Inflation-Proofing Your Retirement Portfolio
Inflation has been a major topic of discussion in the last few years. The rising cost of living is more than an inconvenience—it’s a threat to financial security, especially in retirement. Groceries, utilities, and healthcare costs have steadily increased each year. You’re not alone in worries about inflation eroding your savings and making it harder to meet expenses without depleting your nest egg. The good news? There are strategies you can use to help mitigate inflation’s impact on your retirement […]
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Date: December 9, 2024
Job Growth Report Should Re-Accelerate – Markets Digesting For New Big Run
Today we have the “all-important” employment report which is the last high profile economic data point released before the Fed meets on the 18th. I am usually poor at guessing what the volatile number will be although I sense a quieter number than last month when we had weather and strikes impacting it. The economy should create many more jobs than shown in the last report when it was barely positive. I would think we are looking at greater than […]
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Date: December 6, 2024
Bond Yields Need To Be Watched
I hear lots of folks pointing out flaws in the markets, but I remind people that late Q4 declines from new highs are extremely rare. Cracks usually continue into the new year before any kind of meaningful pullback is seen. Sure, we can get a 2-3% pullback anytime and certainly between now and the 20th. However, you know my thesis. Buy weakness until proven otherwise. Let’s not overthink nor complicate this. Below is the yield on the 10-Year. It had […]
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Date: December 4, 2024
A December Bear – Wait For Godot or Bigfoot?
11 down, 1 to go. December is here. And while Q4 in general during a big up year is when portfolio managers start to chase the market, December is really when the mad dash happens. Similar to 2023 when the masses entered the year bearish, 2024 has had so many managers waiting and hoping for the big decline, the drop that never came. And now, those folks, once again, are concerned about job security as their portfolios widely trail their […]
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Date: December 2, 2024
Bears Still Wrong – 47,000 Up Next
I am planning on a number of timely year-end financial and tax strategy blogs next month. I am always amazed at how few financial advisors do their jobs properly and look out for clients’ best interests as year-end approaches. Now is not the time to get lazy. The strong pre-Thanksgiving seasonal trend looks to be a bit mitigated this year. The markets remain on solid footing, but we didn’t have any weakness to set it up better. The chart below […]
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Date: November 27, 2024
Tailwinds Are Here
I am just back from CA and that was a long trip home late last night. Friends, food and fun. I did get to binge the full second season of The Diplomat which I highly recommend. I also watched some of Industry season two which is a bit dark and not enough action for me. The Eagles played on Sunday night and I since I so dislike them, I couldn’t stand to watch the whole game. Let’s start with the […]
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Date: November 25, 2024
Russia Threatens Nukes – Nvidia The Focus
The major stock market indices are within a solid day or two of all-time highs. From now into January is the most seasonally strong period. On Monday and Tuesday the war in Ukraine escalated with Russia threatening a nuclear response. Although the market fell quickly, buyers rushed in and the bulls had a big day as many scratched their heads. Remember, it’s not what the news is, but how markets react. This story doesn’t appear to be over and more […]
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Date: November 20, 2024
Key Estate Planning Tips for High-Net-Worth Individuals
Without the right estate plan, there’s a significant risk of losing large portions of wealth to taxes, probate costs, and lengthy legal disputes. Family disagreements, business partner conflicts, and creditor claims can also add emotional and financial stress, making it difficult to have one’s wishes carried out. Estate planning isn’t just about passing on wealth; it’s about making sure your assets are distributed the way you intended while minimizing taxes and protecting your legacy. Heritage Capital is a financial planning […]
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Date: November 18, 2024
Markets Giving Back Post-Election Boom
I have been saying that 2024 is not 2016 and people should not be expecting the same response. It isn’t a knock on the markets. It’s just how the markets came into the 2016 and 2024 elections. The landscape was very different. 2024 was all about the “haves” and the “have nots”, very similar to how our economy has been since the emergency COVID measures ended. On Friday, almost everything was a “have not” in the stock market. After the […]
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Date: November 18, 2024
Post-Election Market Analysis Of Winners & Losers – What To Buy & Avoid
A new video is up. Post-Election Market Analysis Of Winners & Losers – What To Buy & Avoid On Wednesday we bought more MQQQ and QQQW. We sold SPYB and EMB. On Thursday we bought SPYB. We sold EEM and PDBC.
