Tax-Efficient Investment Strategies: 4 Key Ways To Minimize Taxes
We’re all familiar with the old adage about the two certainties in life: death and taxes. Also, as income rises, so does the tax burden, and now there’s growing concern about potential tax increases in the future. Without the right strategies, your investment returns and overall financial plan may fall short of your goals. This is why focusing on tax-efficient investing is important, especially during market volatility and when approaching retirement or already retired. At Heritage Capital, we’ve been helping […]
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Date: November 11, 2024
Digesting The Post-Election / Fed Moves
Election out of the way. Fed out of the way. Q3 earnings season mostly over. Not many catalysts for a while. And that’s just the way I like it. Markets need to calm down and digest. Investors’ emotions need to recover. It’s been a whirlwind. As expected the Fed cut interest rates on Thursday and Jay Powell said he would not resign if Trump asked him. Markets didn’t really seem to care. The Fed made a mistake by cutting 0.50% […]
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Date: November 8, 2024
Model Strikes Out – Major Victory – Markets Caught Off Guard – Don’t Buy Everything
Well, so much to cover, so bleary-eyed. I always stay up way too late waiting and then information seems to slow to a crawl. Early in the evening, I watched three independent betting lines and the stock market futures began to move significantly in Trump’s favor. It wasn’t even 9pm yet. That was a tell. Somehow, the markets are usually right. It’s not absolute, but it’s pretty good. Our election model was wrong for the first time since 1992. It’s […]
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Date: November 6, 2024
Markets Looking Bullish Post-Election
Super excited to join my friend, Tim Lammers, on FOX61’s morning show at 10:15am discussing our presidential election model, what the markets are pricing in and which groups will benefit each candidate’s victory. T minus one day until the election. I can’t tell you how happy I will be when it’s over. Goodbye TV ads. Adios SPAM texts and emails. This is probably naive, but I hope kindness and respect return. Last week began the strongest seasonal period of the […]
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Date: November 4, 2024
Election Model Tightens With Weak Employment & Market Selloff
T minus 4 days until the election. I hope to send out emails and/or videos over the weekend and then most days next week. After my last email about our election model I was amazed that people completely ignored my comments and sent me chirping, nasty emails. The model is 100% unemotional. It doesn’t care about policy, opinions, polls nor feelings. It certainly doesn’t care who I am voting for. It simply scores recent economic data along with three time […]
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Date: November 1, 2024
***Q3 Client Update***
A quick update on our presidential election model which has had a strong track record over the years. The model was last wrong in 1992. It has been dusted off and I am running every other day this week. Then I will run it every day into Tuesday. Kamala Harris scores the point for the economy. That’s unlikely to change with the few pieces of data coming out over the coming few days. The stock market times series is not […]
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Date: October 30, 2024
Markets Firm As Election Draws Closer – Some Model Inputs
Greetings from Dallas where I am attending my semi-annual industry conference, moderating a few panels and catching up with old friends and colleagues. A group of us had dinner last night and I got to spend lots of time with my friend and former partner, Dave Moenning who among the great guys I know in the industry. While the formal presentations are fantastic, there is nothing better than networking to learn how people run their business, their successes and failures. […]
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Date: October 28, 2024
Mastering Retirement With Advanced Planning Strategies for Affluent Investors
Retirement planning for high-net-worth individuals presents unique challenges. With substantial portfolios and complex tax considerations, the stakes are high, and the need for precise planning is paramount. For over 30 years, Heritage Capital has provided Connecticut financial planning services, helping affluent individuals retire confidently. Through active investment management and comprehensive planning, we help manage risks so our clients enjoy a successful retirement, no matter what the markets or life bring. This guide is a proactive approach to managing market uncertainties […]
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Date: October 28, 2024
Wanna Know Who Will Win The Election?
