Apple, Amazon and Employment Report Lead to a Big Friday
As I wrote about the other day, markets were not happy that second rate rating firm, Fitch, using an odd combination of stale and subjective data downgraded the debt of the U.S. Stocks and bonds were hit hard, each losing more than 1%. As I tweeted on Thursday morning, more selling should be expected before the first short-term low is in. My tune remains the same. The bull market is alive and reasonably well. This pullback was one I started […]
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Date: August 4, 2023
U.S. Downgraded Again as Seasonal Trends for August Are Not Bullish
August is here and the month doesn’t have an upward seasonal bias. Overall, it is one of the more challenging months of the year, coming in at 0% on average, but weaker lately. The first day of August is also the single worst first day of the month in the calendar. However (isn’t there always?), because of how well July closed, the first week of August is a seasonally strong period. In other words, buy weakness to begin the month […]
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Date: August 2, 2023
Use a Retirement Planner to Avoid Five Critical Retirement Mistakes
Retirement is a distinct phase of life that everyone aspires to reach. It is the time to enjoy the rewards of a lifetime of hard work, saving, and sacrifice. However, it’s important to know that successful retirements require strategic planning by an expert to avoid critical errors that have dire consequences. That’s where the services of an experienced retirement planner in Woodbridge, CT, can be the difference between winning and losing the race. In this article, we’ll share five of […]
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Date: August 1, 2023
Thunderstorms Brewing
It cannot be July 31st. No way. Can we get summer to slow down a bit? I am sure those in the sweltering and parched areas of the country don’t want to see that, but I do, especially after we finally got a glorious Sunday with golden sunshine, low humidity and temps in the low 80s. It was so nice that after we grilled and ate outside last night, I built a fairly substantial bonfire that began slowly with some […]
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Date: July 31, 2023
Bears See Nasty Reversal & Soaring Rates
The Fed did exactly what everyone knew they would and for the first time in many meetings, Jay Powell’s press conference was boring and plain vanilla. Stocks did very little which is what the model suggested after the rally muted much of the usual edge. Thursday brought lots of fireworks with stocks ripping higher at the open, only to completely fade by the close. If you asked me at 10am what the odds were of losing that entire gain in […]
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Date: July 28, 2023
Fed to Hike 1/4% – Equilibrium Remains – Bears Still Embarrassingly Wrong
Jay Powell and his friends on the FOMC are going to hike interest rates by 1/4% today at 2pm. That is all but certain. Between now and then, the model of the day calls for plus or minus 0.50% in the S&P 500 and then a bigger move after 2pm. Given the strength into the meeting and the fact that the stock market sits at a fresh 52-week high, the odds and edge are somewhat muted and not worth the […]
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Date: July 26, 2023
Can Stocks Rally With the Fed Selling Billions?
Over the weekend I was chatting with an industry colleague who is usually bearish. He’s a glass quarter full kinda guy, but super, super bright and always has high conviction. At the beginning of the year we had this fierce debate about how 2023 would treat the stock market. You already know how bullish I was. His position was that there was no way stocks could rally simply because the Fed was selling assets from its balance sheet to the […]
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Date: July 24, 2023
Tesla & Netflix Offering Clues as I Start to Temper Exuberant Enthusiasm
The markets gave us an interesting clue to where the rally stands on Thursday. Both Tesla and Netflix reported earnings that were generally fine. There were a few tiny pieces of negativity, but nothing really big. Both stocks were hit hard as was the NASDAQ 100. You can see Tesla and Netflix below, which we own in our Unloved Gems strategy. Look all the way to the far right of the chart to see the decline. Both stocks have had […]
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Date: July 21, 2023
Houston, We Have Another Liftoff
Over the past few weeks I mentioned a number of opportunities in the markets as well as posting the trades we made to execute. I talked about gold bottoming at the end of June. I discussed some moves away from the big winners like the NASDAQ 100 and into lower risk areas like the Dow Industrials. It’s not rocket science. It’s prudent movement of funds to take advantage of solid risk/reward set ups. That doesn’t mean they will always end […]
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Date: July 19, 2023
Happy 9 Month Birthday to The Bull Market
Yes; I am very happy and I had a great weekend! Someone emailed me concerned that I did not add my usual two cents about the upcoming weekend. In my rush to bang out Friday’s blog, I must have forgotten. Fear not, we spent Friday night with a bunch of couples at our friends’ house with some gourmet food and great conversation. Mother Nature wasn’t so kind for most of the weekend, but I did squeeze in some outdoor activities […]
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Date: July 17, 2023
