Volatility Stubbornly High – Proven Wrong Quickly
By the slightest margin, stocks closed for the second day in a row, breaking a 30+ day streak. Does that really matter? I don’t think so. Seasonals are weak this week, but nothing powerful. It has been a real nothing burger this month which probably means something will come out of the blue. Retreading an old topic, the Volatility Index (VIX) is below. With stocks at new highs, the VIX should not even be a teenager, let alone stubbornly close […]
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Date: October 23, 2024
When Paid Actors Tell You The Market Can’t Go Down
The markets open the week with a range of all-time highs. Furthermore, lots of folks shared that the stock market hasn’t had back to back down days in more than 30 days. That is the epitome of strong momentum and buying every dip. Since the mini-crash on August 5th, there have been only two decent down days. I think that’s going to change this week. This rally has flown in the face of seasonal factors which argued for weakness in […]
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Date: October 21, 2024
How Active Management Helps With Social Security and Market Volatility
While Social Security can be an important source of income, it often falls short of covering all expenses—especially with rising taxes and inflation. For many high-net-worth individuals, relying on investments to make up the difference can be stressful with increasing market volatility. Active management offers a solution by helping protect your investments from market swings while pursuing growth opportunities, thereby creating a more stable approach to retirement planning. At Heritage Capital, we specialize in active investment management and strategies for […]
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Date: October 21, 2024
Slow Grind Higher, Bonds Trying, Crude Not So Much
Happy Friday! No matter how many times people argue with me, I am not changing my position. The election has almost no bearing on the markets nor economy until at least Halloween, if at all until the big day. Sorry not sorry. Data bear that out. Many of you know that we run a purely quantitative election model based on market performance over three time periods as well as recent economic data. The model has correctly predicted every election since […]
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Date: October 18, 2024
Canary In The Coal Mine – What’s Up With Semis?
The stock market encountered its first real shot across the bow on Tuesday when international semiconductor stock, ASML, surprised with a revenue warning during trading hours. No one needs any training in finance to figure out where the announcement occurred on the chart below. The action was swift and punishing. The question is whether this is idiosyncratic or industry wide. As many of you know except for a brief period starting with the mini-crash on August 5th, we have shied […]
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Date: October 16, 2024
Small & Mid Cap Stocks Leading
On Friday the “other” stocks rallied and in a big way. Last week I wrote about the strong opportunity in mid and small caps. Both indices were large and in charge on Friday. That continues the quiet trend I have written about since the end of Q2. Let’s take a look at the NASDAQ 100 relative to the Russell 2000 and then the S&P 400. The chart below is one divided by the other. When the line is going up, […]
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Date: October 14, 2024
The High-Net-Worth Playbook: Changing Financial Advisors With Confidence
Do you feel like your financial advisor isn’t as engaged or transparent as you’d like? Whether it’s a lack of communication, poor performance, or high fees that don’t seem justified, maybe you’ve reached a point where you realize it’s time for a change. Switching financial advisors can feel like a disruption, especially if you’ve worked with the same person for years. You might even worry that changing your advisor feels disloyal. But your financial future—and your family’s—comes first. It’s important […]
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Date: October 14, 2024
Market Still Poised To Move Higher
Another earnings season starts today as JP Morgan and Wells Fargo are out of the gate first. We have owned the former in our Unloved Gems strategy since inception in 2018 and I don’t think we’ve ever owned the latter. As I wrote the other day, stocks still seem poised to move higher. Both inflation gauges released this week were cool and that should help a breakout to the upside. I think small and mid caps stock look the most […]
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Date: October 11, 2024
Price Poised For Upside – Not All Is Strong
My good friend, Helene Meisler, who is a great read on Twitter noticed last week that the stock market has had a pattern of up, down, up, down for many days. Each day she wrote about it, I thought she was jinxing it and it would end. I think it’s now 11 straight days of this pattern and I am sure it will end today. Why? Because I decided to mention it. Week two of October has historically been down […]
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Date: October 9, 2024
Does The Government Manipulate Economic Data?