The election is 11 days away and I will likely be commenting on it in each blog until then. As you know, my thesis has always been that elections absolutely do not matter for the markets nor economy until we get to November. All year long, all this posturing and fear mongering has been absurd and annoying. These pundits with Harris and Trump portfolios. They know not of what they speak. 100 years of data suggest that’s it’s all a […]
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Date: October 25, 2024
Volatility Stubbornly High – Proven Wrong Quickly
By the slightest margin, stocks closed for the second day in a row, breaking a 30+ day streak. Does that really matter? I don’t think so. Seasonals are weak this week, but nothing powerful. It has been a real nothing burger this month which probably means something will come out of the blue. Retreading an old topic, the Volatility Index (VIX) is below. With stocks at new highs, the VIX should not even be a teenager, let alone stubbornly close […]
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Date: October 23, 2024
When Paid Actors Tell You The Market Can’t Go Down
The markets open the week with a range of all-time highs. Furthermore, lots of folks shared that the stock market hasn’t had back to back down days in more than 30 days. That is the epitome of strong momentum and buying every dip. Since the mini-crash on August 5th, there have been only two decent down days. I think that’s going to change this week. This rally has flown in the face of seasonal factors which argued for weakness in […]
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Date: October 21, 2024
How Active Management Helps With Social Security and Market Volatility
While Social Security can be an important source of income, it often falls short of covering all expenses—especially with rising taxes and inflation. For many high-net-worth individuals, relying on investments to make up the difference can be stressful with increasing market volatility. Active management offers a solution by helping protect your investments from market swings while pursuing growth opportunities, thereby creating a more stable approach to retirement planning. At Heritage Capital, we specialize in active investment management and strategies for […]
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Date: October 21, 2024
Slow Grind Higher, Bonds Trying, Crude Not So Much
Happy Friday! No matter how many times people argue with me, I am not changing my position. The election has almost no bearing on the markets nor economy until at least Halloween, if at all until the big day. Sorry not sorry. Data bear that out. Many of you know that we run a purely quantitative election model based on market performance over three time periods as well as recent economic data. The model has correctly predicted every election since […]
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Date: October 18, 2024
Canary In The Coal Mine – What’s Up With Semis?
The stock market encountered its first real shot across the bow on Tuesday when international semiconductor stock, ASML, surprised with a revenue warning during trading hours. No one needs any training in finance to figure out where the announcement occurred on the chart below. The action was swift and punishing. The question is whether this is idiosyncratic or industry wide. As many of you know except for a brief period starting with the mini-crash on August 5th, we have shied […]
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Date: October 16, 2024
Small & Mid Cap Stocks Leading
On Friday the “other” stocks rallied and in a big way. Last week I wrote about the strong opportunity in mid and small caps. Both indices were large and in charge on Friday. That continues the quiet trend I have written about since the end of Q2. Let’s take a look at the NASDAQ 100 relative to the Russell 2000 and then the S&P 400. The chart below is one divided by the other. When the line is going up, […]
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Date: October 14, 2024
The High-Net-Worth Playbook: Changing Financial Advisors With Confidence
Do you feel like your financial advisor isn’t as engaged or transparent as you’d like? Whether it’s a lack of communication, poor performance, or high fees that don’t seem justified, maybe you’ve reached a point where you realize it’s time for a change. Switching financial advisors can feel like a disruption, especially if you’ve worked with the same person for years. You might even worry that changing your advisor feels disloyal. But your financial future—and your family’s—comes first. It’s important […]
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Date: October 14, 2024
Market Still Poised To Move Higher
Another earnings season starts today as JP Morgan and Wells Fargo are out of the gate first. We have owned the former in our Unloved Gems strategy since inception in 2018 and I don’t think we’ve ever owned the latter. As I wrote the other day, stocks still seem poised to move higher. Both inflation gauges released this week were cool and that should help a breakout to the upside. I think small and mid caps stock look the most […]
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Date: October 11, 2024
Price Poised For Upside – Not All Is Strong
My good friend, Helene Meisler, who is a great read on Twitter noticed last week that the stock market has had a pattern of up, down, up, down for many days. Each day she wrote about it, I thought she was jinxing it and it would end. I think it’s now 11 straight days of this pattern and I am sure it will end today. Why? Because I decided to mention it. Week two of October has historically been down […]
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Date: October 9, 2024
Does The Government Manipulate Economic Data?
The conspiracy theorists are out in full force. On Friday the government announced that the economy created 254,000 new jobs, far outpacing the 150,000 that was expected. Since it was the last employment report until the election, plenty of folks are crying foul and manipulation. However, just a few short months ago, we learned that the government revised the prior year lower by almost 1,000,000 jobs which had been overstated. Here’s my take. I do not believe the government screws […]
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Date: October 7, 2024
Q4 Setting Up For The Bulls – Buy Weakness
On Monday I published some short-term seasonal stats about October week by week. So far, this seasonally strong week isn’t panning out. I want to pivot to Q4 and why I believe weakness should be bought. Here is an interesting study. When the S&P 500 is up 10-20% through September 30th, October and the fourth quarter median returns look like this. October +1.6% which runs counter to what I published on Monday about Octobers in general. If this week is […]
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Date: October 2, 2024
