Small & Mid Cap Stocks Leading
On Friday the “other” stocks rallied and in a big way. Last week I wrote about the strong opportunity in mid and small caps. Both indices were large and in charge on Friday. That continues the quiet trend I have written about since the end of Q2. Let’s take a look at the NASDAQ 100 relative to the Russell 2000 and then the S&P 400. The chart below is one divided by the other. When the line is going up, […]
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Date: October 14, 2024
The High-Net-Worth Playbook: Changing Financial Advisors With Confidence
Do you feel like your financial advisor isn’t as engaged or transparent as you’d like? Whether it’s a lack of communication, poor performance, or high fees that don’t seem justified, maybe you’ve reached a point where you realize it’s time for a change. Switching financial advisors can feel like a disruption, especially if you’ve worked with the same person for years. You might even worry that changing your advisor feels disloyal. But your financial future—and your family’s—comes first. It’s important […]
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Date: October 14, 2024
Market Still Poised To Move Higher
Another earnings season starts today as JP Morgan and Wells Fargo are out of the gate first. We have owned the former in our Unloved Gems strategy since inception in 2018 and I don’t think we’ve ever owned the latter. As I wrote the other day, stocks still seem poised to move higher. Both inflation gauges released this week were cool and that should help a breakout to the upside. I think small and mid caps stock look the most […]
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Date: October 11, 2024
Price Poised For Upside – Not All Is Strong
My good friend, Helene Meisler, who is a great read on Twitter noticed last week that the stock market has had a pattern of up, down, up, down for many days. Each day she wrote about it, I thought she was jinxing it and it would end. I think it’s now 11 straight days of this pattern and I am sure it will end today. Why? Because I decided to mention it. Week two of October has historically been down […]
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Date: October 9, 2024
Does The Government Manipulate Economic Data?
The conspiracy theorists are out in full force. On Friday the government announced that the economy created 254,000 new jobs, far outpacing the 150,000 that was expected. Since it was the last employment report until the election, plenty of folks are crying foul and manipulation. However, just a few short months ago, we learned that the government revised the prior year lower by almost 1,000,000 jobs which had been overstated. Here’s my take. I do not believe the government screws […]
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Date: October 7, 2024
Q4 Setting Up For The Bulls – Buy Weakness
On Monday I published some short-term seasonal stats about October week by week. So far, this seasonally strong week isn’t panning out. I want to pivot to Q4 and why I believe weakness should be bought. Here is an interesting study. When the S&P 500 is up 10-20% through September 30th, October and the fourth quarter median returns look like this. October +1.6% which runs counter to what I published on Monday about Octobers in general. If this week is […]
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Date: October 2, 2024
Medicare Made Simple: Your Guide to Advantage Plan Enrollment
Congratulations if you’re turning 65 in 2024. You will qualify for Medicare benefits sometime during the year. Medicare Part A and B form the foundation of Medicare coverage for eligible individuals, typically those aged 65 and older and some younger individuals with disabilities or specific conditions. Medicare Part A primarily covers hospital insurance. This includes inpatient hospital stays, care in a skilled nursing facility, hospice care, and home health care. Most people don’t pay a premium for Part A if […]
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Date: October 1, 2024
Here Comes Big Bad October
Today is the last day of the month and quarter. I know my readers are astute enough to know that we may see some “curious” action, especially late in the day. Portfolio games may be abound and they tend to get unwound over the next day or two. I know I say this all the time, but I can’t believe how fast the first three quarters flew by. My grandmother was among the smartest people I ever knew. When I […]
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Date: September 30, 2024
Weakest Week Of The Year? Phooey!
