Finally A Down Day – Sentiment Back To Greedy
The stock market finally had a down day, albeit a small one where the damage was seen in the mid and small caps. The media can stop with the nonsense about how many up days in a row the S&P 500 has seen. The bottom line is that momentum has been strong and some thrusts off of the mini-crash low on August 5th have been triggered. While that’s relatively unimportant for the short-term, it does typically insulate the stock market […]
Read More
Date: August 21, 2024
Earthquake Or Rogue Wave – A Look At 1997 & 1998 For Clues
Continuing on the theme I mentioned on Friday about an earthquake or rogue wave, I went back to the two international events that caused these in the 1990s. The first chart below is from 1997 when the Asian currency crisis hit in October. On that day in October the Dow Industrials saw their single largest point decline in history. Of course, on a percentage basis, it didn’t rank all that high. After an all-time high in early October and a […]
Read More
Date: August 19, 2024
Early or Wrong?
The stock market has had a strong rally, at least price-wise since the earthquake 11 days ago. My thesis has been for several more aftershocks over the ensuing weeks and possibly longer. One thing I cannot argue with is the acceleration in what I have labeled as a bounce. I also have said that I would be surprised if the stock market went straight back to new highs. Aside from one aftershock last week, the bulls have powered ahead unabated. […]
Read More
Date: August 16, 2024
Big Run Up – Sell a Higher Open
The rally off the earthquake low 9 days has been impressive price-wise, but anemic volume-wise. It looks like an absence of sellers versus an abundance of buyers. I have used the rally to reposition some portfolios and reduce exposure in others. I continue to believe there are more aftershocks coming later this month and in September. The securities that worry me the most are the ones that fell into last Monday’s mini-crash, but haven’t rallied with the market. We have […]
Read More
Date: August 14, 2024
Healthy Pullback & Unimpressive Bounce So Far
I noticed that the S&P 500 has been down four straight weeks while still in an uptrend. That doesn’t happen all that often, but it is a plain vanilla pullback in a bull market. From peak to valley on a closing basis we have seen the major indices correct: Dow Industrials -6% S&P 500 -8.50% S&P 400 -8% Russell 2000 -10% NASDAQ 100 -12% When we downgraded our 1-3 month market view I said I did not expect a 10% […]
Read More
Date: August 12, 2024
Aftershocks Continue – Looking For Volume & Great BBQ
After Monday’s earthquake we saw a solid aftershock on Wednesday as stocks gave up a big bounce back gain to close moderately lower. Thursday reversed the reversal with 85% of the trading volume coming on stocks going up on the day, a good sign. However, as you can see in the chart below all the way on the right, the rally has come on diminishing volume which is a warning sign. Another “however”, this is not unusual. It’s the next […]
Read More
Date: August 9, 2024
Monday Was An Earthquake – Aftershocks Coming & Then All-Time Highs
Monday changed a lot of things in the stock market. You can call it a mini-crash or a woosh or an earthquake. One thing is for sure, days like that, especially after historically low volatility regimes, can shake investors’ confidence to the core. People react emotionally and usually not in a good way. They sell when they should be holding or buying. My thesis has been very clear. We downgraded the stock market over the 1-3 month period. We sold […]
Read More
Date: August 7, 2024
Bad News Is Now, Well, Bad News – Markets Manic
On Friday, the employment report showed a gain of 114,000 new jobs in July. The unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, its highest level since October 2021. Both were weaker than expected. However, market reaction was a whole lot worse than those numbers would have indicated and that suggests more selling on Monday, perhaps even high magnitude selling. For all those crying for a rate cut, thinking it would just propel risk assets higher, bad economic news is now bad news […]
Read More
Date: August 5, 2024
Bulls Wounded – New Lows Coming Soon
I am sure I am wrong, but I don’t recall two such opposite days like Wednesday and Thursday since 2020 and 2008 before that. Wednesday was insanely strong from a price perspective, especially in the beaten down tech area. Thursday was super weak across the board for the most part. In hindsight I think the bulls used cover from earnings to window dress portfolios for month-end and that’s it. The NASDAQ 100 is below. In real time, Wednesday looked like […]
Read More
Date: August 2, 2024
***SPECIAL Fed Day Update – High Probability Opportunity***
Wednesday concludes the FOMC’s meeting with the Fed standing pat but likely offering dovish language in preparation of a September interest rate cut. The stock market model for the day is plus or minus 0.50% and then a rally post 2pm. Given the recent pullback as well as Tuesday’s action, the odds of a Fed day rally have greatly increased to 90% which means going long or adding to positions at Tuesday’s close. The challenge is that there are a […]
Read More
Date: July 31, 2024
The Down & Outs Are Up & In – Huge Week Ahead
