Rumors of the US Dollar’s Demise Have Been Much Exaggerated
The second segment I did on Yahoo Finance last Thursday was not a new one for long time readers. As many of you know, I turned very positive on the US Dollar right about the time Bear Sterns needed a bailout in March 2008. That was long before any QE (money printing) began. Historically, the dollar spent most of its life oscillating between 80 and 120 on the US Dollar Index, an index containing a basket of currencies with the […]
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Date: August 18, 2014
The Most Hated Bull Market Continues
Yesterday, I spent a jam packed, fun filled day in New York City with client meetings and media interviews. Although I don’t enjoy the commute in and out of the city, I do enjoy the hustle and bustle as long as the weather is good since I like to walk as much as I can. I absolutely hate taking dirty, smelly cabs that take forever to get around, but I will hop on the subway when I have to go […]
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Date: August 15, 2014
M&A Hot Means Market Not?
Merger and acquisition activity has long been a trusty sign of a maturing equity market cycle By Jeff Benjamin Jul 16, 2014 @ 11:55 am (Updated 3:54 pm) EST Print E-mail Reprints 23Shares Twenty-First Century Fox Inc.’s offer Wednesday to pay $92 billion for Time Warner Inc. is all the proof anyone needs that the M&A market is hotter than ever. In mid-day trading, Time Warner shares were up almost 16% in an otherwise flat equity market. As economic […]
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Date: August 15, 2014
Reading the Short-Term Tea Leaves
To reiterate a comment I think I have made each and every week for at least three years, the bull market may be old and wrinkly, but it’s not dead. It continues to be the most disavowed and hated bull market of the modern investing era and that’s why it will live on. On an almost daily basis, another “market professional” comes out of the woodwork on why stocks should not be at these levels. Several good friends of mine […]
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Date: August 12, 2014
The Bounce The Bounce The Bounce
In the spirit of Herve Villechaize telling Ricardo Montelban on Fantasy Island, “Da Plane Da Plane Da Plane”, here is the bounce, the bounce, the bounce. After writing about the market bouncing and what was “supposed” to happen in several posts, stocks cooperated on Friday with what has been described as a “huge rally”. I am always keenly aware of what questions I am asked by the average investor as well as the comments. Over the weekend, folks I spoke […]
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Date: August 11, 2014
Getting Anywhere?
Early Monday I wrote about the market setting up for a bounce. And that was certainly the case on Monday. Tuesday, however, was a different story as stocks gave back all of Monday’s gains and then some. Wednesday’s solid action, once again, puts the stock market on bounce alert. I keep using the word “bounce” instead of rally because it looks like there needs to be some more work on the downside before the current pullback wraps up. With each […]
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Date: August 7, 2014
Monday is Bounce Day
After some normal volatility on Friday, the bulls held their own and are positioned to see some green as the trading week opens. There are two scenarios I am watching here. The first is the lows hit on Friday. If the major indices close below those levels sooner than later, we should see some trap door, elevator shaft, immediate selling. That’s the more bearish path. Scenario number two has the market bouncing for a few days and then rolling over […]
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Date: August 4, 2014
Watching the Bounce
Thursday’s shellacking in the stock market was a bit unusual given how close in time stocks were to all time highs. As I mentioned in Street$marts, my screen was a complete sea of red except for the instruments that go up when stocks go down. As I have over said over and over and over, based on history, the bull market remains alive. In the short-term, it looks like the best case for the bulls would be a few days […]
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Date: August 1, 2014
2nd Fed Trend a Success… Pullback is Here
Yesterday, I wrote about the Fed statement day trends. History suggested, a pre announcement market of +-0.50% which was spot on with the day closing green; it closed neutral. Today, the post Fed model called for lower prices which is spot on as well. This is all in the context of the pullback I forecast two days ago. Today’s action so far is nasty with my entire screen red except for the items that go up during a down market. […]
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Date: July 31, 2014
Fed Statement Day Trend
That certainly felt like a quick six weeks since the Fed’s last statement day and press conference! Today, Yellen & Co. conclude their two day meeting with a statement to be released at 2:00 pm est and no press conference. As has been the case since the first taper last December, the Fed will reduce their assets purchases by another $10 billion to $25 billion per month on their to wrapping up quantitative easing this fall. There has been a […]
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Date: July 30, 2014
