I Was Wrong
My head has been spinning this week. I definitely did not see the Fed discussing rate cuts in 2024. Was that the “pivot” the world has been hoping for all year? I don’t know. And frankly, I don’t care. We came into the Fed meeting with the spirit of our portfolios intact since early November. A few changes at the margin here and there. I thought there could be a 1-2% pullback between Thanksgiving and today as it is a […]
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Date: December 15, 2023
10 Signs It May Be Time to Break Up with Your Financial Advisor
The stakes are undeniably high when you entrust someone with the critical task of helping you manage your liquid wealth. This is even more true when you are nearing retirement and have more to lose. You basically get one opportunity to get it right. Many investors rate their financial advisor’s performance based on their results during the recent bull market. When you see your statement balances going up, that’s a good sign. You may think, “My financial advisor must be […]
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Date: December 15, 2023
Fed Rate Cut Next Move – Bears Remain Embarrassingly Wrong
Let’s start with the model for the day. The S&P 500 is most likely to be plus or minus 0.50% until 2pm and then rally. However, because the stock market has rallied sharply into Fed day and closed so strongly on Tuesday, the post-2pm strength has been muted away to a coin flip. Post-Fed Day, stocks are supposed to pause or pull back very mildly before another assault higher. So, as we have done all year, continue to buy weakness. […]
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Date: December 13, 2023
“Paul The Bear” – Doesn’t Really Ring
It was a good weekend. Skiing was nice, soft and springlike on Saturday. On Sunday, America’s Team kept rolling and beat the Eagles and the UCONN women looked a little bit better in beating UNC. I also ate like this was my last weekend in earth and my pants are a wee bit tighter this morning. The big employment report came out on Friday and market reaction was super muted. I guess the bulls won the day but volatility has […]
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Date: December 11, 2023
Muted Reaction From Employment Report – Value & Small Caps Quietly Leading
The monthly jobs report hit this morning and the economy created 199,000 new jobs, 9,000 more than expected. The unemployment rate dropped to 3.7% from 3.9% which is a surprise. I am struck by how muted market response has become to what was once considered the most important economic release of the month. Bond yields climbed and pre-market trading show some mild weakness for stocks, but neither was out of the ordinary for a normal day, let alone with this […]
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Date: December 8, 2023
A Look at Two Key Sectors as Markets Quiet Down
Markets have really quieted down as we get into the meat of December. That’s a plus for the bulls as the bears finally have some things on their side of the ledger to cling to. After such an amazingly powerful rally, the longer the bulls can hold off any meaningful pullback in stocks, the more likely the market will resolve itself higher sooner than later. As I have mentioned, we have a seasonal headwind for another week or two and […]
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Date: December 6, 2023
Future-Proofing Your Retirement: Tackling Economic Volatility in 2024
If you listen to the “talking heads” in the media these days, you’ll hear about the potential for a recession in 2024, continued inflation, higher-than-normal interest rates, and, if that isn’t enough, the impact of a presidential election year. It all adds up to an unpredictable market and some volatile conditions. So, what does this mean for your investments and retirement plans, and what can you do to prepare for these market conditions? Doing nothing may not be an option. […]
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Date: December 4, 2023
But Paul…
For most of the year, all we heard about was that 7 or 8 stocks were the only ones going up while 493 languished. That’s not exactly true, but you get the picture. Additionally, I consistently pushed back that if you know the market was being dominated by a handful of stocks, no one was preventing you from owning some. Bears didn’t like that argument. In the upper chart below you will see the S&P 500. The lower chart in […]
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Date: December 4, 2023
Bulls Surprising Even Me
The markets had a nice mark up into month-end on Thursday. It was one of those “funny” last 30 minutes when everything suddenly jumped higher as if someone was manipulating it. Surely, that would never happen. We have the final month of the year beginning today and it is a positive seasonal day. A week ago, I thought the S&P 500 would stop before it hit new highs for 2023, but today, I guess that’s where it’s headed which is […]
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Date: December 1, 2023
Stocks Look Full As Gold Breaks Out & Bears Scream About Small Caps
Post-Thankgiving, I slightly tempered my bullish exuberance over the very short-term, meaning the next few weeks. It wasn’t enough to take any meaningful action as the downside looked limited and I do not have high conviction. But the market looks a bit tired and full from its big November meal. And for those who pay attention to the trades I post at the end of each blog, we have done very little across our 18 strategies over the past few […]
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Date: November 29, 2023
