q1 Client Update***
Following the election of Donald Trump to a second term, I broke with the vast majority of pundits and media when I had high conviction that 2025 would not be a repeat of 2017 where we saw animal spirits unleashed and markets soar. 2017 was all about the largest tax cut in history along with massive deregulation. Combined, that likely added hundreds of billions if not trillions into corporate coffers and individual balance sheets to stimulate an economy that didn’t […]
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Date: May 6, 2025
Bears Still Hate And Disavow – Pullback Here
Greetings from Orange County, CA where the weather is anything but sunny. In fact, it is cool, drizzly and foggy. I actually have layers on. And why did I leave sunny CT? Friday was another very strong day for the bulls with 2150 stocks up and only 500 down on the day. It was also the 9th straight up day for the S&P 500 which has carried higher during this first rally off the bottom than I would have thought. […]
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Date: May 5, 2025
8 Straight For The Bulls As Some Bears Throw In The Towel
Make it 8 straight, I think. What a rally off of the April 7th crash bottom. Lots and lots of folks fought and disavowed the rally as just a dead rat bounce in a longer-term bear market. I sense that Thursday saw some change as bears were giving up and opening the door to the rally being for real. Where have they been? My operating thesis was that the S&P 500 would rally to the 5500-5600 area before the bears […]
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Date: May 2, 2025
Now 6 Straight For The Bulls
I spent Tuesday in New York meeting with clients and visiting the good folks at Fox Business. Although I do like to talk a lot, I am a good listener, especially when trying to take the mood of the public. Today, I basically heard that younger folks are more scared of the current economic and market client than older folks. I know. I know. That’s some generalization. Older folks, say 50+ are pretty much split 50-50 along political lines. Either […]
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Date: April 30, 2025
Make It Four Straight
Markets enter the new week on a four day winning streak. Additionally, last week saw a number of thrusts which indicate the beginning of a new intermediate-term rally for stocks. However, with the trend still tilting down, that also means that stocks are tired in the short-term and in need of some rest. The NASDAQ 100 is first for a change below. With Google having reported last week and the good news being sold, a number of other high profile […]
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Date: April 28, 2025
High Net Worth? Discover Your Ideal Retirement Strategy in Woodbridge
Retirement planning for folks with sizable assets requires a special approach. Are you confident your present strategy is moving you toward your long-term goals? For high-net-worth (HNW) individuals who wish to retire in Connecticut, personalized financial planning is required to address the unique issues and opportunities presented by substantial wealth. We are Heritage Capital, a well-established local financial planning firm that develops personalized retirement plans based on your objectives. Regardless of whether you’re interested in tax planning, wealth transfer, or […]
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Date: April 28, 2025
Sometimes Markets Are Annoyingly Frustrating
The stock market blasted off this week. While Monday was a sizable down day, it turned out to be a trap for the bears. OUCH! Tuesday through Thursday were very strong, triggering a number of longer-term thrusts. Thrusts? Picture a rocket taking off. The first 1000, 10,000 and 100,000 feet see the strongest acceleration. Then the power continues without less energy. With stocks rallying so strongly, the bears seem to have disappeared. The same pundits who turned negative near the […]
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Date: April 25, 2025
We’ve Seen This Show Before. Read data. Analyze data. React to data.
Anyone dizzy yet? Tariffs on. Tariffs off. Fire Jay Powell. Don’t fire Jay Powell. I am not even sure what day it is anymore. But in investing just like life, we play the hand we are dealt, not the hand we want. I see our aggressive models swinging heavily long to short to neutral to long and on and on. The news is the news, just like we saw with COVID in 2020 and, well, everything, in 2008. Markets are […]
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Date: April 23, 2025
Markets Cranky To Start New Week
I hope those who observe Easter and Passover had a good holiday. The markets return from the long weekend on the cranky side with pre-market indicating a 1%+ loss at the open. Last week, I wrote about a pullback coming and this certainly looks like it. Unless I am totally misreading the market, there should be another rally coming later this week or next. Stocks basically remain in the range from that wild up 10% day from two Wednesdays ago. […]
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Date: April 21, 2025
Looking At Other Similar Crashes As Stocks Target All-Time Highs In Less Than A Year
The stock market bounced as expected from both a time and price standpoint. A pullback is next. I do not believe stocks will breach or come close to the lowest levels we have seen in April, at least not yet. Ideally, I would like to see the S&P 500 get to at least 5550over the coming few weeks. My thesis remains that a wide, 15% trading range is likely in place for the next 4-8 weeks and the final bottom […]
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Date: April 16, 2025
Tariff Crash To Tariff Surge – 4 to 8 Weeks More Of High Volatility
A new video is up. Tariff Crash To Tariff Surge – 4 to 8 Weeks More Of High Volatility On Friday we bought SDS and EIS. We sold EPOL and some QLD.