For what has been the weakest week of the year, there has been a certain lack of teeth and downside over the first four days without much looking lower today. As I always say, seasonal trends, no matter how powerful, are just headwinds and tailwinds. You can’t react to them in a vacuum. On the flip side, the markets haven’t really accelerated higher either. The S&P 500 looks like it’s just drifting higher into month and quarter-end. It seems like […]
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Date: September 27, 2024
Timing Social Security Benefits: Strategies for Affluent Retirees
As a fee-only financial advisor in Connecticut, one of the most frequent questions I receive from people I meet is: Should I claim my Social Security benefit early or wait to maximize the monthly benefit? It’s a tricky question because every affluent retiree has different financial circumstances, needs, and goals. The work history of both spouses may also impact the answer. Unfortunately, many retirees aren’t ready to make this important decision, and the Social Security Administration (SSA) has no incentive […]
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Date: September 27, 2024
Volatility Low As More All-Time Highs Click In Weakest Week
For what has traditionally been the weakest week of the year, so far so good for the bulls. I need to do some work on what happens after the weakest week goes by without weakness. As the Dow Industrials and S&P 500 have hit fresh, all-time highs, the markets have really quieted down. Take a look at the Volatility Index (VIX) below. It is a solid teenager and looks to be headed lower. However, I would be surprised if it […]
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Date: September 25, 2024
Weakest Week Of The Year Is Here – Fed Wrong
The Fed slashed interest rates for the first time since March 2020. While I thought 1/4% was best for an initial move, a very confident Jay Powell thought otherwise. I tried reminding him that the last two times the Fed began with a 1/2% cut didn’t end so well. One was January 2001 and stocks plummeted another 40% with recession hitting post-9/11. The other was September 2007. The bull market peaked a month later and then collapsed 58% into March […]
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Date: September 23, 2024
***SPECIAL Fed Update – 1/4 Point Best – A Look At The Last 35 Years Of New Cutting Cycles***
The stock market model for the day is plus or minus 0.50% and then a rally after 2pm. However, with the S&P 500 being up 6 straight days into the Fed meeting, much of the energy has already been used and the study has been reduced to a coin flip. Additionally, a potential set up for a decline may be in play after the Fed meeting. The FOMC is going to cut interest rates for the first time since March […]
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Date: September 18, 2024
Russell Catching Up – No Unicorns Nor Rainbows Elsewhere
The bulls completed last week with another bang. It was a good and fun week in bull land. The Russell 2000 small caps were the big stars. Recall that I offered them as well as the S&P 400 as good opportunities to play catch up. While it’s great to see, I have enough battle scars from chasing these guys to last a lifetime. So many times over the past decade, the Russell has quickly melted higher only to be hit […]
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Date: September 16, 2024
5 Ways to Protect Your Wealth During Periods of Market Volatility
When markets are unpredictable, it can feel like your financial security is at the mercy of forces beyond your control. As a high-net-worth individual, you may be seeking the best ways to protect and nurture your hard-earned wealth when markets are volatile and unpredictable. While you can’t control the financial markets, you can control how you invest your assets and respond to various economic scenarios. Whether you’re considering switching financial advisors or exploring the best way to fine-tune your retirement […]
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Date: September 16, 2024
Small & Mids Offer “Value” Here
Wednesday saw an unusually strong reversal from early losses to gains. I saw lots of folks commenting about the last time we saw -1%+ losses turn into +1%+ gains was right at the bear market low in October 2022. To me, that’s irrelevant. Stocks had declined 20-30% in 2022 and in 2024 they were just a few percent from all-time highs. Context. People arguing that another bull market blast off of 20%+ is here is absurd. With that said, the […]
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Date: September 13, 2024
Economy Weaker – Inflation Should Cool – Harris’ Debate
Today is 9-11. With the presidential debate last night and inflation today, I fear that remembrance will be downplayed today. That’s sad and disappointing. One of my childhood and high school friends along with a fraternity brother were murdered that day. Most of us know someone who was killed or knows someone who knows someone who was killed. On behalf of our clients Heritage Capital continues to support the great work done by The Tunnels to Towers organization. Never Forget… […]
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Date: September 11, 2024
Pullback Not Over – More Selling To Come – Dow Theory Has Been Warning
Stocks sold off hard for the second straight employment report. Recall that the mini-crash was August 5th which was on the heels of an ugly day for the bulls, the monthly jobs report. It remains September which is a seasonally poor period and we have the election overhang. Friday was ugly. The bulls can’t spin it any other way. The markets are on their way to oversold and then setting up for a good Q4, but they are not there […]
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Date: September 9, 2024
Was It Just a Bounce From the August Mini-Crash?
Two things we know. September is the worst month of the year from a seasonal perspective. And September to mid-October is seasonally weak in election years. Two weeks ago I mentioned that if the NASDAQ 100 and semiconductors were about to fail, it was going to get ugly in the short-term. I think it’s safe to say that they have failed as you can see both charts below. With the two negative seasonal patterns and the failure, both the semis […]
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Date: September 6, 2024
Friday Was All About Window Dressing & Month-End Mark Up
Welcome back from the kinda, sorta end of summer. I hope you had lots of fun with family and friends. We saw friends Friday night, went to a really fun 50th party on Saturday and had a huge BBQ on Sunday. I tested out my 69 day rested shoulder on Monday without any issues. What a relief. I was so happy. Friday was month-end and ahead of a long weekend. My sense is that liquidity was poor and there was […]
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Date: September 3, 2024