Friday saw the bulls come back to work after the pullback had reached deep enough for them to see value. I am not sure it has run its course, but I always try to be nimble enough to take action and not get stuck in a mindset. Since March I have written about a number of big picture portfolio moves as we have reduced exposure where it had been over 100% as well as reduced or sold off AI and […]
Read More
Date: July 29, 2024
Enhancing Social Security With Active Management in Market Volatility
With inflation, healthcare costs, and rising home expenses, including high property taxes, Connecticut retirees struggle to cover their monthly needs with Social Security and pensions. Many are turning to their savings and investments to make ends meet. With so much economic uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, and concerns about Social Security’s future stability, how would a major stock market downturn affect your investments and retirement income? Many so-called financial gurus recommend a static, passive investment strategy that tracks a market index. But […]
Read More
Date: July 29, 2024
Lots Going On Beneath The Surface Of The Pullback
Happy Friday. Let’s talk pullback and what to glean from it. So far here is what has occurred. Dow Industrials -3% S&P 500 -4% S&P 400 -4% Russell 2000 -3.5% NASDAQ 100 -9% On the surface you may conclude that the pullback is basically even except for the NASDAQ 100. But you would be wrong. There is something important beneath the surface that the raw numbers do not show. First, all indices did not peak on the same day. The […]
Read More
Date: July 26, 2024
Not Ready To Upgrade 1-3 Month View Just Yet
Two weeks ago I downgraded my 1-3 month view of the stock market as you know, looking for a 4-7% pullback. However, we also saw an epic surge in participation which was one of the concerns I had. I wasn’t sure how that would all play out. I shared that for the first time since 2018 I think, we had sold out of all of our sector semiconductor position. We also reduced position sizes in Nvidia and Tesla. Yesterday, we […]
Read More
Date: July 24, 2024
Connecticut Retirement Planning: Active Management vs. Traditional Strategies
Like many Connecticut retirees, are you worried about how rising inflation, market volatility, and higher taxes will affect your financial security? With geopolitical issues, uncertainty over the U.S. presidential elections, and potential changes in economic and tax policies, anxiety about retirement savings is higher than ever. Many are rethinking their traditional “set it and forget it” investment strategy due to all the unpredictability. Traditional investment approaches may work when the stock market is going up, but they often lack the […]
Read More
Date: July 22, 2024
Biden Out, Harris In – Does It Matter For The Markets?
Two weekends ago we had an assassination attempt on a former president. This past weekend the current president walks away from his incumbent race. And the U.S. is supposed to be the standard bearer for the world. Yeesh! I did learn something new about politics this weekend. All those who were reporting that President Biden would step down on Sunday afternoon actually knew what they were talking about and those folks have credibility. All those folks who vehemently and defiantly […]
Read More
Date: July 22, 2024
Bears Making Some Noise – Or At Least Trying
Roughly a week ago, I downgraded my 1-3 month outlook on the stock market, citing a number of participation and sentiment concerns. The same day, we saw a once in a million to billion year event regarding the Russell 2000 and S&P 500. Since then, the small and mid cap stocks have strongly led at the expense of the mega caps, especially technology and AI. Over the past few days, that has morphed into the modest pullback I have written […]
Read More
Date: July 19, 2024
BYE BYE Semiconductors, HELLO Small Caps! Generational Move!
Last Thursday, I wrote a blog downgrading my 1-3 month view of the stock market. That very day we saw a 6 sigma event or one in a million to billion year event that last occurred on October 10, 2008. My top concern had been eliminated which was the narrowness and diminishing participation in the rally. However, all concerns were not eliminated. While we did not make any major portfolio changes we did take some actions to harvest some acorns […]
Read More
Date: July 17, 2024
Market Reaction To The Horrific Acts
With the unspeakable and heinous acts over the weekend, the presidential race has widened according to the polls taken. Additionally, the RNC convention begins tonight. This is important because it is likely that Donald Trump will take a commanding lead by the end of the week. It may be temporary, or not, but I fully expect the markets to pivot towards Trump 2.0 with stocks continuing the new theme of the “everything up market” that began last Thursday. Below is […]
Read More
Date: July 15, 2024
HOLY GEEZ!
Thursday was a day for the ages. It was one of those days that you only see a few times in your lifetime. Yes, your entire lifetime! In mathematical terms it was supposedly a 6 sigma event, meaning that it should only happen once in a million to billion years. I added the word “supposedly” because in my 35-year career I have seen enough 6 sigma events to know that what is supposed to happen mathematically and what does happen […]
Read More
Date: July 12, 2024