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Date: November 15, 2024
Participation Not As Strong
The post-election, post-Fed rally has slowed. As I have said, this is nothing like 2016 and I do not believe 2025 will look anything like 2017. Markets sometimes rhyme, but rarely repeat. I don’t think they are even rhyming. Through the middle of October participation in the rally was strong and confirmed the advance. Since then it has weakened as bond proxies that trade on the exchange have been hurt by falling bond prices. The chart below is the S&P […]
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Date: November 13, 2024
Post Rally Continues – Small Caps Poised For ATHs
The post-election, post-Fed rally continued on Friday. It is clear that the election released another round of animal spirits in the markets. While I definitely enjoyed seeing portfolios increase, I have been at this too long to believe this is one of those times to close your eyes and buy everything. And nor do I ever believe the markets are seeing a “new paradigm”. These are not political statements. It’s based on 35 years of experience in the markets. Someone […]
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Date: November 11, 2024
Tax-Efficient Investment Strategies: 4 Key Ways To Minimize Taxes
We’re all familiar with the old adage about the two certainties in life: death and taxes. Also, as income rises, so does the tax burden, and now there’s growing concern about potential tax increases in the future. Without the right strategies, your investment returns and overall financial plan may fall short of your goals. This is why focusing on tax-efficient investing is important, especially during market volatility and when approaching retirement or already retired. At Heritage Capital, we’ve been helping […]
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Date: November 11, 2024
Digesting The Post-Election / Fed Moves
Election out of the way. Fed out of the way. Q3 earnings season mostly over. Not many catalysts for a while. And that’s just the way I like it. Markets need to calm down and digest. Investors’ emotions need to recover. It’s been a whirlwind. As expected the Fed cut interest rates on Thursday and Jay Powell said he would not resign if Trump asked him. Markets didn’t really seem to care. The Fed made a mistake by cutting 0.50% […]
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Date: November 8, 2024
Model Strikes Out – Major Victory – Markets Caught Off Guard – Don’t Buy Everything
Well, so much to cover, so bleary-eyed. I always stay up way too late waiting and then information seems to slow to a crawl. Early in the evening, I watched three independent betting lines and the stock market futures began to move significantly in Trump’s favor. It wasn’t even 9pm yet. That was a tell. Somehow, the markets are usually right. It’s not absolute, but it’s pretty good. Our election model was wrong for the first time since 1992. It’s […]
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Date: November 6, 2024
Markets Looking Bullish Post-Election
Super excited to join my friend, Tim Lammers, on FOX61’s morning show at 10:15am discussing our presidential election model, what the markets are pricing in and which groups will benefit each candidate’s victory. T minus one day until the election. I can’t tell you how happy I will be when it’s over. Goodbye TV ads. Adios SPAM texts and emails. This is probably naive, but I hope kindness and respect return. Last week began the strongest seasonal period of the […]
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Date: November 4, 2024
Election Model Tightens With Weak Employment & Market Selloff
T minus 4 days until the election. I hope to send out emails and/or videos over the weekend and then most days next week. After my last email about our election model I was amazed that people completely ignored my comments and sent me chirping, nasty emails. The model is 100% unemotional. It doesn’t care about policy, opinions, polls nor feelings. It certainly doesn’t care who I am voting for. It simply scores recent economic data along with three time […]
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Date: November 1, 2024
***Q3 Client Update***
A quick update on our presidential election model which has had a strong track record over the years. The model was last wrong in 1992. It has been dusted off and I am running every other day this week. Then I will run it every day into Tuesday. Kamala Harris scores the point for the economy. That’s unlikely to change with the few pieces of data coming out over the coming few days. The stock market times series is not […]
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Date: October 30, 2024
Markets Firm As Election Draws Closer – Some Model Inputs
Greetings from Dallas where I am attending my semi-annual industry conference, moderating a few panels and catching up with old friends and colleagues. A group of us had dinner last night and I got to spend lots of time with my friend and former partner, Dave Moenning who among the great guys I know in the industry. While the formal presentations are fantastic, there is nothing better than networking to learn how people run their business, their successes and failures. […]
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Date: October 28, 2024
Mastering Retirement With Advanced Planning Strategies for Affluent Investors
Retirement planning for high-net-worth individuals presents unique challenges. With substantial portfolios and complex tax considerations, the stakes are high, and the need for precise planning is paramount. For over 30 years, Heritage Capital has provided Connecticut financial planning services, helping affluent individuals retire confidently. Through active investment management and comprehensive planning, we help manage risks so our clients enjoy a successful retirement, no matter what the markets or life bring. This guide is a proactive approach to managing market uncertainties […]
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Date: October 28, 2024
