Nice Bounce But Not Convincing
Long-term bond yields have come down over the past two weeks. Ya know what that leads to in this climate? Stocks have bounced nicely over the past week although I sense that yesterday was the day of recognition, the day when people realized there has been a little rally. Usually, we see some weakness a day or two later. At this point the S&P 500 has regained a little more than half of what it lost. If my thesis regarding […]
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Date: August 30, 2023
BUT BUT BUT Nvidia Had a Blowout Quarter
When I got back from the Midwest on Wednesday night my middle son immediately wanted to discuss Nvdia’s absolute blowout earnings report. Before you start thinking that he’s another example of insanely bullish sentiment on the stock and AI in general, he has been all over AI and the semis for a number of years. He just doesn’t understand the ebb of flow of stock price movement. I told him that given the strong run up in the stock and […]
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Date: August 28, 2023
It’s P Day
A year ago at this time, Fed Chair Jay Powell gave a very short and direct speech at Jackson Hole. Most people were surprised at how short his comments were, but no one misunderstood his powerful message which he followed through on ever since. I do not expect Powell’s speech to be as short as 2022 nor as direct and sharp. I expect him to continue to be mildly hawkish and report that the Fed’s job is almost but not […]
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Date: August 25, 2023
Reversals Abound – All Eyes on Nvidia
Friday’s reversal from early losses looks interesting on a chart for sure as you can see below in the S&P 500, but Tuesday also showed a less impressive reversal. This time it was to the downside. While I expected more from the bulls after Friday, perhaps I am being a bit too impatient. We will have to see. In what has become the most anticipated earnings report in a long time, Nvidia reports after the close today. The chart is […]
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Date: August 23, 2023
State of the Pullback – Where It Ends, When and What to Buy
A new video has been posted! State of the Pullback – Where It Ends, When and What to Buy On Friday we sold RSYYX and levered S&P 500.
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Date: August 20, 2023
5% Pullback Hit – Low at Hand
I remember when COVID hit and NYC was the epicenter. The hysteria around metro living was pervasive and most predicted mass exoduses from the major cities for years and years to come. After all, who in their right mind would ever get into an elevator with other people? Who would ride subways and busses packed with others? Well, as I walked across town, the city was more crowded than ever, both in vehicles and walking. I didn’t see a single […]
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Date: August 18, 2023
OUCH Day on Tuesday
Tuesday was an “OUCH” day. The stock market was set up for a bounce and perhaps a multi-day bounce as I wrote on Monday. The bears pulled the rug out and it was a day that hurt the bulls. As you can see at the end of this post we ended up selling a good number of positions as the set ups failed and I was wrong. I mentioned before, but it’s important enough to reiterate. A few weeks ago […]
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Date: August 16, 2023
Pullback Not Over But Multi-Day Bounce Setting Up
Good Monday morning everyone. Mine began by being 5 minutes early. So, I decided to move a bag of fertilizer from the front of the garage to the back. I had to squeeze by my car which didn’t look to difficult. But it is a Monday morning. On the way to the back I smashed my left hand into my side view mirror of my car. Seeing stars quickly ensued. Then the swelling, throbbing and transition to black and blue. […]
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Date: August 14, 2023
Hard to Find Places to Hide
Stocks are through with most of earnings season and you know what? The major stock market indices haven’t gone anywhere and I don’t not believe they are set up to explode higher just yet. My tempered enthusiasm remains. Besides the big picture, short-term challenges, I am really having trouble finding things I want to own, regardless of my market take. I thought low volatility ETFs like SPLV would get some love along with utilities and staples, but the plunge in […]
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Date: August 11, 2023
Bull Market Intact. Q3 Pullback Intact. Bounce Setting Up.
Sorry for the late post. I just returned from Scotland yesterday and I am playing catch up, and one of my bags decided it wanted some time in London before returning to the States. It was a small, but motley crew and an epic trip to the Highlands. Only 1507 pictures taken. As you know, I have greatly tempered my enthusiasm for stocks over the past week or so. The bull market remains intact. Even this big leg […]
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Date: August 9, 2023