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Date: April 14, 2025
Are You Committing These Generational Wealth Transfer Errors?
It’s a story well-known to wealthy families: You’ve worked hard to build great wealth, and you’re willing to share it. But note the following statistics—70% of wealthy families lose their wealth by the second generation, and 90% by the third. That’s a staggering fact, and it doesn’t occur because the next generation spends wildly. More often, it’s a result of inadequate planning and insufficient communication. Wealth transfer from one generation to the next is more than a will. It is […]
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Date: April 14, 2025
“A” Significant Low Is In For Stocks – “THE” Bottom Likely 4-8 Weeks Off
When we left off on Wednesday morning which seemed like a year ago, I showed a number of charts that were supportive of the stock market finding “A” bottom earlier this week. I didn’t then and still question whether we’ve “THE” bottom. I doubt it unless the Fed comes in with the nuclear weapons like they did on April 6th 2020. Wednesday’s rally was one for the ages. The stock market rallied more in three hours than the average one […]
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Date: April 11, 2025
Volatility At Historic Highs – Comparing Other Crashes
There is so much to write about today, but I think I will table most of it and do another video this week. I want to start with the volatility which is at historic levels. Spikes like you see below in the chart of the VIX are almost always terminal, meaning the moves go straight up and die. I don’t want to say “never”, but I can’t find nor recall any period in history where the VIX spiked and remained […]
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Date: April 9, 2025
Spring Forward into Retirement: Active Portfolio Management for a Secure Future
Retirement planning is not merely saving; it’s making smart choices to safeguard and grow your money. Active portfolio management can help your retirement funds withstand market fluctuations and take advantage of good opportunities. Employing a fee-only financial planner, like Heritage Capital, offers the necessary guidance to gain financial independence. Paul Schatz, President of Heritage Capital and an Accredited Investment Fiduciary (AIF®) designee, sets the tone for the firm’s strong commitment to helping clients make the best-informed financial choices. The Need […]
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Date: April 8, 2025
Market Correction Turned Into A Waterfall Invoking 2022 & 2020 – Zone For A Bottom Opens This Week
In last week’s video, I discussed how Thursday’s plunge didn’t look like the decline was complete. Rather, the market needed some more downside and time to attempt to forge a low again. In that thesis, I certainly wasn’t talking about nor expecting the complete rout that happened on Friday where 90% of the volume came in stocks that declined. After very constructive behavior leading up to April 2nd, the two-day, about to be three-day, drop has turned into an emotional, […]
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Date: April 7, 2025
Stock Market Bottom Could Be In As Tariffs Begin
Tariff day is here. Love it or hate it, we have another highly anticipated event after the close. My sentiments have been shared many times. I am firmly against tariffs. All of them. Not just what the U.S. is retaliating for. No one wins a trade war. There are just varying degrees of losers. I hate losing. I heard a Canadian politician on TV this morning saying how much he loved the American people. His beef was only with Donald […]
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Date: April 2, 2025
Here’s The Good News – Stocks Getting Close
Interesting stats to begin the new week. When the stock market decline more than 1% on the 4th Friday of the month the next 7 days are usually up significantly. On top of that, April begins tomorrow and we know that when April starts the month in a downtrend like today, the month averages +2.5%. That’s a powerful seasonal tailwind. Last Wednesday I wrote that I thought it was an opportune time for the bears to come out. I thought […]
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Date: March 31, 2025
Bears Coming Out? Inflation Data Now Partisan
The bounce from the March 13th low continues. That’s good although it should run into some bears this week as it has retraced about 40% of what it lost since February 19th. Recall that my second most likely scenario was a weaker rally that failed somewhere around 6000. It is still too early to say which scenario will play out. We do know that the on again, off again tariff saga remains in full play with April 2nd looming. Long-term […]
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Date: March 26, 2025