The conspiracy theorists are out in full force. On Friday the government announced that the economy created 254,000 new jobs, far outpacing the 150,000 that was expected. Since it was the last employment report until the election, plenty of folks are crying foul and manipulation. However, just a few short months ago, we learned that the government revised the prior year lower by almost 1,000,000 jobs which had been overstated. Here’s my take. I do not believe the government screws […]
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Date: October 7, 2024
Q4 Setting Up For The Bulls – Buy Weakness
On Monday I published some short-term seasonal stats about October week by week. So far, this seasonally strong week isn’t panning out. I want to pivot to Q4 and why I believe weakness should be bought. Here is an interesting study. When the S&P 500 is up 10-20% through September 30th, October and the fourth quarter median returns look like this. October +1.6% which runs counter to what I published on Monday about Octobers in general. If this week is […]
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Date: October 2, 2024
Medicare Made Simple: Your Guide to Advantage Plan Enrollment
Congratulations if you’re turning 65 in 2024. You will qualify for Medicare benefits sometime during the year. Medicare Part A and B form the foundation of Medicare coverage for eligible individuals, typically those aged 65 and older and some younger individuals with disabilities or specific conditions. Medicare Part A primarily covers hospital insurance. This includes inpatient hospital stays, care in a skilled nursing facility, hospice care, and home health care. Most people don’t pay a premium for Part A if […]
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Date: October 1, 2024
Here Comes Big Bad October
Today is the last day of the month and quarter. I know my readers are astute enough to know that we may see some “curious” action, especially late in the day. Portfolio games may be abound and they tend to get unwound over the next day or two. I know I say this all the time, but I can’t believe how fast the first three quarters flew by. My grandmother was among the smartest people I ever knew. When I […]
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Date: September 30, 2024
Weakest Week Of The Year? Phooey!
For what has been the weakest week of the year, there has been a certain lack of teeth and downside over the first four days without much looking lower today. As I always say, seasonal trends, no matter how powerful, are just headwinds and tailwinds. You can’t react to them in a vacuum. On the flip side, the markets haven’t really accelerated higher either. The S&P 500 looks like it’s just drifting higher into month and quarter-end. It seems like […]
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Date: September 27, 2024
Timing Social Security Benefits: Strategies for Affluent Retirees
As a fee-only financial advisor in Connecticut, one of the most frequent questions I receive from people I meet is: Should I claim my Social Security benefit early or wait to maximize the monthly benefit? It’s a tricky question because every affluent retiree has different financial circumstances, needs, and goals. The work history of both spouses may also impact the answer. Unfortunately, many retirees aren’t ready to make this important decision, and the Social Security Administration (SSA) has no incentive […]
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Date: September 27, 2024
Volatility Low As More All-Time Highs Click In Weakest Week
For what has traditionally been the weakest week of the year, so far so good for the bulls. I need to do some work on what happens after the weakest week goes by without weakness. As the Dow Industrials and S&P 500 have hit fresh, all-time highs, the markets have really quieted down. Take a look at the Volatility Index (VIX) below. It is a solid teenager and looks to be headed lower. However, I would be surprised if it […]
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Date: September 25, 2024
Weakest Week Of The Year Is Here – Fed Wrong
The Fed slashed interest rates for the first time since March 2020. While I thought 1/4% was best for an initial move, a very confident Jay Powell thought otherwise. I tried reminding him that the last two times the Fed began with a 1/2% cut didn’t end so well. One was January 2001 and stocks plummeted another 40% with recession hitting post-9/11. The other was September 2007. The bull market peaked a month later and then collapsed 58% into March […]
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Date: September 23, 2024
***SPECIAL Fed Update – 1/4 Point Best – A Look At The Last 35 Years Of New Cutting Cycles***
The stock market model for the day is plus or minus 0.50% and then a rally after 2pm. However, with the S&P 500 being up 6 straight days into the Fed meeting, much of the energy has already been used and the study has been reduced to a coin flip. Additionally, a potential set up for a decline may be in play after the Fed meeting. The FOMC is going to cut interest rates for the first time since March […]
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Date: September 18, 2024
Russell Catching Up – No Unicorns Nor Rainbows Elsewhere
The bulls completed last week with another bang. It was a good and fun week in bull land. The Russell 2000 small caps were the big stars. Recall that I offered them as well as the S&P 400 as good opportunities to play catch up. While it’s great to see, I have enough battle scars from chasing these guys to last a lifetime. So many times over the past decade, the Russell has quickly melted higher only to be hit […]
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Date: September 16, 2024
5 Ways to Protect Your Wealth During Periods of Market Volatility
When markets are unpredictable, it can feel like your financial security is at the mercy of forces beyond your control. As a high-net-worth individual, you may be seeking the best ways to protect and nurture your hard-earned wealth when markets are volatile and unpredictable. While you can’t control the financial markets, you can control how you invest your assets and respond to various economic scenarios. Whether you’re considering switching financial advisors or exploring the best way to fine-tune your retirement […]
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Date: September 16, 2024