Some Weakness Possible – Volatility At New Lows
I hope you had a terrific Thanksgiving holiday and long weekend if you were able to take Friday off. We hosted as usual, but my mom came over, commandeered the kitchen and did most of the cooking to give my wife a little break. Of course, I did my best to open the wine and watch football. After all, America’s Team was playing on America’s holiday. And winning in grand fashion I might add. Yes, the Dallas Cowboys are great […]
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Date: November 27, 2023
Break Free from Financial Biases for a More Comfortable Retirement
As a fee-only fiduciary financial advisor in New Haven, I’ve seen firsthand how financial biases can be the unseen pitfalls in the path of many people seeking a comfortable retirement. Using proactive, defensive retirement planning and sophisticated investment management strategies, we aim to help you prepare for and manage market volatility and other factors that can negatively impact your hard-earned retirement assets. But here’s the catch: even savvy investors succumb to potential biases that cloud judgment and cause poor financial […]
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Date: November 27, 2023
It MUST Be a Bear Market
For the past 14 months, I have pounded the table that the bear market ended in October 2022. To be 100% accurate I started this thesis in late September 2022 and it’s all in the blog archives, the good, the bad and the ugly. It’s also in the media section. I have watched so many people turn bearish from June through August 2022 after stocks had already seen the vast majority of their bear market damage. And those folks largely […]
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Date: November 22, 2023
The Three Musketeers Have Fallen – What Will The Bears Say Now?
This is going to be a quick update as I am catching a flight home. Throughout the Q3 pullback I often discussed the three keys for a durable bottom. They were crude oil, rates and the dollar. I continually received push back that there was no way rates and crude could go lower although people always seem to hate the dollar. Well my friends, price never lies. Let’s start with crude oil. I would say $96 t0 $72 is a […]
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Date: November 20, 2023
***Q3 Client Update***
The third quarter of 2023 was another tale of two halves. The markets came off a strong first half of 2023 and kept on going in July. That’s where the fun ended. So many investors who sat on the sidelines for the first 6 months of 2023 couldn’t stand the gain regret and finally plowed into the stock market and other “risk on” assets in July. We know this factually by looking at money flows, sentiment surveys and the options […]
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Date: November 17, 2023
WOWZA
That was some rally on Tuesday! And that was on the heels of a powerful rally off of the lowest levels we saw in October. I have to admit that Tuesday even surprised me a bit. You know my forecast. You know I have been positive on the “risk on” markets, but Tuesday was one of those days where they rip the faces off of the bears. It was an OUCH day. The bulls had plenty of those in 2022, […]
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Date: November 15, 2023
Bears Couldn’t Even Muster 1 Day of Follow Through
So much for Thursday downside reversal mattering. My thinking for a consolidation of mild pullback fell apart an hour into trading on Friday. If you want an example of how strong the bulls are and how powerful the rally is, that epitomizes it. There was a set up for one thing and the exact opposite occurred. The rally was broad-based and the “risk on” sectors led. On Friday after the markets closed rating agency, Moody’s, downgraded the U.S. to negative […]
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Date: November 13, 2023
Another Bullish Thrust But Some Mild Weakness First
After a fierce 8-day rally, stocks reversed hard on Thursday and look to start consolidating some gains or mildly pull back 1-2%. The oft-mentioned 4400 area on the S&P 500 is where I show the blue, horizontal line. Thursday was the second time the market has approached that area and turned back. I sense that three times a charm and stocks will be going through later this month on their way to 4500 and higher into 2024. On Wednesday I […]
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Date: November 10, 2023
Facts About The Bottom and the Breadth Thrust
The stock market bottomed on October 27th. Fact. We didn’t have a spike in the Volatility Index. Fact. Markets rarely bottom on Fridays and rarely when they close near their lows for the day. Facts. It ain’t easy. Since the bottom we saw a very powerful rally with the right indices and sectors leading. The upside was so strong that a number of thrusts hit the market, rendering it with escape velocity, like a rocket that clears the earth’s gravity. […]
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Date: November 8, 2023
It Wasn’t Easy But The Bottom Came In As Expected
Good morning from Chicago, one of my favorite cities to visit where the weather is very mild and pleasant in contrast to my visit to South Carolina last week where I woke up to 34 and cold. Go figure. I am in town for the annual National Association of Active Investment Managers Outlook conference where I have proudly been in leadership for more years than I can remember. It’s a trade association very near and dear to my heart as […]
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Date: November 6, 2023
