Volatility About To Spike With Fed Meeting?
Although it’s August with the markets in full summer doldrum mode, the Fed is meeting this week in their annual Jackson Hole retreat where we should get a very clear picture about the potential for a rate cut in September. Markets are pricing in an almost certainty of this. More on Wednesday. Volatility remains depressed at the 15 level which is very typical during a mature bull market. Until proven otherwise, forays above 20 are buying opportunities for stocks. There […]
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Date: August 18, 2025
Retirement Planning and the One Big Beautiful Bill
This blog post examines the “One Big Beautiful Bill” (OBBB) and its potential influence on your tax and investment strategies, both currently and in the future. This information is particularly relevant if you are nearing retirement or are already retired with at least $500,000 in investable assets. As you shift from saving for retirement to taking distributions from your retirement assets, various tax liabilities come into play. Your goal should be to preserve as many assets as possible to sustain […]
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Date: August 18, 2025
Inflation Soars At The Producer Level – Stocks & Bonds Don’t Crash
While inflation at the consumer level was tame in July, it soared at the producer level to numbers not seen since 2022. Pundits and the media had exaggerated initial reactions with all kinds of narratives being spun. I was suspicious. That kind of spike did not add up for me. While I have been saying that a warmer month or two was to be expected, July was hot. I also wanted to see how bad the markets reacted. With that […]
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Date: August 15, 2025
Volatility Nice, Markets Solid, Inflation Tame
I guess the dog days of summer have firmly set in for the markets. It wasn’t long ago when volatility as measured by the VIX was at historic extremes above 60. It’s been in the teens for most of the summer and heading lower. VIX below 20 is a relatively easy environment to invest in when compared to the 30s, 40s, 50s and higher. However, never forget that high volatility almost always leads to lower volatility and vice versa. It’s […]
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Date: August 12, 2025
Lots Of Opps Building
After the two-day reversal and pullback, stocks have bounced, getting close to the area where they should fail if they are going to fail. I still think the lows from last week will be exceeded this quarter, but like everything else, I will not die on that hill. The other day I posted a chart of stock making new 52-week lows to see how much deterioration was under the surface. Someone asked about stocks making new highs. Here it is […]
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Date: August 8, 2025
Looking For More Downside
The major stock market indices saw sharp reversals last Thursday. And there was a whole single day of follow through on Friday. So far, that’s been it. We are currently seeing a bounce from that little pullback. I still think there should be more downside this quarter, but I am certainly not going to die on that hill. In a perfect world, the bounce ends this week and then we see a move below last week’s low. Looking at the […]
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Date: August 6, 2025
Menagerie Of News To End Last Week
***NOTE: I thought this was sent out on Monday morning. It turns out that the blog’s platform crashed and I didn’t know until today. Lots happened last week, especially to end the week. I am happy to have finished my Q2 report to clients and then enjoyed some golf time in Scotland with 7 friends playing the best the country has to offer. My travel mates and the wait staff thought I was unusual when I broke out my laptop […]
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Date: August 5, 2025
***Q2 Client Update***
The second quarter of 2025 was one of those rare and very interesting periods on more than one front. However, the quarter really played out as the first few weeks of April and then the rest of the quarter. The world came into Q2 acutely focused on what President Trump deemed “Liberation Day”, that day when the administration’s trade policy was going to free the U.S. from its dependence on much of its international trade as well as level the […]
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Date: August 1, 2025
Is Healthcare Inflation Threatening Your Retirement Plan?
Rising healthcare costs are forcing many high-net-worth individuals to reevaluate their retirement plan strategies. Even if you have $500,000 or more in investable assets, you may wonder: Will healthcare eat away at the retirement assets I’ve worked so hard to accumulate? One of the biggest threats today is the growing and often underestimated cost of healthcare in retirement, particularly in the latter years when there is a possibility for Assisted Living, Skilled Nursing, or Memory Care. In this article, we’ll […]
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Date: July 31, 2025
How Recent Tax Changes Impact Your Wealth in Connecticut
If you have $500,000 or more in investable assets, the recently passed One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB) may have more impact on your financial future than you realize. While many headlines focus on broader tax cuts and spending reforms, the fine print includes several provisions directly impacting high-net-worth individuals, especially those approaching or are already in retirement. From expanded retiree deductions and adjustments to the SALT cap to enhanced estate tax thresholds and shifting income phaseouts, the OBBB brings both […]
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Date: July 29, 2025
A Pullback Will Come
Stocks continue to creep higher as I discussed the other day. We have the Fed meeting today and tomorrow with the announcement of no rate cut on Wednesday at 2pm. However, the markets will be looking for signs that a cut is coming this fall. We are also the heart of Q2 earnings season and the stock market has been unusually quiet. The mega tech companies are on deck and they usually provide some fireworks. The stock market looks a […]
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Date: July 29, 2025
Stocks Grind Higher As Sentiment Becomes Giddy & Greedy
The stock market has morphed into what I like to call a “grinder” or “creeper” market, meaning that stocks just grind or creep higher without any pullbacks of more than 1% or so. This behavior is usually seen during the second leg of a new bull market rally after the masses did widespread selling at or near the bottom, followed by a vicious initial leg of the rally where the majority believes it is just a bounce with more selling […]
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Date: July 25, 2025
Is Market Participation A Warning Sign?
Happy Monday! Well, are Mondays really ever “happy”, especially such a nice weekend? FYI, my publishing schedule may be a bit off over the next two weeks as I am traveling and trying to complete my Q2 report to clients following the webinar. As you know I have been less bullish the last few posts, but not bearish. I think a 2-5% pullback is setting up this quarter. In all likelihood it will be one to buy. I have reviewed […]
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Date: July 21, 2025
Looking For Downside Confirmation
On Wednesday I wrote some of our models turning down on the stock market and that action would be forthcoming, which it was on our capital appreciation strategies. We jettisoned some laggards and losers and trimmed position sizes in some big winners. Our aggressive strategies remain solidly positive for now. When this happens our strategies usually higher turnover as they jockey around. However, we still need to see downside confirmation before taking more serious protective measures. That looks to be […]
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Date: July 18, 2025
Bears Get Something To Chew On
Stocks have been on a tear. No sane person could argue against that. Pullbacks have been almost nil since mid-April. And volatility? Well, the VIX has been below 20 for a month, signaling an “easier” time to be invested, even with leverage. Remember, VIX above 30 makes it tough to invest. VIX above 40 makes it really difficult to invest. Above that, well, you can fill in the blank. On Tuesday we saw the major stock market indices jump at […]
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Date: July 16, 2025
Looking At Industrials, Transports And Utilities
You know your day (and a Monday) isn’t off on the right foot when you come downstairs and almost go flying as you step with both feet into a puddle that turned out to be dog urine. Then, my Windows 11 upgrade from 10 deleted all search capabilities in Outlook and rendered my planning software useless. Not exactly the best start to the day and week. There was more tariff news over the weekend. On again. Off again. Same story. […]
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Date: July 14, 2025
What My 4 Key Sectors Say
With the stock market or near all-time highs, let’s drill down and focus on my four key sectors to further gauge market health. Recall, we recently looked at new highs and then the NYSE A/D to asses market participation. The semiconductors are first. While they are not yet at new highs, it’s hard to argue that they are lagging or holding the market back. I do expect new highs this year. Banks are next. Remember all those Chicken Littles crying […]
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Date: July 11, 2025
NASDAQ 100 Leading Like A Champ
Another quick blog as I get ready for media today and tomorrow in NYC as well as prepare for our quarterly webinar series tonight at 8pm. The NASDAQ 100 has been leading the rally which is a good thing. As I wrote the other day, new highs have been expanding, also a good thing. The NDX below is but a day from new highs. I cannot believe the only pullback we will see has already been seen this week. That […]
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Date: July 9, 2025
New Highs & New Lows
I hope everyone had a great long July 4th weekend! This is a super quick update as I am trying to wrap up end of month, quarter and half year reconciliation. One of the main complaints from the bears about the rally is that not enough stocks are hitting new highs. And they have been correct. That’s typical of year three in a bull market. However, the chart below shows a resurgence in new highs late last week. While it’s […]
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Date: July 7, 2025
Goldilocks Remains In The House – Bears Decimated
It’s the end of a holiday-shortened week. I love these weeks. Today should be on the quiet side with many folks taking off early or the whole day or the entire week. As you would imagine so much of the geopolitical complaints has totally calmed down. New, all-time highs will do that to folks. My Twitter feed stopped crying about 401Ks turning into 201Ks. As I continue to write, I beg and implore folks to ignore geopolitics when it comes […]
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Date: July 3, 2025
